TEAM PREVIEWS: THE TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Introduction:

Tampa Bay is good. It took me a long time and a lot of staring to come to that conclusion but there you have it. On paper they have two VERY good scoring lines, a third/checking line made up of some wily veterans and can comfortably put together a fourth line of kids and see what develops out of them.

The question with Tampa lies where it seemingly always does; in their own zone and particularly in net. Another question. Is Barry Melrose really capable of coaching a team of such notoriously strong personalities after years spent in the analyst chair at ESPN? Gone is the controversial and abrasive John Tortorella, who seemingly annoyed everyone during his stint with the Lightning (highlights here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ee6mT8y5C34). The Mullet will have his work cut out for him. He seems to have the right idea though if his powerplay thoughts are any indication http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj6wuWxGFB8

Key Departures:
Dan Boyle

Big, big loss here. Boyle is a powerplay specialist. He was particularly skilled at running THIS powerplay and knowing the tendencies of each of the personalities that made it work. With him gone someone else will have to step up. Both I, and perhaps more importantly Barry Melrose, believe it will be Matt Carle.

New Faces:
Radim Vrbata
Ryan Malone
Matt Carle
Mark Recchi
Gary Roberts
Vaclav Prospal
Olaf Kolzig
Steven Stamkos

I miss anyone? Well Adam Hall but fantasy wise he isn't relevant. Oh and if you want to be picky you could include the three players acquired from Dallas for Brad Richards but then I'd have to put Brad Richards above and I only did that with Hossa on the Thrashers to be cheeky.

Vrbata enters the fray in Tampa after his strongest, and really only, fantasy relevant season. With the Lightning trying to keep the scoring spread out by giving St. Louis his own line Vrbata is likely to see ice time with the Lecavalier/Prospal unit.

Malone comes in as the presumptive left winger for St. Louis, because of Lecavalier's history and chemistry with Prospal. He'll still see plenty of ice time and the second line spot is his to lose.

Carle, by Merlose's own admission, is Boyle's successor as QB of the powerplay. He's shown promise in this role, and is a former Hobey Baker winner, but will have to deliver his best play this season in order to keep it.

Recchi and Roberts are almost certainly not fantasy relevant. Well... Roberts for sure isn't. Recchi did show some promise in his stint with Atlanta last season, after Pittsburgh waived him. He scored 40 points in 58 games and even put up 19 of those on the powerplay. He won't get that kind of ice time here. He was signed to be a third line role player and a locker room presence.

After shining in his stint with Philly, Prospal returns to Tampa to, once again, set up Vincent Lecavalier. He's excelled in this role over the last few seasons. Without a big contract on the line this year though it is unclear whether his play will have the same urgency.

Kolzig too finds himself in the mentor role but this time to Karri Ramo and Mike Smith. Kolzig is an exremely good backup goalie and should be able to hold up well should he be called on to play for stretches if the youngsters slip up.

Stamkos is a question mark. Drafted first overall this season, the Lightning have indicated that they intend to bring him up this season. If so Stamkos could find himself centering a line of Ryan Malone and Martin St. Louis... or he could instead find himself between Jussi Jokinen and Evgeni Artyuken. Stamkos, as we will discuss below, is very good and worth keeping an eye.

The Offense:

Tampa Bay essentially signed a second and third line in the offseason with the money they freed up by trading Brad Richards and Dan Boyle. Well done. If things like chemistry and playing time didn't matter this team would be unstoppable. They do, however, and thats why they play the games. Nevertheless Tampa's offensive prospects look very bright.

You Want to Draft:
Vincent Lecavalier
Martin St. Louis
Vaclav Prospal
Ryan Malone
Radim Vrbata

Lecavalier is one of the most complete players in hockey... fantasy wise. He does everything except play D, which is why that minus 17 is going to hurt. Its sting is diluted by the fact that he is going to score close to 100 points, take over 300 shots, get you 80-90 PIM, unless he feels like being coached this year, and about 30 points on the powerplay (this year I expect more). Lecavalier is a no brainer in the first round.
FACT: Lecavalier has not scored less then 30 goals since 2001-2002 when he had 20. He and former coach John Tortorella had a public and vicious dislike for eachother. I expect him to be more motivated then ever under new coach Barry Melrose.
FACT 2: (We'll call this Vrbata's fact) In the Stanley Cup finals in 2004 Jarome Iginla and Vincent Lecavalier, did this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_c5fj0r3uk&feature=related, showing to a national audience what hockey is all about and exactly that the game means to those that play it.

The goals have dried up a bit for St. Louis since he and Vinny have been placed on seperate lines, but the assists continue to flow. With only one sub-70 point season in the last 5 St. Louis is one of the surest things in hockey. In that same stretch he has been as low as 61 points and as high as 102. If you believe, like I do, that he's probably an 80ish point player this year you can probably get him at a slight discount. Expect an improvement in plus/minus and powerplay points.
FACT: St. Louis is over a point a game lifetime in the playoffs, scoring 48 points in 45 career postseason contests.

Prospal is one of the world's streakiest players, but he will play with Lecavalier (they have had spectacular chemistry) and he will see powerplay time. Prospal was also pretty fantastic in his brief stint with Philadelphia last season, scoring 14 points in 18 regular season contests before notching another 14 points during their playoff run. Prospal will put up good numbers again this year and will be overlooked in many drafts. Don't make the same mistake.
FACT: Prospal is notoriously streaky. His 33 goals last season were his highest single season tally ever.

Malone and Vrbata are sort of the odd men out here. I expect that at least one of them will have a spectacular season with their new linemates. Vrbata stands a better chance of an explosion, the thought being that if Malone couldn't score 60 with Sidney Crosby who can he score 60 with. Vrbata is the presumptive first line RW, not because he's better then St. Louis but because Tampa spreads the scorers out. Should St. Louis be moved to the top line and these two are centered by ... say... Stamkos then that becomes fairly intriguing as well. Both of these players will be drafted. One will look like a genius move and one less so. If I were a betting man I'd put my money on Vrbata.
FACT: Even if Malone only gets you 50 points his 100 or so PIM might just make him worthwhile, particularly if he gets time on the first powerplay unit.

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Steven Stamkos

Jeff Halpern had a magnificent debut with the Lightning, scoring 18 points in 20 games, mostly centering St. Louis. Unfortunately he will miss several months of this season after he ruptured his ACL in the 2008 World Championships while playing for Team USA. This leaves the door wide open for Steven Stamkos to make his debut with the Lightning

A lot will be expected of the 18 year old in his first professional season. He's had two VERY good years in the OHL, 92 points in 63 games and 105 points in 61 good to be exact. We still don't know what he's going to be capable of on the professional level. That said... he can do this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad4zGlYUy7Y.
FACT: He says he models his game after Alexander Ovechkin and scouts say he uses both his speed, which is blinding, and his body to get position on defenders... maybe you should just go ahead and draft this kid. Hell I might.

The Defense:

You Want to Draft:
Matt Carle

I have to admit that when I first started preparing this post I wasn't sure whether to point you to Carle or Kuba or Ranger... but then I checked the numbers again. Carle may have had an off year but NONE of the defenseman on Tampa Bay were particularly effective on the powerplay. Boyle had the most powerplay points amongst defenseman by FAR and he only played in 37 games. That and Melrose's endorsement above give me confidence in Carle as your powerplay QB. This is a team that can be dominant on the man advantage. Carle should see a return to his 06-07 numbers. If he doesn't he will be replaced.
FACT: Matt Carle had 42 points, 26 of them on the powerplay, in his first full season with the San Jose Sharks in 06-07.

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Paul Ranger
Filip Kuba
Shane O'Brien

I mention Ranger and Kuba because they both had 31 points last year. They do not score on the powerplay and were both minuses and not particularly big on garnering PIM. They aren't the most attractive of D-men... still 31 points is nothing to sneeze at.

O'Brien is here because he managed to get 151 PIM while still getting 21 points. If I can get my goons at D and I can also get points out of them I usually consider that a plus, so O'Brien is a pretty good option for you late in the draft if you are lacking both d-men and PIM but are otherwise comfortable with your offensive categories. And no we're not related. Hey Shane... say hi to Aunt Molly.

The Powerplay:
Lecavalier
St. Louis
Prospal
Malone
Carle

That is my assumption as to the makeup of the first unit, at least at the beginning of the year. Malone will stand in front of the net, presumably what he was signed to do, while Vinny and the Jets pass it around and/or give it to Carle for a hard shot from the point. Carle's presence SHOULD stabilize this unit and if the Mullet is to be believed they'll be shooting plenty.

You're going to see a lot of this. Malone stands in frotn while Prospal and St. Louis float around down low. Vinny will pinch in from the point and Prospal will feed Carle who will fake the shot and pass to Vinny for a rifle from the right circle.

The Goalie(s):

What a mess. But then it always is with this team. So Mike Smith might be good. He certainly seemed to be while he was in Dallas, but he pretty much got lit up in the 13 games he played for Tampa last season (putting up only 3 wins a 2.79 GAA and .893 SV% in that span).

Ramo's numbers weren't much better. He won 7 of 20 starts with 3.03 GAA and .899 SV%. Yuck right? I expect Tampa will let Ramo get some more seasoning and start the season with Smith and Kolzig as the goalies. Smith will have the starting gig provided he doesn't lose it. With expectations high for this team the pressure will be on.
FACT: Its tough to be a goalie. Mike Smith has one major injury in his career... he suffered a concussion off a 100 MPH slapshot to the head.

The Verdict:

While Tampa has the potential to be a powerhouse offensively it remains to be seen whether their defense and their goaltending will be aboard for the ride. Of the three teams in the Southeast whom I feel have the potential to make the postseason I think Tampa's grip on a playoff spot is the most tenuous. Draft Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Prospal without reservation. Carle, Vrbata, Malone and Stamkos all interest me to varying degrees as well.