Breaking The Trap: Top 150

Going into the regular season these are your top 150 players. Taken into account here are: last year's performance, this year's projections, facts we have been able to glean from training camp and... of course... position scarcity.

This is just a list. If you want more information on any of these players, or an idea of how each player ranks within their own position, that information can be viewed by following this link:
http://breakingthetrap.blogspot.com/search/label/Player%20Rankings This links to every article relevant to the player rankings, starting with this one and going all the way back to the top 40 centers.

If you are observant, you might notice that some players' rankings have changed between this article and the earlier postional rankings. There could be several reasons for this, none of which are my lack of attention to detail.

Notable moves due to injury concerns include Sergei Gonchar, Sergei Zubov, Alexei Kovalev, Erik Johnson and Justin Williams.

Schnieder's trade gave a boost to himself but also to Enstrom and Kovalchuk while it downgraded Hainsey (As he will now likely only see time on the second (abysmal) Atlanta unit). Selanne has also moved up as a result of the trade as he will now be signed by Anaheim and play most if not all of the season.

That reminds me, he didn't make the list but you might want to watch Brendan Morrison with Teemu's arrival... just a hunch.

Finally Mats Sundin took a nose dive as it does not appear that there is any resolution to that situation on the horizon.

Take these with a grain of salt... and enjoy.

1. Alexander Ovechkin, LW
2. Sidney Crosby, C
3. Evgeni Malkin, C
4. Jarome Iginla, RW
5. Martin Brodeur, G
6. Henrik Zetterberg, LW
7. Dany Heatley, LW
8. Joe Thornton, C
9. Marian Hossa, RW
10. J.S. Giguere, G
11. Roberto Luongo, G
12. Dion Phaneuf, D
13. Pavel Datsyuk, C
14. Olli Jokinen, C
15. Ilya Kovalchuk, LW
16. Marian Gaborik, RW
17. Evgeni Nabakov, G
18. Niklas Backstrom, G
19. Nicklas Lidstrom, D
20. Daniel Alfredsson, RW
21. Vincent Lecavalier, C
22. Ryan Getzlaf, C
23. Jason Spezza, C
24. Brendan Morrow, LW
25. Henrik Lundqvist, G
26. Nathan Horton, RW
27. Eric Staal, C
28. Rick Nash, LW
29. Chris Osgood, G
30. Pascal Leclaire, G
31. Corey Perry, RW
32. Martin St. Louis, RW
33. Mike Richards, C
34. Marc Savard, C
35. Joe Sakic, C
36. Chris Pronger, D
37. Marty Turco, G
38. Ilya Bryzgalov, G
39. Daniel Sedin, LW
40. Mikka Kipprusoff, G
41. Teemu Selanne, RW
42. Patrick Kane, RW
43. Dan Boyle, D
44. Brian Rafalski, D
45. Brad Richards, C
46. Paul Stastny, C
47. Daniel Briere, C
48. Alexander Semin, LW
49. Michael Cammelleri, LW
50. Marc Andre Fleury, G
51. Zdeno Chara, D
52. Mike Green, D
53. Cristobal Huet, G
54. Martin Biron, G
55. Alexei Kovalev, RW
56. Sergei Gonchar, D
57. Jonathan Toews, C
58. Derek Roy, C
59. Thomas Vanek, LW
60. Carey Price, G
61. Thomas Vokoun, G
62. Scott Niedermayer, D
63. Brian Rolston, LW
64. Chris Kunitz, LW
65. Jason Pominville, RW
66. Nikolai Zherdev, RW
67. Paul Kariya, LW
68. Dan Ellis, G
69. Alexander Frolov, LW
70. Zach Parise, LW
71. Daymond Langkow, C
72. Scott Gomez, C
73. Bryan McCabe, D
74. Jonathan Cheechoo, RW
75. Anze Kopitar, C
76. Ryan Smyth, LW
77. Sheldon Souray, D
78. Shea Weber, D
79. Jose Theodore, G
80. Henrik Sedin, C
81. Erik Cole, RW
82. Ales Hemsky, RW
83. Alex Tanguay, LW
84. Patrice Bergeron, C
85. Nicklas Backstrom, C
86. Saku Koviu, C
87. Andrei Markov, D
88. Wade Redden, D
89. Ed Jovonovski, D
90. Milan Michalek, LW
91. Brian Campbell, D
92. Brad Boyes, RW
93. Scott Hartnell, LW
94. Ryan Miller, G
95. Mathieu Garon, G
96. Sergei Zubov, D
97. Joe Corvo, D
98. Philippe Boucher, D
99. Kimmo Timonen, D
100. Lubomir Visnovsky, D
101. Patrik Elias, LW
102. Simon Gagne, LW
103. Mike Ribiero, C
104. Kevin Bieska, D
105. Braydon Coburn, D
106. Markus Naslund, LW
107. Petr Sykora, RW
108. Jay Bouwmeester, D
109. Ray Whitney, LW
110. Kristian Huselius, LW
111. Steve Stamkos, C
112. Jeff Carter, C
113. Mathieu Schnieder, D
114. Jason Arnott, C
115. Tomas Plekanec, C
116. JP Dumont, RW
117. Keith Tkachuk, LW
118. Dustin Brown, RW
119. Manny Legace, G
120. Ty Conklin, G
121. Dennis Wideman, D
122. Mats Sundin, C
123. Pierre-Marc Bouchard, RW
124. Patrick Marleau, C
125. Rob Blake, D
126. Pavel Kubina, D
127. Cam Ward, G
128. Tim Thomas, G
129. Craig Rivet, D
130. Tomas Kaberle, D
131. Andrej Meszaros, D
132. Brent Burns, D
133. Andrei Kostitsyn, LW
134. Rod Brindamour, C
135. Sean Avery, LW
136. John Michael Liles, D
137. Marek Zidlicky, D
138. Kari Lehtonen, G
139. Mike Smith, G
140. Joni Pitkanen, D
141. Joffrey Lupul, RW
142. Milan Hejduk, RW
143. Pavol Demitra, LW
144. Patrick Sharp, LW
145. Brent Seabrook, D
146. Tobias Enstrom, D
147. Brian Gionta, RW
148. Ryan Malone, LW
149. Shawn Horcoff, C
150. Martin Gerber, G

Drafting Your Defense Just Got Tougher

A couple of quick injury notes:

Erik Johnson to miss entire season with torn ligaments. Golf Carts To Be Hunted as Criminals in St. Louis.

Erik Johnson, THE future of the St. Louis Blues tore the ligaments in his knee stepping out of a golf cart at a team sponsored event. Holy shit. That has to rival Theodore injuring himself slipping on a patch of ice outside of his house... not in the irony department but definitely in the randomness one. St. Louis President John Davidson when asked for a comment said, "Whoa Baby!" We agree John. This one hurts.

Johnson is expected to miss the entire season so obviously don't draft him unless you like having inactive players on your bench. I don't know maybe you're weird. Masochists play fantasy game too right? In fact it's arguable whether anyone BUT masochists play fantasy games but...

Sergei Gonchar dislocates shoulder... recovery time uncertain.

It now appears that Gonchar's mysterious injury in the Penguins first preseason game was a dislocated shoulder. The Penguins have been quiet about it up until now as there was too much swelling to determine whether surgery would or would not be necessary. Now according to Pens GM Ray Shero, Gonchar is considering surgery. A dislocated shoulder is a strange injury in the NHL. Malkin missed just four game from a dislocated shoulder in the preseason last year... but Malkin was 20 and Gonchar is well into his 30's. Of course it all depends upon the severity. I would move Gonchar down several spots in your draft. He will miss the beginning of the season even under the best case scenario and could be out until December under the worst.

With Whitney out until at least December the Pens powerplay situation becomes murky at best. Expect everyone with a pulse on that team to be trying their hand at the point for the first few games of the season. The early edge looks to go to Daryl Sydor (experience) or Alex Goligoski (potential).

This is a gut check for Pittsburgh. Their depth is being tested ad every weakness is being exploited. Rememer this is still the team that held onto their division lead without Crosby... but with Hossa... and Malone... and Whitney and Gonchar. Uh oh. I'd say the Rangers and Flyers odds in Vegas just went up. In related news this is apparently video of the most recent Penguins practice http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0paUfGmB-Q

Burgeoning Talent

PATRICE! Bergeron lit it up in his return last night. I know its preseason and I know we shouldn't get excited about preseason (preseason so far wrapup coming thursday night) but Bergeron looked healthy, and more than that, ready for serious competition. The reason I'm taking the time out to highlight Bergeron, other then it being a great story, is that Bergeron is not a prospect. No one is waiting around to see whether he'll make the team. Bergeron's story is different. Many "experts were waiting to see whether or not he'd be capable of playing the game at the same level. With a four point performance in his first game back Bergeron has answered those questions with a resounding, "Yes I can."

Bergeron already has a 70 and 73 point season under his belt. If he remains healthy this season I expect he will be hovering somewhere in the high 70's low 80's. He is a concern to be a minus, particularly with the questions swirling around the Bruins net and the absence (for how long?) of Zdeno Chara.

I had Bergeron ranked at 29 in my preseason rankings for centers. I would move him up to at least 21 (right below Gomez) based upon his performance last night.

Sorry... the rest of the D-men

Serious computer issues got in the way of this post. My apologies.

Tier 6:

43. Nicklas Kronwall, Det
Projected Stats: 8 G, 28 A, +21, 54 PIM, 10 PP, 154 SOG

Kronwall would make a great number 1 defenseman somewhere. He has the skills. He has the physicality, but here he is a number three at best. Draft him late if you need plus minus.

44. Duncan Keith, Chi
Projected Stats: 9 G, 22, A, + 18, 68 PIM, 5 PP, 142 SOG

Keith scored most of his points at even strength last year, so Campbell's arrival shouldn't affect him much. Again if you need +/- late in teh draft Keith isn't a bad place to look.

45. Ville Koistinen, Nsh
Projected Stats: 8 G, 26 A, +16, 32 PIM, 18 PP, 104 SOG

Koistinen showed a lot of potential in limited time this year. He is a great sleeper pick but will have to fight through a very very deep Nashville D for playing time. I'd take him higher if he were anywhere else... other then maybe Detroit and Chicago.

46. Ryan Suter, Nsh
Projected Stats: 9 G, 24 A, +4, 68 PIM, 12 PP, 140 SOG

I guess which Nashville D-man you like better depends on what you need at this point of the draft and your tolerance for risk. Koistinen, in my opinion, has a higher upside, but Suter has been consistently good for a couple of years now. If you need PIM absolutley take him over Koistinen. If you don't I think its a tougher call.

47. Erik Johnson, StL
Projected Stats: 8 G, 30 A, -10, 32 PIM, 20 PP, 125 SOG

Johnson's status has been placed in doubt recently with his "Freak Golf Cart Accident" that injured his knee over the weekend. He's worth the risk this late as Johnson showed flashes of brilliance last year.

48. Sami Salo, Van
Projected Stats: 10 G, 24 A, +8, 34 PIM, 18 PP, 133 SOG

Salo is an injury risk to be sure, like most of the Vancouver D, but he is pretty consistently adequate. Jeez... that sounds like the job evaluation from hell.

49. Paul Martin, NJ
Projected Stats: 5 G, 26 A, + 15, 20 PIM, 15 PP, 101 SOG

See its not that I hate Paul Martin. I think he is a solid number 2 or 3 d-man on any NHL team... but he's not the Devils' number 2 or 3 he is their undisputed number 1. Sigh.

50. Matt Carle, TB
Projected Stats: 10 G, 27 A, -2, 32 PIM, 22 PP, 120 SOG

I still think he is going to have a nice bounceback season, even with Meszaros. At Mr. Insignificant he's a fine home run swing. Don't take him much higher then here though.

Some other considerations:

Number 1: Someone has to play point for Ottawa on the powerplay

So... who are the candidates?

Filip Kuba, Brian Lee, Cristoph Schubert, Alexandre Picard

In the preseason Picard and Lee have been seeing a fair amount of time on the point, but really that could mean anything. Lee is widely believed to be the heir apparent, but no one thought that he'd be taking the mantle quite so soon. Kuba has done it, with mixed results, for stretches of the last two seasons in Tampa. Schubert might end up a forward altogehter. This is something you really want to keep an eye on and you might want to pick your candidate and take a swing in the draft. Whoever is playing point for Heatly/Spezza/Alfie is very very valuable. If I had a gun to my head I would take Lee.

Number 2: Ok so other then Lee who are your sleepers?

Drew Doughty on Los Angeles, Kris Russell on Columbus (someone has to quarterback that powerplay now that Hainsey is gone), Cam Barker on Chicago (going to break out eventually, but still too low on the depth chart), Marc Staal on the New York Rangers (similar depth issues), Chris Campoli on the New York Islanders, Jack Johnson on Los Angeles (who will be good eventually I just don't know if this team can make anyone fantasy relevant), and Alex Goligoski on Pittsburgh (someone has to eat up Whitney's minutes).

Number 3: Speaking of Whitney where the hell is he on your list?

I'm glad you asked Put him in that last tier if you want. He had surgery in the offseason that will see him out until January. You never know how a player is going to be after surgery, particularly defeders... particularly offensive ones who if they lose a half a step lose all of their fantasy value. But draft him if what you are really looking for is a half a season from a guy that had one really really good one.

Number 4: Who just missed the list?

Jaroslav Spacek, Dan Hamhuis, Shane O'Brien, Fracois Beauchemin, and Tom Poti.

That concludes our pre-draft rankings.

Player Rankings: Tier 5 D-men

Tier 5:

31. Andrej Meszaros, TB
Projected Stats: 10 G, 34 A, -4, 68 PIM, 32 PP, 167 SOG

Meszaros found a willing buyer in Tampa. He goes from one great powerplay situation to another is the likely heir apparent to Dan Boyle's powerplay throne. He will, I suspect, receive stiff competition from Carle, but should start the season dishing it from the point.

32. Brent Burns, Minn
Projected Stats: 13 G, 30 A, +10, 74 PIM, 21 PP, 148 SOG

Wow. Before Zidlicky? Yes. But Espn ranks... I KNOW WHERE ESPN RANKS HIM. Espn takes points too highly at this position though. Burns does a lot of everything and he was a high first round draft pick by Minnesota. He is only going to get better. Zidlicky's arrival DOES raise some questions about Burns' ice time however which is why he didn't make Tier 4.

33. John-Michael Liles, Col
Projected Stats: 9 G, 34 A, +4, 24 PIM, 29 PP, 172 SOG

JM cannot possibly be as useless as he was last year... can he? Liles, like the rest of the team suffered without Stasny and Sakic. Everyone is healthy to start the season, expect a slight bump in his numbers as a result.

34. Marek Zidlicky, Minn
Projected Stats: 7 G, 36 A, +7, 66 PIM, 24 PP, 122 SOG

"We are no longer the knights who say Ni we are now the knights who say icky icky icky Marek Zidlicky" Look... if he explodes then I'm sorry. But every talented d-man that has ever gone to Minnesota to play point almost immediately disappears into Lemaire's system. Minnesota, where if you want to play offense you have to risk being fired. Zids should be fine, but if his points take dip then, like Kaberle, there isn't a whole lot of interest here.

35. Joni Pitkanen, Car
Projected Stats: 9 G, 38 A, +2, 72 PIM, 26 PP, 100 SOG

Pity about the last couple seasons... sigh. Pitkanen had a great rookie campaign and has yet to deliver on that promise. The plus side... he's only 24 and will be competing for powerplay time with Joe Corvo, if not sharing it. Pitkanen has a lot of potential and should be drafted as such.

36. Brent Seabrook, Chi
Projected Stats: 9 G, 27 A, +15, 94 PIM, 18 PP, 154 SOG

No powerplay time and lower point totals aside, Seabrook is the future of this Blackhawks team, along with Cam Barker, on the blue line. Campbell is the present though. Seabrook is a good 4th D-man until he starts getting serious powerplay minutes.

37. Michal Rozsival, NYR
Projected Stats: 11 G, 27 A, +7, 84 PIM, 18 PP, 133 SOG

Is he better without Jaromir Jagr? Or did a lot of his value just run off to Russia? Time will tell.

38. Ron Hainsey, Atl
Projected Stats: 9 G, 32 A, -8, 54 PIM, 28 PP, 170 SOG

From one bad team to another, Hainsey will steal away some of Enstrom's powerplay time and/or they will play together (more likely) and mutually benefit each other. I can't stress how bad this Atlanta team is though. Really. Its horrendous.

39. Mattias Ohlund, Van
Projected Stats: 11 G, 22 A, -4, 102 PIM, 19 PP, 172 SOG

Oft-injured but always useful, Ohlund doesn't do much outside of PIM and SOG but at this stage of the draft those are harder and harder to get in the same package.

40. Adrian Aucoin, Cgy
Projected Stats: 10 G, 24 A, +12, 46 PIM, 20 PP, 135 SOG

Case in point. Aucoin had a really solid comeback season last year. It should continue this year as he is still the second best option in Calgary.

41. Tobias Enstrom, Atl
Projected Stats: 6 G, 33 A, -4, 48 PIM, 28 PP, 124 SOG

Call it the Kovalchuk factor. Enstrom had a very impressive rookie campaign, and while I think Hainsey is the safe bet on this team Enstrom is one of the best "Upside" picks late in this draft. Prepare for the "Atlanta-factor" though which roughly translates to bad plus-minus.

42. Mark Streit, NYI
Projected Stats: 8 G, 38 A, -15, 24 PIM, 26 PP, 140 SOG

Yes he had 62 points last year. Why am I knocking him down so far? The Islanders leading scorer had 49 points last year. Yea. Its like that. Streit isn't Bobby Orr and he's just been signed by one of the worst offensive teams in the game. Adjust his value accordingly. I did.

Player Rankings: Tier 4 D-men

Tier 4:

22. Kevin Bieska, Van
Projected Stats: 11 G, 27 A, -3, 140 PIM, 24 PP, 176 SOG

Let me get this part out of the way. I don't believe in Kevin Bieska. He had an out of nowhere season two years ago and then got injured last year, along with every other defenseman on Vancouver, before we could find out what he was. That said, there isn't a whole lot else on this team. He'll get points, and the PIM shouldn't be a problem either. He's probably a decent grab at this stage.

23. Jay Bouwmeester, Fla
Projected Stats: 14 G, 29 A, +3, 70 PIM, 22 PP, 180 SOG

He's going to be looking up points to warrant the big money he is going to be seeking in the offseason. McCabe's arrival means he might not get it as it will diminish his role on the powerplay a bit. Keep that in mind. All the talent in the world though...

24. Braydon Coburn, Phi
Projected Stats: 9 G, 32 A, +16, 88 PIM, 28 PP, 165 SOG

We're starting with the guys with upside in this tier. For the record the ranks get a little fuzzy after this point. There are "groups" of guys with similar value... you might think of them as tiers. Tier 4 is where "ranks" kind of stop to have meaning. Its all about what you need and who you believe in from this point forward. Coburn had a fantastic start with the Flyers this year. He'll see more ice time and first unit powerplay time this year. Great upside.

25. Dennis Wideman, Bos
Projected Stats: 13 G, 27 A, +6, 72 PIM, 22 PP, 178 SOG

Wideman broke out last year on Boston. I skeptical of many of the people wearing the spoked B this year but perhaps none more then Wideman. Nevertheless Wideman was all around good last season. He's worth the risk.

26. Rob Blake, SJ
Projected Stats: 10 G, 26 A, +4, 90 PIM, 21 PP, 162 SOG

Blake is getting on in years but he still takes shots on the powerplay and still punches people when he's had enough. The plus/minus (his biggest issue last season) shouldn't be a problem on this team. He's a safe bet.

27. Mathieu Schnieder, uh...
Projected Stats: 12 G, 32 A, ..., 64 PIM, ..., 160-180 SOG

OK so I don't know where he's going... and that significantly affects the plus/minus, powerplay points and Shots on goal... but this is about where he should go in any event unless he somehow stays on Anaheim... then move him down. Niedermayer and Pronger are just too much to overcome as it relates to ice time.

28. Pavel Kubina, Tor
Projected Stats: 10 G, 27 A, -2, 118 PIM, 22 PP, 142 SOG

Tough call here between Kubina and Kaberle for who will survive/benefit the exodus in Toronto. I'm betting that Kubina will still get "some" points and even if he doesn't he does enough of the other things to not be a total waste on your roster.

29. Craig Rivet, Buff
Projected Stats: 6 G, 30 A, +10, 102 PIM, 22 PP, 115 SOG

Not a lot of points or shots but everything else looks good. Rivet is one of the last defenders you should be able to grab that will get you PIM while still delivering in most every other category.

30. Tomas Kaberle, Tor
Projected Stats: 6 G, 40 A, -10, 24 PIM, 26 PP, 130 SOG

Inverse Rivet. Kubina has the potential to get you quite a few points, but will likely be hurt by the absence of, well, everyone on Toronto. Be cautious. He doesn't get Kubina's PIM so if his points drop off he is virtually useless to you.

Player Rankings: Tier 3 D-men

With the Mathieu Schneider thing not looking like it will clear up anytime soon (rumors of several trades are in the air) I decided that I couldn't wait any longer to post the rest of the d-men rankings. Burke came out and admitted that he is trying to get Teemu signed so I guess go ahead and move him up in your right wing rankings (though I still like him where he is) and that he had rejected several offers for Schneider before putting him on waivers. It will be interesting to see how this plays out from both a fantasy hockey perspective and a real world one. OK...

Tier 3:

10. Bryan McCabe, Fla
Projected Stats: 12 G, 36 A, +3, 124 PIM, 28 PP, 175 SOG

McCabe's breakout didn't really happen until he came to Toronto. Now there are two theories on this. The popular theory is what I like to call the "Duh... Mats Sundin" theory. I think it pretty much explains itself. The other theory, my theory, is that in 01-02 when McCabe really broke out he was 25... which is prime time for a d-man. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it takes defensemen a while to develop in this league. Anyway depending on which theory you subscribe to, McCabe's move to South Florida is either a good one or a bad one for his fantasy value. I think he and Bouwmeester will be a deadly combination on the point this year. Also they can pair McCabe with any number of responsible defensemen at even strength. He's a steal if he falls much below this.

11. Sheldon Souray, Edm
Projected Stats: 15 G, 30 A, -8, 128 PIM, 32 PP, 214 SOG

Hey remember how awesome Souray was that one year when he was playing on the point with Markov in Montreal and how he like scored a billion goals and all of them were on the powerplay and other then his big fat minus he was a really solid fantasy d-man. Who do you think is better? Markov or Visnovsky? Just saying.

12. Shea Weber, Nash
Projected Stats: 15 G, 35 A, +8, 62 PIM, 31 PP, 222 SOG

I'm ranking Weber fairly ambitiously here. I don't think you'll be disappointed. Weber put up similar numbers two seasons ago (scoring more goals but getting fewer assists) without powerplay time. With Zidlicky and Timonen departing since then the way seems to be clear for Weber to own the point. He and the other talented Nashville d-men (Suter, Koistitsyn, and Hamhuis to just name the ones that will make this list) will compete for it all season. Ultimately I think it will be Koistitsyn's and Weber's to lose. Shots seem high to you? Weber was averaging three shots a game last season. That's what that looks like when you project it out over 82 games.

13. Andrei Markov, Mon
Projected Stats: 13 G, 41 A, +1, 54 PIM, 28 PP, 142 SOG

Even with the "Montreal Discount" I've been applying liberally this offseason, because of my assumption that the powerplay can't possibly be as good as last season, Markov is a solid number 2 d-man. The goals are a relatively new addition for Markov but the assists have been there for a season or 2 now. If anything is going down it will be his tally's, both even strength and on the powerplay. His helpers should stay pretty constant though.

14. Sergei Zubov, Dal
Projected Stats: 9 G, 46 A, +12, 31 PIM, 31 PP, 162 SOG

Zubov, at 38, was on pace for his best season ever last year before going down to injury. He is still the best option on the point for Dallas, and he's still very very good. He's been a very healthy player throughout his career and should rebound nicely this season. He's only this low because of his lack of PIM.

15. Wade Redden, NYR
Projected Stats: 11 G, 40 A, +13, 66 PIM, 33 PP, 168 SOG

I think that's Redden's floor this year. You'll probably be able to get him lower then this since the entire hockey world except for the Rangers seemed to think that Brian Campbell was better then him this offseason. Expect a great year for this former second overall pick. He's out of the soap opera of Ottawa and under the spotlight of New York. I think he'll fit in just fine.

16. Ed Jovanovski, Pho
Projected Stats: 12 G, 37 A, +2, 76 PIM, 29 PP, 210 SOG

Jovo-cop had the kind of season that everyone has always believed him capable. With Jokinen in Phoenix things are looking up for the talented two way defender... but can he stay healthy two season in a row?

17. Brian Campbell, Chi
Projected Stats: 9 G, 49 A, +8, 22 PIM, 34 PP, 154 SOG

Campbell will eventually have a lot of competition for powerplay time on this young but talented team. It won't be coming this season though. Campbell's principle value lies in assists and powerplay points. He is underwhelming in every other category but is a solid choice as a second defenseman if you take care of PIM elsewhere.

18. Joe Corvo, Car
Projected Stats: 13 G, 36 A, +9, 38 PIM, 30 PP, 183 SOG

Really? Joe Corvo? Yes. Really. Pitkanen's arrival in Carolina casts a little doubt on Corvo's role but these stats don't: 21 points in 23 games in Carolina last season. Yea, he was that good a fit on this team. Take him here anticipating the stats above but hope for more.

19. Philippe Boucher, Dal
Projected Stats: 12 G, 30 A, +5, 96 PIM, 22 PP, 189 SOG

Boucher had been excellent since the lockout... before he missed half of last season to injury. If healthy he gets you a little bit of everything. He might go higher then this but he also could fly under the radar due to his low totals last season. One major concern. Even though he only played 38 games he still had a painfully low 3 points on the man advantage. Just... be aware.

20. Kimmo Timonen, Phi
Projected Stats: 10 G, 36 A, +2, 58 PIM, 31 PP, 144 SOG

Time for a couple of upside picks. Timonen had a "good" year but one that's not quite up to his usual standards. He will share the point with Coburn this year (who could have a GREAT year) but he is still a solid number 2 d-man. Philly is the team that made the Eastern Conference finals last year and not the one that struggled to make the playoffs.

21. Lubomir Visnovsky, Edm
Projected Stats: 12 G, 38 A, -8, 26 PIM, 31 PP, 145 SOG

The Breaking the Trap bounceback candidate of the year. Visnovsky had a bad year in LA. So did everyone else. Edmonton is a team poised for awesome-itude (TM BtT enterprises 2008) and the teaming of Souray and Visnovsky on the point is a big part of that. Again, the above is what I believe to Visnovsky's absolute floor. He's kind of useless outside of the offensive categories and I tend to like to get either shots or PIM out of my D-men but his potential for close to hit the high 50's or low 60's in points more than makes up for it.

Player Rankings: Tier 1 & 2 D-men

I said I was going to do it. D-men get very um... common after the top 20 or so. Most leagues are going to make you play 4-5 depending upon size so unfortunately you need to really mine this particular position for every last speck of worth.

There are a couple of solid strategies for dealing with d-men. One strategy is to focus all of your attention on the top guys. Draft defensemen early and often and then fill in your forward slots with talented lower tier forwards. At Center three isn't a WHOLE lot of difference between the 15-25 guys as compared to the 25-35 guys. So, you can afford to wait a while to draft you second center. Once you get past the top 20 or so right wings, as you saw, it gets scary. Left wings are a bit deeper though the difference between the top ten and the rest of the pack is striking. However, there will always be forwards out there... quality forwards.

Another strategy is to use them to roster plug, essentially draft high quality forwards throughout the draft and try to use the defenseman to fill in categories you aren't getting like +/- and PIM. This is an all right strategy but will almost guarantee that you will place low in powerplay points. There are only so many d-men that quarterback the powerplay and once they are gone they're gone. Rarely will a D-man take that role over mid-season unless there is a catastrophic injury or they come from out of nowhere.

You will generally not be able to to get a 60 point d-man off of waivers. There is usually one exception to this rule per year. Last year it was Mike Green. this year... I don't know... maybe Kris Russel in Columbus or Brian Lee in Ottawa.

Every D-man is going to get you somewhere between 4 and 18 goalies. That's nothing. The real differences come in powerplay points, +/-, PIM, and Shots on goal. Essentially the defense slot becomes where you differentiate yourself in the secondary categories, particularly in the new NHL. This is why the second strategy above is so tempting... however it comes with risks.

So what are you looking for in a good d-man? Your absolute best option is a defenseman on a good team that runs the powerplay and isn't afraid to mix it up a little. There aren't very many of these. The 9 listed below are the absolute best at what they do. The rest will follow as soon as a decision is made on Schneider's future.

Breaking the Trap Presents:

Top Defensemen (By Tier) for the 2008-2009 FHL Season

Tier 1 (should be drafted between the 2nd and 4th round in a 10 team league):

1. Dion Phaneuf, Cgy

Projected Stats: 18 G, 41 A, +15, 143 PIM, 35 PP, 258 SOG

The phrase "took the league by storm" hardly seems adequate to describe what Phaneuf has done in the last three years. He scores (20 goals in his rookie campaign!!), He hits (182 PIM last season!!!) he makes plays (33 powerplay points last season!!!!) and he does all this without being a defensive liability (+27 over his three year career!!!!!). He is the most versatile option at this position.

2. Nicklas Lidstrom, Det

Projected Stats: 14 G, 58 A, +40, 42 PIM, 33 PP, 183 SOG

Second by a nose hair, Lidstrom is the premier d-man in the NHL. Drafting him almost assures that you are competitive in assists, powerplay points and +/-. He isn't the physical presence of some of the other top defensemen in the league but he more then makes up for that with every other aspect of his game.

3. Chris Pronger, Ana

Projected Stats: 13 G, 38 A, +24, 116 PIM, 34 PP, 182 SOG

Think of him as Phaneuf lite at this stage of his career. The return of Niedermayer for a full season should help. Pronger is a mean bastard with a goal scorers touch. After Lidstrom and Phaneuf he is the best of the rest.

Tier 2 (should be drafted between the 4th and 7th round in a ten team league)

4. Sergei Gonchar, Pitt

Projected Stats: 12 G, 54 A, +9, 72 PIM, 41 PP, 185 SOG

He almost makes tier 1 but misses slightly because of my concerns about his plus/minus and his PIM which have been decreasing steadily over the past few season. Gonchar is the only one qualified to run the powerplay in Pittsburgh, particularly with Ryan Whitney being out until January (hence his exclusion from this list). Pittsburgh powerplay should be ... heh... pretty good too. That's what I'm hearing anyway.

5. Dan Boyle, SJ

Projected Stats: 17 G, 41 A, +11, 68 PIM, 36 PP, 192 SOG

The general of what should be another wildly successful powerplay this season, Boyle instantly improves San Jose offense. The Sharks, in turn, instantly improve Boyle's plus/minus. A top tier offensive defenseman with concerns just had his edges smoothed out. Enjoy him.

6. Brian Rafalski, Det

Projected Stats: 12 G, 43 A, +27, 36 PIM, 34 PP, 172 SOG

Think of Rafalski as Lidstrom lite. What I made that joke already? Ah well. He does everything except get you PIM but he does what he does very very well.

7. Zdeno Chara, Bos

Projected Stats: 13 G, 34 A, +9, 108 PIM, 24 PP, 202 SOG

Someone finally remembered that Chara has a CANNON of a shot and let him open up on the powerplay. Chara had off-season shoulder surgery and may miss a few games at the start of the season. That and the fact that he still plays for Boston are the only reason he isn't higher on this list.

8. Mike Green, Wash

Projected Stats: 19 G, 38 A, +7, 58 PIM, 26 PP, 233 SOG

I think the above represents the absolute floor for most of Green's stats this year (except for goals which might be a tad optimistic). Green scored most of his points at even strength last year which is nice for plus minus but not so nice for powerplay points. Lets see what this year brings before we go crazy.

9. Scott Niedermayer, Ana

Projected Stats: 14 G, 38 A, +8, 64 PIM, 35 PP, 165 SOG

Oh yea... that guy. Niedermayer took most of the season to decide whether he was going to honor his contract last year after fulfilling his life-long goal of winning a Stanley Cup with his brother. That indecision, and Teemu's, is what led Anaheim to the funky cap problems necessitating the waiving of Mathieu Schneider this year and Ilya Bryzgalov last year. Questions of heart aside Anaheim had the best record in the NHL after Niedermayer's return. Their D is rivaled only by Detroit's. There may be more grey in Scott's playoff beard then there used to be but he is still a top ten pick at D.

PLAYER RANKINGS: Top 35 Goaltenders

One more time for the newbies. Higher SV% is good, Lower GAA is good. You want save a higher percentage of shots and allow a lower percentage of goals. Ok with that out of the way...

So here's how I made this list. I took every goalie that I thought had a legitimate shot at playing thirty games or more this year without an injury to the presumptive starter. This came out to about 40 goalies of which I am going to give you the top 35, based upon a similar ranking system to the one I used with the forwards.

There are backups that COULD become fantasy relevant that are not on this list (Pavelec in Atlanta, Norrena and Mason in Columbus, etc) but I'm reserving them for a separate list. These are goalies who as things stand right now should see significant ice time.

Goalie is a deceptively shallow position that's the bad news. In a ten team league you have 20 starting goalies, and I think 17 is really my cutoff for using the phrase "very good" to describe any of them. You SHOULD have three goalies so that you can rotate. If you don't someone else will and they will dominate wins. Keep that in mind.

Goalie is, however, one position that you can dominate with good drafting. There are three, four in leagues that count shutouts, categories that two to three players will account for. You don't have to get everything from every goaltender. You can almost always make up wins, but GAA and SV% are much tougher to come by.

Breaking the Trap presents...

Top 35 FHL Goalies for 2008-2009 season

1. Martin Brodeur, NJ

Projected Stats: 43 W, 2.18 GAA, .920 SV%, 5 Shutouts

The class of the league. Marty's wins have always been solid, but in the years since the lockout and the break down of the Devil's defense his SV% has improved dramatically as he has faced a significantly stronger barrage of shots in the absence of any help behind his blue line. Draft him in the first round with one of the top 5 picks. He won't be there much longer then that.

2. J.S. Giguere, Ana

Projected Stats: 36 W, 2.14 GAA, .920 SV%, 5 Shutouts

The unfortunately nicknamed Giggy has been pretty consistently stellar for the last several years. He tends to have a bit of an injury bug but if he stays healthy he is every bit the elite option in net that Brodeur is. Seriously though... how do they give you the Conn Smythe when your team lost. How is that not Marty's trophy... its like the one major... (rants for several hours)

3. Roberto Luongo, Van

Projected Stats: 37 W, 2.32 GAA, .921 SV%, 4 Shutouts

At this stage of the game Luongo may actually have the best "skills" of any goalie in the league... he's just trapped on a team that is going to lose 1-0 a lot of nights this year.

4. Evgeni Nabakov, SJ

Projected Stats: 42 W, 2.21 GAA, .910 SV%, 6 Shutouts

Nabakov is either great or terrible.... in fact he usually has one great year and then one terrible year. Well, last year broke that trend. We were due for bad Nabakov and instead what we got was a Vezina finalist. His SV% will never be among the elite but he delivers in all the other categories.

5. Niklas Backstrom, Minn

Projected Stats: 32 W, 2.18 GAA, .921 SV%, 4 Shutouts

Backstrom has very quietly had two great years in Minnesota. His GAA went up last year but Minnesota again bolstered their defense in the offseason so I expect that to start making its way back down. If there was no Josh Harding in Minnesota I think a case could be made to take Backstrom even higher. If you do take Backstrom I recommend handcuffing him with Josh Harding later in the draft, as you'll see.

6. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR

Projected Stats: 37 W, 2.24 GAA, .916 SV%, 7 Shutouts

Did you know Hank had 10 shutouts last year? That's crazy right? The defense got better in the offseason with the addition of Redden and good two way forwards. Consistency gets Hank the nod here. You know what you're going to get from him.

7. Chris Osgood, Det

Projected Stats: 32 W, 2.14 GAA, .913 SV%, 4 Shutouts

Ozzie shined last year, forcing the retirement of the Dominator and leading Detroit to the Cup. I think a very good case could have been made for Osgood for Conn Smythe but maybe I'm just underestimating how good that D is. Just because he's an injury risk you should handcuff Osgood with Conklin a little later on. Detroit's goaltending isn't a bad place to be though.

8. Pascal Leclaire, Clb

Projected Stats: 26 W, 2.20 GAA, .918 SV%, 6 Shutouts

Last year was not a fluke. Leclaire is really that good. Unfortunately the team itself isn't yet and their division is getting increasingly tough. If you take Leclaire, which you should, you will pretty much doom yourself to rolling with three starters or two starters and two good backups, but its worth it for the stats he will bring you. I've got you covered though.

9. Marty Turco, Dal

Projected Stats: 38 W, 2.25 GAA, .912 SV%, 4 Shutouts

Turco has no one pushing him this year. That could be for the best as he has generally excelled when he isn't fighting for his job and that will guarantee more wins for you. This is a very good Dallas team.

10. Ilya Bryzgalov, Pho

Projected Stats: 33 W, 2.39 GAA, .917 SV%, 5 Shutouts

Breezy single-handedly (glovedly? blockeredly?) lifted Phoenix up by their skate laces with his arrival last season. I see no reason that his excellence shouldn't continue on this improved Phoenix team. I'm a little concerned at the loss of Ballard on defense but Breezy's stats are SO much better then any goalie has played for Phoenix for the last few years that I'm inclined to believe that thats mostly his own doing.

11. Mikka Kipprusoff, Cgy

Projected Stats: 40 W, 2.42 GAA, .915 SV%, 5 Shutouts

Kipper was abysmal last season. Whether he's been overworked or the holes in his game have just started to come to light he has been steadily declining for the last several years. I don't believe it will continue. He isn't, at the moment, a top ten option but he's a really really good second goalie because he has world's of upside.

12. Marc Andre Fleury, Pitt

Projected Stats: 36 W, 2.45 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 Shutouts

I unapologetically do not believe in MAF. He has yet to impress me in the regular season. I have seen him steal maybe two games but I've also seen him, by himself, lose about 10. I'm also of the opinion that this team lost a lot in the offseason. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he steps up and becomes an elite option, but I'll wait until he does to put him in the top ten.

13. Cristobal Huet, Chi

Projected Stats: 28 W 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, 4 Shutouts

I want to put him higher, because I believe that he is a starter and not a member of a platoon. However, all of the rhetoric coming out of the windy city... well I guess not all of it but all of the hockey related rhetoric... suggests otherwise. I expect that Khabibulin will be moved at some point this year, but until he is Huet will be at least splitting some time with the Bulin Sieve.

14. Martin Biron, Phi

Projected Stats: 34 W, 2.42 GAA, .916 SV%, 5 Shutouts

Biron won the job in the playoffs last year. Anyone who thinks otherwise didn't watch the first two rounds. Philly is only going to get better as their young talent (spread across three lines) gets more experience.

15. Carey Price, Mon

Projected Stats: 33 W, 2.52 GAA, .915 SV%, 3 Shutouts

Ok so he got thrown into the spotlight last year with mixed results. Its not that I don't like Price, I do. I had him on my team last year too. I just don't like his situation, and his GAA. The Huet trade doesn't indicate as much confidence as the media is speculating. Montreal found itself with three goalies so they traded the one they couldn't see themselves being able to sign in the offseason. That still leaves you with two goalies. Halak has played very well when called upon. Expect a tandem for at least one more year (Montreal signed Halak to a three year deal in the offseason) unless Price really establishes himself early.

16. Tomas Vokoun, Fla

Projected Stats: 31 W, 2.62 GAA, .919 SV%, 3 Shutouts

A good goalie with a great defense in front of him. Vokoun isn't going to win you many games, because the offense is somewhat less impressive in the sunshine state, but he is still a solid option.

17. Dan Ellis, Nash

Projected Stats: 31 W, 2.38 GAA, .916 SV%, 5 Shutouts

I'm fairly convinced that Ellis is going to have a very good year as Nashville's starter. Unless he stumbles he shouldn't face too much competition from Pekka Rinne, and he was pretty incredible last year (6 shutouts in only 37 starts!). Why so low then? Can you guys say Chris Mason? Mason had a great season backing up Vokoun and then was ABYSMAL last year which is the reason we're even talking about Ellis. If you draft him do your homework and check those Nashville box scores nightly. He could be a steal or he could be an absolutely "Batman & Robin" level disaster.

18. Jose Theodore, Wash

Projected Stats: 32 W, 2.40 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 Shutouts

Did someone say disaster? No discussion of disasters would be complete without Jose Theodore. Theodore is the obvious starter in Washington. He has that going for him. He's also playing in a much weaker division then the one he had his re-birth in last season. Thats another plus. Here are the negatives. Before last season the last time he had a sub-3.00 GAA was 2003-2004. Ditto for an over 9.00 SV%. He was stunning at times last season... unfortunately those times did not include the second round match up with Detroit. Be careful with Theodore... draft casual if you will.

19. Ryan Miller, Buff

Projected Stats: 34 W, 2.58 GAA, .909 SV%, 3 Shutouts

I spoke to soon, we're not done with disasters. I think Miller is very good if a little absent-minded. I don't think we've seen the best he has to offer yet, unfortunately I don't think we will for some time if this Buffalo team keeps up its seemingly all encompassing goal of attaining basement dweller status. Not satisfied with last seasons mediocrity they traded Brian Campbell and sought no legitimate replacement for him on the blue line. Miller will be OK, but not much beyond that.

20. Mathieu Garon, Edm

Projected Stats: 30 W, 2.56 GAA, .914 SV%, 4 Shutouts

The GAA is troubling but the rest of his stats are good. I have trouble saying this but I have a feeling Edmonton is going to be very good this year. Garon had a good season last year and should continue that in his first year as Edmonton's full time starter.

21. Ty Conklin, Det

Projected Stats: 15 W, 2.35 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 Shutouts

He's going to start at least 30 games this year you figure, with Ozzie's history, and he put in a sterling performance in a similar role in Pittsburgh last year. Now he has the league's best Defense in front of him. Don't be the guy that drafts Osgood and doesn't get himself Osgood insurance as well.

22. Manny Legace, St. Lou.

Projected Stats: 26 W, 2.50 GAA, .910 SV%, 4 Shutouts

Manny is going to get hurt. Manny is now backed by Chris Mason. Manny will see less ice time but still put up very good numbers in the other categories. Draft the much-maligned Manny as a solid third goalie, he won't let you down.

23. Cam Ward, Car

Projected Stats: 35 W, 2.72, GAA, .906 SV%, 4 Shutouts

Ward will give you the most wins that you can possibly get this late in the draft, but they come at a price. Cam has never impressed in the regular season, but everyone remembers that one playoff run. He's only 24, so there is plenty of time for him to improve and maybe this is the year, but keep this troubling stat in mind... those projected numbers, with the exception of wins, would all represent career highs.

24. Tim Thomas, Bos

Projected Stats: 22 W, 2.46 GAA, .913 SV%, 2 Shutouts

Yea Thomas had an, at times, great year but this year he will ACTUALLY split time with someone, either Tuuka Rask (painfully, hysterically close to Took a Risk) or Manny Fernandez so his numbers should decline some. I don't want to talk about any of that right now. I want to tell you about the time Tim Thomas ruined my life. I was vacationing in Vegas with my brothers and father 2 years ago for March Madness. I don't know a damn thing about basketball and so I was trying to make up some of my mornings losses by betting hockey. Ottawa was playing Boston and I believe Ottawa was in the middle of a massive winning streak. So I bet a massive parlay bet... three in fact... and Ottawa over Boston is my lock on all three bets with a lot of less sure things mixed in.

I would have won two of three cards (for about a 900 dollar return on 30 dollars worth of betting) if Tim Thomas hadn't shut out the Sens. When he won he celebrated like it was the freaking Stanley Cup Finals and he had shut them out in Game 7. He punched the sky with his stick and it felt like he was the weird shaman guy in Temple of Doom punching my heart. For some odd reason, even though this was a totally meaningless game in the middle of March Madness, this highlight was playing on ESPN wherever we went for the rest of the weekend. I can still see it without even closing my eyes. I hate you Tim Thomas.

25. Kari Lehtonen, Atl

Projected Stats: 23 W, 2.76 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 Shutouts

Upside puts Lehtonen above our next ranked player. Atlanta is a terrible team. Lehtonen is a good goalie with a wonky groin. If he stays healthy he'll win some games by himself and give you a solid save percentage. If he doesn't... well you wasted a late round pick on a third goalie that you can replace on waivers. Shoot me.

26. Mike Smith, TB

Projected Stats: 20 W, 2.42 GAA, .905 SV%, 3 Shutouts

Smith will at least START the season as Tampa's starter but like so many of their other positions this one is murky and crowded. He gets the nod here because I believe he is, at this point, the best option and the most likely to see a significant level of starts but Olaf Kolzig and Karri Rammo should be kept an eye on as I believe anyone who distinguishes themself will get a shot on this team this year. There's too much money riding on it not too.

27. Rick Dipietro, NYI

Projected Stats: 28 W, 2.76 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 Shutouts

I've seen some bad teams in my day, but not too many worse then this Islander team. Remember Rick had his hip and knee operated on in the offseason... important parts for a goalie. Don't fret Islander fans. Its not like he has 13 years left on his contract or anything.

28. Nikolai Khabibulin, Chi

Projected Stats: 13 W, 2.53 GAA, .908 SV%, 2 Shutouts

Those are Khabibulin's stats if he stays on Chicago. Khabi is going to start the season as the most expensive backup in history. A trade can't be far off, to Ottawa perhaps?

29. Martin Gerber, Ott

Projected Stats: 19 W, 2.74 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 Shutouts

If you draft Gerber you have to draft Auld. I wouldn't recommend drafting either as neither has ever really impressed and this team, outside of its first line, kind of imploded in the offseason. Look for Ottawa to remedy their goaltending problem pretty quickly or for heads to roll in the front office.

30. Jaroslav Halak, Mon

Projected Stats, 10 W, 2.43 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 Shutout

Price's handcuff. Halak could end up playing a significant amount this season, or he could play about 15 games. That uncertainty is the only thing putting him this low on the list. A solid stat boosting option.

31. Josh Harding, Minn

Projected Stats: 11 W, 2.62 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 Shutout

Backstrom's handcuff. Harding is a good goalie in his own right, and I would expect Minnesota to trade one of Harding or Backstrom, if they find themselves in contention, for some scoring help later on in the season.

32. Vesa Toskala, Tor

Projected Stats: 28 W, 2.75 GAA, .902 SV%, 2 Shutouts

Do you get the feeling that Joseph took the job as the backup in Toronto just to watch someone else go through the media scrutiny he did? What other reason could he have for returning to the site of his completely unwarranted villification? Toskala, like most of Toronto, is in for a rough year. CuJo's in for some good laughs.

33. Peter Budaj, Col

Projected Stats: 19 W, 2.68 GAA, .904 SV%, 1 Shutout

How bad is Budaj? There is actually a question about whether he or Raycroft will start. I rest my case. See all of those other options above you? Pick 3 of them and let this be someone else's mistake.

34. Jason LaBarbera, LA

Projected Stats: 17 W, 2.90 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 Shutout

One of these years the Kings are going to be good. All of their young talent will emerge, their defense will for once not be a series of personalities and will actually play like the collection of high draft picks that it always is and either LaBarbera or Bernier will have an amazing season. And then Hannibal from the A-Team will step out onto the ice as the Kings raise the Stanley Cup and say "I love it when a plan comes together" and Mr. T will throw the Stanley Cup into next year...yea... one of these years.

35. Alex Auld, Ott

Projected Stats: 12 W, 2.71 GAA, .907 SV%, 2 Shutout

I could have picked a lot of goalies for Mr. Insignificant: Chris Mason in St. Louis (who I like to be all right btw), Jonathan Bernier in LA (who is at least another year off from being significant enough to be this insignificant), Manny Fernandez in Boston (who you should remember was traded from Minnesota even though his coach was his father in law) or your Mom (who is shockingly a better option in net then Andrew Raycroft) but instead I chose Alex. I feel like he has the best combination of talent and situation. You can win the starters job away from Gerber as long as you have a pair of pads and a pulse (so tell your Mom to go buy some pads!). Ottawa is going to be a battleground in net this year. Keep your eye on it and don't be surprised if the starter at the end of the year isn't anyone currently on the team.