Some quick injury news and notes...
Marc Andre Fleury is day to day with a lower body injury. Its difficult to know what this is going to mean for Pittsburgh beyond the short term without knowing the severity, location, etc of the injury but for now Dany Sabourin will get the start in net. The Pens are not a spectacular defensive team, even with the addition of Philippe Boucher, and Sabourin is not a shutdown netminder. If Flery is out for any stretch of time don't expect Sabourin to be a Conklin.
Andy McDonald, one the real feel-good comeback players of the year is going to miss the next 8 weeks or so with a broken leg suffered in St. Louis' shootout loss to Montreal on Sunday. McDonald slid feet first into the boards in the first period and fractured his left leg. St. Louis is looking less and less like a playoff contender this year so expect the team to show extreme patience with McDonald's injury. He, and the also injured Paul Kariya, will not be rushed back. Look to Lee Stempniak, Patirk Berglund and Davod Perron to step it up in their abscence.
Joe Sakic is skating again with the Avalanche but will reportedly sit tonight against Calgary. It does look like Sakic is close though, so take heart Burnaby Joe owners.
An undisclosed upper body injury sidelined the league's second leading scorer Alexander Semin in Saturday night's game against the Devils. We'll keep our eye on this for you.
Kevin Bieska, who has been spectacular for Vancouver when healthy, will miss another two weeks with a broken foot. Mattias Ohlund and Sami Salo should step up to fill the offensive voide in Bieska's abscence and might be a good short term add.
Showing posts with label Washington Capitals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington Capitals. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Monday, October 27, 2008
Oh God... I cursed Philly
Danny Briere to miss 3-4 weeks with 2 abdominal tears which required surgery. OUCH. Thats a tough one for the Flyers to swallow I would imagine. They are deep at center but Briere has been a key piece of their rebuilding.
More on this tomorrow in the BTT injury update but some other news and notes of interest:
- Alexander Ovechkin has returned to Russia to be with his ailing grandfather. He will miss at least one game.
- As mentioned earlier Joni Pitkanen will miss 3-4 weeks with a knee injury. Hurricanes players are dropping like... well Hurricanes players.
- The New Jersey Devils continue to be without Brian Rolston, Jamie Langenbrunner and Bobby Holik. Of the three, Langenbrunner is the only one who could be ready for the Devils next game.
More on this tomorrow in the BTT injury update but some other news and notes of interest:
- Alexander Ovechkin has returned to Russia to be with his ailing grandfather. He will miss at least one game.
- As mentioned earlier Joni Pitkanen will miss 3-4 weeks with a knee injury. Hurricanes players are dropping like... well Hurricanes players.
- The New Jersey Devils continue to be without Brian Rolston, Jamie Langenbrunner and Bobby Holik. Of the three, Langenbrunner is the only one who could be ready for the Devils next game.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Breaking the Slump: Front and Centers
There are few positions in the game of hockey which require more skill then that of the number one center. The center is expected to, despite being double teamed by the other team's best defenders, carry the puck into the zone, set up the play and then either put one of his linemates in position to score a goal or do so himself.
In fantasy number one centers are even more of a focal point. Center is a notoriously deep position and if your top center isn't scoring 80 points then he better be getting 100 PIM and be a + 20. While you might generally give your wings some slack to find their footing centers are expected to produce right of the gate particularly when in a typical league there are always "good" to "decent" centers on waivers.
So when your high draft pick can't miss center is underperforming, even this early in the season, it is a strong temptation to say "F*** 'em" and pick up this weeks Mikko Koivu or Patrice Bergeron.
I sympathize... I mean in general. I'm not really in the same spot as you, I've got Malkin, Jokinen and Gomez thank you very much, but I get it. So, like the good blogger I am I'm going to address three centers who are performing below expectations and give you my opinion on what to do with them. I'm a saint.
Mike Ribiero
Mikey liked his 83 point season last year. Despite his horrendously low shot total and lack of any history indicating that that number was achievable. We gave Ribiero fairly ambitious point totals in our player rankings but still ranked him as 25th among centers... meaning that unless you are in a 15 team league or somesuch you shouldn't have him as anything higher then your third center. Point totals are a funny thing though, people tend to be blinded by them and not look at anything else.
So for those of you that also liked Mikey's 83 point season here are something things that Mikey, and by extension you, doesn't like:
-being defended like the number one center
-not playing with Brendan Morrow
-playing in front of a defense that hasn't adapted to Zubov's abscence.
Ribiero now has 4 assists through 7 games. That's not terrible... in fact it puts him on pace to finish with about the same number of assists he had last year. The -7 is ugly and so is the lack of powerplay points. If those are your problems then here's the good news. Those will take care of themselves if and when Dallas rights the ship. I'm not saying that's going to happen anytime soon, or even at all, but they aren't specifically Ribiero's fault and they could end up going away.
If, however, you were somehow expecting shot or goal totals worthy or a number 1 or 2 d-man then... well... I think you're out of luck. This is about what Ribiero does. He scored goals in bunches last year ... until he signed a new contract. The assists kept coming but the goals disappeared.
There are better options on waivers in most leagues, and by better options I mean options that will produce at a number 2 center/flex forward level.
My recommendation: DROP HIM
Nicklas Backstrom
This one is tricky. The good news is that Washington is scoring goals and winning games despite poor tending from Theodore. The bad news, Backstrom has had nothing to do with it. Through 6 games he has a grand total of 1 assist. OUCH. Furthermore Ovechkin is slumping, for him, as well and so Ovie has been taken off of Backstrom's wing in an attempt to coax some goals out of the Big Russian. Double Ouch.
That said I'm fairly optimistic. Backstrom was very streaky through his first 12 games last year, notching only 5 assists in that stretch, but still managed to finish the season with 69 points. Backstrom is very talented, and Ovechkin is NOT going to spend the entire season playing with Sergei Federov. This will pass
On the plus side he IS shooting more. I would go get one of the streaking players off of waivers and play him while letting Backstrom ride the pine. He's going to figure this out, he just needs some time.
My recommendation: BENCH HIM
Jonathan Toews
No Western Conference team has received more attention from BTT then the Chicago Blackhawks. Never in any of that coverage did we expect that Toews or Kane would be anything less then spectacular this season. Kane has lived up to that billing so far this season posting 8 points in 7 games. Toews however has been underwhelming, putting up only 4 assists over the same span.
Unlike Backstrom and Ribiero, who should have been drafted as nothing more then a third center/bench player, you probably used a fairly high draft pick to get Toews, reaching pretty significantly in some cases. I've been all over Toews since last year's preseason but in my league he went too high for even me to think about drafting.
Before we go any further I think it might be educational to check out an excellent article posted on this very site back in July comparing Toews and Kane to another dynamic duo, Kovalchuk and Heatley. That article can be found here, http://breakingthetrap.blogspot.com/2008/07/dont-toews-me-bro.html
Heatley, like Kane, was more of an assist guy in his first year before things even out in his second season and he became the 50/50 threat that he is now. Early returns say we are looking at the possibility of a 40/40 season from Kane. Toews, as stated above, has been less exciting in his sophomore season and is looking at a possibly bump in the road. While Kovalchuk's sophomore 67 was hardly a slump, it was certainly under what many expected, and have come to expect, of the talented winger. Toews looks to be following a similar path.
While 70+ points are starting to look a little out of reach for Toews I still believe that he will have an adequate fantasy season for a second or third center. He is having some issues with his new linemates, as he is spending less time with Kane these days, and the coaching turmoil can't be helping anyone (except for Patrick Sharp apparently).
He is going to break out eventually, and you don't want to miss that. I say leave him in. Maybe see if there's someone that can get you number 2 center numbers out on waivers and move him to your flex forward position.
My recommendation: PLAY HIM
BREAKING THE SLUMP BONUS CONTENT
Sometimes you feel very strongly about something. Sometimes its a person and you form an eternal connection with or an everlasting hatred of them. Sometimes its a meal and you seek it out whenever you can. Sometimes its a book. But sometimes... sometimes its a hockey team.
I believe strongly that the Anaheim Ducks are a playoff team. I believe that they have the talent and the personnel to defeat any team in the Western Conference on any given night and while Detroit and San Jose are probably all around better they are definitely one of the top 4 or 5 teams in the league.
So it with that in mind and with a heavy heart that I offer up this very special message from Breaking the Trap to the Not So Mighty Ducks.
WTF ANAHEIM?
Seriously. If you drafted any Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Chris Kunitz, Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger or J.S. Giguere this has to be the number one question on your mind.
FACT: George Parros has more goals then all of the people listed above combined.
FACT: OK, I lied. He's tied with "The Combined Might of the Ducks" as they both have 2 goals.
I am confident that this will pass. It has to. None of those players are one year wonders. If I'm a Selanne owner, and I am, I'm concerned because he may legitimately be over the hill but the rest of them are players in their primes. There is no excuse for this.
Ultimately that's why I believe this will pass. The Ducks are too good to NOT turn this around and stated putting biscuits in baskets. Until then though:
My recommendation: BENCH THEM ALL
That's all for this edition of Breaking the Slump. I might be back later with some random thoughts and rumours... but if not I'll see you all back here tomorrow with the very first "BTT TEAM RANKINGS" of the season.
In fantasy number one centers are even more of a focal point. Center is a notoriously deep position and if your top center isn't scoring 80 points then he better be getting 100 PIM and be a + 20. While you might generally give your wings some slack to find their footing centers are expected to produce right of the gate particularly when in a typical league there are always "good" to "decent" centers on waivers.
So when your high draft pick can't miss center is underperforming, even this early in the season, it is a strong temptation to say "F*** 'em" and pick up this weeks Mikko Koivu or Patrice Bergeron.
I sympathize... I mean in general. I'm not really in the same spot as you, I've got Malkin, Jokinen and Gomez thank you very much, but I get it. So, like the good blogger I am I'm going to address three centers who are performing below expectations and give you my opinion on what to do with them. I'm a saint.
Mike Ribiero
Mikey liked his 83 point season last year. Despite his horrendously low shot total and lack of any history indicating that that number was achievable. We gave Ribiero fairly ambitious point totals in our player rankings but still ranked him as 25th among centers... meaning that unless you are in a 15 team league or somesuch you shouldn't have him as anything higher then your third center. Point totals are a funny thing though, people tend to be blinded by them and not look at anything else.
So for those of you that also liked Mikey's 83 point season here are something things that Mikey, and by extension you, doesn't like:
-being defended like the number one center
-not playing with Brendan Morrow
-playing in front of a defense that hasn't adapted to Zubov's abscence.
Ribiero now has 4 assists through 7 games. That's not terrible... in fact it puts him on pace to finish with about the same number of assists he had last year. The -7 is ugly and so is the lack of powerplay points. If those are your problems then here's the good news. Those will take care of themselves if and when Dallas rights the ship. I'm not saying that's going to happen anytime soon, or even at all, but they aren't specifically Ribiero's fault and they could end up going away.
If, however, you were somehow expecting shot or goal totals worthy or a number 1 or 2 d-man then... well... I think you're out of luck. This is about what Ribiero does. He scored goals in bunches last year ... until he signed a new contract. The assists kept coming but the goals disappeared.
There are better options on waivers in most leagues, and by better options I mean options that will produce at a number 2 center/flex forward level.
My recommendation: DROP HIM
Nicklas Backstrom
This one is tricky. The good news is that Washington is scoring goals and winning games despite poor tending from Theodore. The bad news, Backstrom has had nothing to do with it. Through 6 games he has a grand total of 1 assist. OUCH. Furthermore Ovechkin is slumping, for him, as well and so Ovie has been taken off of Backstrom's wing in an attempt to coax some goals out of the Big Russian. Double Ouch.
That said I'm fairly optimistic. Backstrom was very streaky through his first 12 games last year, notching only 5 assists in that stretch, but still managed to finish the season with 69 points. Backstrom is very talented, and Ovechkin is NOT going to spend the entire season playing with Sergei Federov. This will pass
On the plus side he IS shooting more. I would go get one of the streaking players off of waivers and play him while letting Backstrom ride the pine. He's going to figure this out, he just needs some time.
My recommendation: BENCH HIM
Jonathan Toews
No Western Conference team has received more attention from BTT then the Chicago Blackhawks. Never in any of that coverage did we expect that Toews or Kane would be anything less then spectacular this season. Kane has lived up to that billing so far this season posting 8 points in 7 games. Toews however has been underwhelming, putting up only 4 assists over the same span.
Unlike Backstrom and Ribiero, who should have been drafted as nothing more then a third center/bench player, you probably used a fairly high draft pick to get Toews, reaching pretty significantly in some cases. I've been all over Toews since last year's preseason but in my league he went too high for even me to think about drafting.
Before we go any further I think it might be educational to check out an excellent article posted on this very site back in July comparing Toews and Kane to another dynamic duo, Kovalchuk and Heatley. That article can be found here, http://breakingthetrap.blogspot.com/2008/07/dont-toews-me-bro.html
Heatley, like Kane, was more of an assist guy in his first year before things even out in his second season and he became the 50/50 threat that he is now. Early returns say we are looking at the possibility of a 40/40 season from Kane. Toews, as stated above, has been less exciting in his sophomore season and is looking at a possibly bump in the road. While Kovalchuk's sophomore 67 was hardly a slump, it was certainly under what many expected, and have come to expect, of the talented winger. Toews looks to be following a similar path.
While 70+ points are starting to look a little out of reach for Toews I still believe that he will have an adequate fantasy season for a second or third center. He is having some issues with his new linemates, as he is spending less time with Kane these days, and the coaching turmoil can't be helping anyone (except for Patrick Sharp apparently).
He is going to break out eventually, and you don't want to miss that. I say leave him in. Maybe see if there's someone that can get you number 2 center numbers out on waivers and move him to your flex forward position.
My recommendation: PLAY HIM
BREAKING THE SLUMP BONUS CONTENT
Sometimes you feel very strongly about something. Sometimes its a person and you form an eternal connection with or an everlasting hatred of them. Sometimes its a meal and you seek it out whenever you can. Sometimes its a book. But sometimes... sometimes its a hockey team.
I believe strongly that the Anaheim Ducks are a playoff team. I believe that they have the talent and the personnel to defeat any team in the Western Conference on any given night and while Detroit and San Jose are probably all around better they are definitely one of the top 4 or 5 teams in the league.
So it with that in mind and with a heavy heart that I offer up this very special message from Breaking the Trap to the Not So Mighty Ducks.
WTF ANAHEIM?
Seriously. If you drafted any Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Chris Kunitz, Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger or J.S. Giguere this has to be the number one question on your mind.
FACT: George Parros has more goals then all of the people listed above combined.
FACT: OK, I lied. He's tied with "The Combined Might of the Ducks" as they both have 2 goals.
I am confident that this will pass. It has to. None of those players are one year wonders. If I'm a Selanne owner, and I am, I'm concerned because he may legitimately be over the hill but the rest of them are players in their primes. There is no excuse for this.
Ultimately that's why I believe this will pass. The Ducks are too good to NOT turn this around and stated putting biscuits in baskets. Until then though:
My recommendation: BENCH THEM ALL
That's all for this edition of Breaking the Slump. I might be back later with some random thoughts and rumours... but if not I'll see you all back here tomorrow with the very first "BTT TEAM RANKINGS" of the season.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
TEAM PREVIEWS: THE WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Introduction:
These are more than just the Washington Ovechkins. Somewhere in the middle of last season a combination of Washington's young talent, veteran moves, and the inspired coaching of Bruce Boudreau came together to give Alexander the Great his first trip to the postseason.
The composition of this team is mostly the same, with one very large change. Gone is Cristobal Huet and in his place is Jose "The Streaky" Theodore. Nevertheless I like this team's chances. Theodore is certainly still more competent then Kolzig and the young guns really came into their own last year. Lets see what we've got.
Key Departures:
Cristobal Huet
Huet was fantastic in his brief stint with the Capitals last season, posting 11 wins in 13 starts and a 1.63 GAA. This is certainly a big loss, but the Caps were fighting for the posteseason prior to his acquisition.
New Faces:
Jose Theodore
Theodore is a capable replacement for Huet. He will certainly perform better then Kolzig over the course of the regular season. Will that be enough though?
The Offense:
Yes, its tough to beat the Penguins 1, 2, 3 punch of Crosby, Malkin and Staal but the Capitals come close with a talented bunch of young stars and up and comers in Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin. They also have some veteran grit in Nylander, Kozlov and Federov. If this isn't a team of right now its a team of very soon.
You Want to Draft:
Alexander Ovechkin
Nicklas Backstrom
Alexander Semin
What hasn't been written about this guy? Ovechking, Alexander the Great, Oven-Chicken, Александр Михайлович Овечкин... whatever you call him Ovechkin is a serious consideration as your number one overall pick. 65 goals, 47 assists, +28, 446 SOG, 37 Powerplay points, and 11 GWG (if you use that stat). The only thing he doesn't do is spend time in the box. Ovechkin's position as a left wing and his absolute domination of two categories, goals and shots on goal, make him incredibly attractive as first overall. Plus he can do stuff like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzbmI6-YSnQ. He's been playing for three years and he already has a play that's referred to simply as "The Goal." What more do you need to know?
FACT: Ovechkin is only the 19th player in NHL history to reach the 60 goal plateau. The others: Phil Esposito, Reggie Leach, Steve Shutt, Guy Lafleur, Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky, Dennis Maruk, Lanny MacDonald, Jari Kurry, Mario Lemieux, Bernie Nichols, Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull, Alexander Mogilny, Teemu Selanne, Pavel Bure, Luc Robitalle and Jaromir Jagr.
Backstrom had a heck of a rookie season, scoring 69 points and playing a full year. If not for the double threat of Toews and Kane out in Chicago he certainly would have won the Calder. Furthermore, he added 6 points (4 goals and 2 assists) in the Capitals 7 game foray into the playoffs last season. I would expect a modest increase from Backstrom this year and would draft him as a competent second or excellent third center with a focus on him as an assist and powerplay specialist.
FACT: Backstrom really turned it on once he was placed on a line Ovechkin. Expect him to start as the number 1 center this year.
Semin had an off year. He missed 19 games to injury and only scored 42 points, falling way off pace of the 73 points he put up the year before. Despite these setbacks, Semin was still on pace to score over 30 goals. Semin takes a ton of shots and receives significant powerplay time. As he is a left wing capable of scoring over 35 goals, gettting 30 Powerplay Points and taking over 240 shots I'll give him a pretty strong recommendation here.
FACT: Semin also gets you PIM (90 in 06-07, 54 in 63 games in 07-08).
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Michael Nylander
Chris Clark
Eric Fehr
Nylander continued his career resurgence, started in New York by Jaromir Jagr, by scoring 37 points in 40 games last season before tearing his rotator cuff (an injury that ultimately required season ending surgery). In his abscence Nylander would appear to have lost his position centering Alexander Ovechkin to Nicklas Backstrom. It remains to be seen how that will affect Michael. Loss of first line time aside, Nylander will likely still see significant powerplay time, where he had 18 points in only 40 games, and will still be centering the OTHER Alexander on the team, giving the team two solid and balanced scoring lines. If Nylander isn't a point a game and/or receiving significant powerplay time his SOG will kill you, particularly for a center. So I would take your time on Mr. Nylander and see what develops.
FACT: Nylander has played for 7 different teams, one of them (the Capitals) twice.
Clark missed all but 18 games with a wonky groin. Yes wonky is a technical term. The season before Clark scored 30 goals, playing largely on Oveckin's Right Wing. If Clark wins that job again he could very well have a similar year (30 goals, 54 points). Its worth keeping an eye on.
FACT: Before Ovechkin's arrival in Washinton the 32 year old Clark had never scored more then 10 goals.
Fehr is Washington's other high first round offensive pick. Fehr was drafted 18th overall in 2003. He hasn't done much in the NHL but scored 41 points in 40 games in the AHL in 06-07. Last season Fehr suffered a herniated disc and missed much of the year, but was resigned to a one year deal by the Capitals in the off-season. This could very well be his last chance to flash his offensive chops for the Caps. The Caps are relatively light at Right Wing so if he makes the big club Fehr should have every chance. His pedigree is good enough that if he finds his way onto one of the top two lines he could really make some noise.
FACT: Though he hasn't shown it yet in the NHL, Fehr is something of a power forward. At 6'4" Fehr is the owner of an 84 point 129 PIM season and an 111 point, 91 PIM season in the WHL (junior hockey). I'm just saying... kid is a fantasy god in the waiting if he can make the transition.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Mike Green
Fast... heavy shot from the point... plays on the powerplay with Ovechkin... Poti is his only serious competition for that slot... what's not to like? And there is room for improvement! Green scored only 4 goals after the all star break last year, likely because the grind of his first full season had begun to wear him down. Still... Green led all defenseman in goals last season.
FACT: Holy crap where to start! OK... two facts for Green, I'll give him Poti's fact. One his nickname is "Game Over" for his clutch and overtime goals. Hell of name to give to a 22 year old. Ok...
FACT 2: Green's shot is so hard that when Patrick Thoresen laid down to block it in the first round of the playoffs, the puck actually broke his protective cup and nearly ruptured his testicle! Think about that the next time you go down to block a shot.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Tom Poti
Karl Alzner
Poti has consistently disappointed me. I put him here only because if Green goes down he's worth giving a look, and could very well have enough points to justify a low pick in deep leagues. He's only one season removed from a 44 point year with the Islanders. At 31 he's still a few years from being washed up, so he's worth at least a look.
Karl Alzner. Who? Karl Alzner? Alzner was drafted 5th overall in 2007. He may not even get a spot on the team this year, he's only 19, but he has been very very good in junior's (playing for Bret Hart's Team, The Calgary Hitmen). At 19 he is already the owner of a 47 and 36 point season (playing 63 and 60 games respectively). He's worth keeping an eye on, even if he doesn't make it to the big team at the start of the year.
FACT: Last season Alzner was named the WHL defenceman of the year AND the WHL player of the year.
The Powerplay:
Alexander Ovechkin
Alexander Semin
Nicklas Backstrom
Michael Nylander
Mike Green
Deadly efficient. Just the right number of shooters and passers. They are going to have to win a lot of games 4-3 and this powerplay is the key to that strategy.
The Goalie(s):
Theodore had... well he had a good year with the Avalanche. I can't believe I'm saying that. He split time with Budaj and put up respectable numbers in all three categories (28 wins in only 52 starts with a 2.44 GAA and .910 SV%). Theodore steps into a similar situation to the one he had in Colorado, minus the competition. He'll be playing behind a young, but improving, D and an offense that is steadily maturing but loaded with talent. Similar numbers (except for wins which should see a modest improvement to about 34) should be expected.
FACT: There is reason to worry. Last season was the first season since 03-04 where Theodore's GAA was below 3.00. I'm optimistic though.
Should Theodore need some spelling, Brent Johnson is a capable backup. I think we're still a few years off from the emergence of Varlamov, Washington's highly touted goalie prospect, but crazier things have happened.
The Verdict:
The Capitals are the gem in the rising Southeast Division. The Caps' young guns and veterans should keep them in the playoff race from wire to wire. Draft Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin and Green with confidence. Theodore is worth the risk and consideration should be given to Nylander and Poti for their significant upside.
These are more than just the Washington Ovechkins. Somewhere in the middle of last season a combination of Washington's young talent, veteran moves, and the inspired coaching of Bruce Boudreau came together to give Alexander the Great his first trip to the postseason.
The composition of this team is mostly the same, with one very large change. Gone is Cristobal Huet and in his place is Jose "The Streaky" Theodore. Nevertheless I like this team's chances. Theodore is certainly still more competent then Kolzig and the young guns really came into their own last year. Lets see what we've got.
Key Departures:
Cristobal Huet
Huet was fantastic in his brief stint with the Capitals last season, posting 11 wins in 13 starts and a 1.63 GAA. This is certainly a big loss, but the Caps were fighting for the posteseason prior to his acquisition.
New Faces:
Jose Theodore
Theodore is a capable replacement for Huet. He will certainly perform better then Kolzig over the course of the regular season. Will that be enough though?
The Offense:
Yes, its tough to beat the Penguins 1, 2, 3 punch of Crosby, Malkin and Staal but the Capitals come close with a talented bunch of young stars and up and comers in Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin. They also have some veteran grit in Nylander, Kozlov and Federov. If this isn't a team of right now its a team of very soon.
You Want to Draft:
Alexander Ovechkin
Nicklas Backstrom
Alexander Semin
What hasn't been written about this guy? Ovechking, Alexander the Great, Oven-Chicken, Александр Михайлович Овечкин... whatever you call him Ovechkin is a serious consideration as your number one overall pick. 65 goals, 47 assists, +28, 446 SOG, 37 Powerplay points, and 11 GWG (if you use that stat). The only thing he doesn't do is spend time in the box. Ovechkin's position as a left wing and his absolute domination of two categories, goals and shots on goal, make him incredibly attractive as first overall. Plus he can do stuff like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzbmI6-YSnQ. He's been playing for three years and he already has a play that's referred to simply as "The Goal." What more do you need to know?
FACT: Ovechkin is only the 19th player in NHL history to reach the 60 goal plateau. The others: Phil Esposito, Reggie Leach, Steve Shutt, Guy Lafleur, Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky, Dennis Maruk, Lanny MacDonald, Jari Kurry, Mario Lemieux, Bernie Nichols, Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull, Alexander Mogilny, Teemu Selanne, Pavel Bure, Luc Robitalle and Jaromir Jagr.
Backstrom had a heck of a rookie season, scoring 69 points and playing a full year. If not for the double threat of Toews and Kane out in Chicago he certainly would have won the Calder. Furthermore, he added 6 points (4 goals and 2 assists) in the Capitals 7 game foray into the playoffs last season. I would expect a modest increase from Backstrom this year and would draft him as a competent second or excellent third center with a focus on him as an assist and powerplay specialist.
FACT: Backstrom really turned it on once he was placed on a line Ovechkin. Expect him to start as the number 1 center this year.
Semin had an off year. He missed 19 games to injury and only scored 42 points, falling way off pace of the 73 points he put up the year before. Despite these setbacks, Semin was still on pace to score over 30 goals. Semin takes a ton of shots and receives significant powerplay time. As he is a left wing capable of scoring over 35 goals, gettting 30 Powerplay Points and taking over 240 shots I'll give him a pretty strong recommendation here.
FACT: Semin also gets you PIM (90 in 06-07, 54 in 63 games in 07-08).
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Michael Nylander
Chris Clark
Eric Fehr
Nylander continued his career resurgence, started in New York by Jaromir Jagr, by scoring 37 points in 40 games last season before tearing his rotator cuff (an injury that ultimately required season ending surgery). In his abscence Nylander would appear to have lost his position centering Alexander Ovechkin to Nicklas Backstrom. It remains to be seen how that will affect Michael. Loss of first line time aside, Nylander will likely still see significant powerplay time, where he had 18 points in only 40 games, and will still be centering the OTHER Alexander on the team, giving the team two solid and balanced scoring lines. If Nylander isn't a point a game and/or receiving significant powerplay time his SOG will kill you, particularly for a center. So I would take your time on Mr. Nylander and see what develops.
FACT: Nylander has played for 7 different teams, one of them (the Capitals) twice.
Clark missed all but 18 games with a wonky groin. Yes wonky is a technical term. The season before Clark scored 30 goals, playing largely on Oveckin's Right Wing. If Clark wins that job again he could very well have a similar year (30 goals, 54 points). Its worth keeping an eye on.
FACT: Before Ovechkin's arrival in Washinton the 32 year old Clark had never scored more then 10 goals.
Fehr is Washington's other high first round offensive pick. Fehr was drafted 18th overall in 2003. He hasn't done much in the NHL but scored 41 points in 40 games in the AHL in 06-07. Last season Fehr suffered a herniated disc and missed much of the year, but was resigned to a one year deal by the Capitals in the off-season. This could very well be his last chance to flash his offensive chops for the Caps. The Caps are relatively light at Right Wing so if he makes the big club Fehr should have every chance. His pedigree is good enough that if he finds his way onto one of the top two lines he could really make some noise.
FACT: Though he hasn't shown it yet in the NHL, Fehr is something of a power forward. At 6'4" Fehr is the owner of an 84 point 129 PIM season and an 111 point, 91 PIM season in the WHL (junior hockey). I'm just saying... kid is a fantasy god in the waiting if he can make the transition.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Mike Green
Fast... heavy shot from the point... plays on the powerplay with Ovechkin... Poti is his only serious competition for that slot... what's not to like? And there is room for improvement! Green scored only 4 goals after the all star break last year, likely because the grind of his first full season had begun to wear him down. Still... Green led all defenseman in goals last season.
FACT: Holy crap where to start! OK... two facts for Green, I'll give him Poti's fact. One his nickname is "Game Over" for his clutch and overtime goals. Hell of name to give to a 22 year old. Ok...
FACT 2: Green's shot is so hard that when Patrick Thoresen laid down to block it in the first round of the playoffs, the puck actually broke his protective cup and nearly ruptured his testicle! Think about that the next time you go down to block a shot.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Tom Poti
Karl Alzner
Poti has consistently disappointed me. I put him here only because if Green goes down he's worth giving a look, and could very well have enough points to justify a low pick in deep leagues. He's only one season removed from a 44 point year with the Islanders. At 31 he's still a few years from being washed up, so he's worth at least a look.
Karl Alzner. Who? Karl Alzner? Alzner was drafted 5th overall in 2007. He may not even get a spot on the team this year, he's only 19, but he has been very very good in junior's (playing for Bret Hart's Team, The Calgary Hitmen). At 19 he is already the owner of a 47 and 36 point season (playing 63 and 60 games respectively). He's worth keeping an eye on, even if he doesn't make it to the big team at the start of the year.
FACT: Last season Alzner was named the WHL defenceman of the year AND the WHL player of the year.
The Powerplay:
Alexander Ovechkin
Alexander Semin
Nicklas Backstrom
Michael Nylander
Mike Green
Deadly efficient. Just the right number of shooters and passers. They are going to have to win a lot of games 4-3 and this powerplay is the key to that strategy.
The Goalie(s):
Theodore had... well he had a good year with the Avalanche. I can't believe I'm saying that. He split time with Budaj and put up respectable numbers in all three categories (28 wins in only 52 starts with a 2.44 GAA and .910 SV%). Theodore steps into a similar situation to the one he had in Colorado, minus the competition. He'll be playing behind a young, but improving, D and an offense that is steadily maturing but loaded with talent. Similar numbers (except for wins which should see a modest improvement to about 34) should be expected.
FACT: There is reason to worry. Last season was the first season since 03-04 where Theodore's GAA was below 3.00. I'm optimistic though.
Should Theodore need some spelling, Brent Johnson is a capable backup. I think we're still a few years off from the emergence of Varlamov, Washington's highly touted goalie prospect, but crazier things have happened.
The Verdict:
The Capitals are the gem in the rising Southeast Division. The Caps' young guns and veterans should keep them in the playoff race from wire to wire. Draft Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin and Green with confidence. Theodore is worth the risk and consideration should be given to Nylander and Poti for their significant upside.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Cap's Lock
Washington Capitals
The most important thing the Caps did this offseason was NOT let Mike Green walk. Green had a stunning breakout season with 18 goals and 38 assists. What a way for the 22 year old to announce his arrival. Will he have a 56 point year this year? I think he's the real deal so I'm going to say yes, that or better.
This is a team thats built for the future. With Green, Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin they have a good young nucleus which they've successfully surrounded with some solid veterans.
Unfortunately they weren't able to hang onto to Cristobal Huet. Huet was the best option available in net this offseason, and while Jose Theodore is still better then say Olaf Kolzig, he's too streaky for my liking. Theodore really turned it on after the all star break last year but then collapsed in the playoffs. Granted that wasn't a particularly good Colorado team, but neither is this an exceptionally good Washington team. The good news, for Jose, is that the Southeast Division isn't AS competitive (I expect an earful on this one ) as the Northwest, which last year was the toughest division in hockey when you weren't playing the Oilers. I would expect Theodore to be a decent 2nd goaltender on most fantasy squads.
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