Shooting Percentage is a new weekly feature on Breaking the Trap. Here I will do the one thing that most fantasy forecasters never do, admit when I'm wrong, and the thing that they are best at, brag about how right I was.
I WAS WRONG ABOUT VANEK... HE'S BETTER THEN CAMMALLERI
Thomas Vanek and I have a bit of a rocky history. Back in 2005, when I was just obsessed with hockey and not writing about it, Thomas Vanek was on my radar. Everyone was talking about Ovechkin and Crosby but I was looking for the under the radar pick. I found him in Buffalo's 2003 5th overal pick Thomas Vanek. He had good size and scouts said he had good speed and hands and a head for the game. I knew he wasn't someone worth drafting that season, per se, but I put him on my watch list and I think even had him on my team for a few stretches here and there.
The next season. I drafted him as the third to last pick. My very own Mr. Insignificant. Vanek would go on to have an amazing season notching 43 goals and adding 41 assists while being an astounding +46. He still wasn't shooting the puck enough or getting the powerplay time he deserved but Vanek was a legitimate fantasy superstar. There was only one problem... I dropped him less then two weeks into the season after watching the Sabres dominat the New York Rangers. Vanek notched only 1 shot on goal in the Sabres 7 goal outburst, wasn't receiving much ice time and had only a 1 goal and two assists through 5 games. I got jumpy and second guessed myself and dropped him for a player I refuse to name in this space. To my chagrin, he turned it on almost immediately, scoring 4 points in his next game. I went to pick him up but found that I was too late. My brother had already snagged him.
The next year I wouldn't be deterred. Though I knew Vanek would dip some as a result of the loss of Chris Drury and Daniel Briere I drafted him in the 4th round, thinking it a steal. After half a season of mediocre play I traded Vanek at a loss... at which time he proceeded to turn it on again and finished the season with respectable numbers.
I MAY have underestimated Vanek in my player rankings. Looking back he certainly should have been above Michael Cammalleri, who isn't playing with Iginla and isn't getting powerplay time by the by, and perhaps Semin and Sedin as well. Ovechkin, Zetterberg, Heatley, Morrow, Nash, and Kovalchuk however I refuse to believe won't finish ahead of Vanek in fantasy value. That said... I was wrong about Thomas Vanek. He's having an incredible start to this season and for the sake of you Vanek owners I hope it continues.
FACT: Now that I have gushed about Vanek he will stop scoring.
BUT WHAT ABOUT SHEA WEBER!!!?!!!?!
You guys that listened to me and drafted Shea Weber high, and or waited until late and snaked him like I did, have to be pretty happy with that pick right about now huh? 3 goals, 4 assists, +4, 8 PIM, 1 PPP and 15 shots on goal through 6 games!!! As of this morning Shea Weber was ranked third amongst all defensemen on Yahoo sports behind only Andrei Markov and Mike Green. While I think the likes of Phaneuf, Pronger, Lidstrom, et al will eventually pass him his BTT ranking of 12th is looking pretty solid.
Showing posts with label Nashville Predators. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nashville Predators. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
TEAM PREVIEWS: THE NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Introduction:
The young and wingless. No team had a rockier offseason then the Nashville Predators. None. Really. The franchise is on its third goalie in three years and could be on its fourth by the end of this season. Alexander Radulov was so disappointed with the organization that he signed a contract with the KHL and refused to honor the remaining year of his contract with the Predators starting what still seems like it could blossom into an international incident. Oh... and Steve Sullivan is still hurt.
I'm going to be straight with you trap-o-philes, other then the defense, which is stellar, there isn't a whole lot to like about this club. Rebuilding is in full swing, or dismantling. Take your pick.
Key Departures:
Chris Mason
Marek Zidlicky
The Predators supposedly traded Tomas Vokoun two seasons ago because they were confident in Mason's ability to assume the role of the starter. Then this offseason, after a rough year from Mason in his first season as a full time starter, the Predators traded Mason because they were confident that Dan Ellis would be capable of assuming the starter's mantle. This will be Ellis' first year in the crease full time. Sound familiar. I thought it would. Yeesh.
Zidlicky had to go. He's good but he was holding back all of the young talent that the Preds have on the blueline. Look for Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Dan Hamhuis to respond strongly to their increased ice time.
New Faces:
No one of consequence...
The Offense:
No one of... kidding. So its not quite THAT bad in Nashville, not yet anyway.
You Should Be Happy You Drafted:
Jason Arnott
JP Dumont
Arnott is everything to this team right now. He's the catalyst. He's the physical presence. He's the offense. He's the veteran leadership and the powerplay guy. He is going to have to bring it every night if the Preds are going to have a chance of being competitive.
FACT: Arnott suffered a head injury when Alexander Radulov "hugged him too hard" in the playoffs... Tough Radu-love.
JP Dumont is a very talented winger. His 72 points might be a bit too much to expect this season as Radulov really helped him step it up to another level last season... without hugging him. He is a solid late round pick.
FACT: Dumont had 8 game winning goals last season, tieing a franchise record.
You Want to Be Ready to Snag:
Martin Erat
I really do like Erat but until he shows that he is capable of more then 60 points his lack of shots and PIM are going to keep him from being a viable fantasy option. He received a seven year deal from the team this off-season, which boggles the mind considering their unwillingness to retain other forwards, and will have a lot to live up to.
FACT: Erat is a rarity in the NHL, a top line player selected late in the draft. Erat was selected in the 7th round of the 1999 NHL draft with the 191st pick.
The Defense:
Here's where things get sexy for this team. With Zidlicky gone there is no shortage of defenders who will be ready to step in and replace him on the man advantage. All of them are good but only 2 or 3 will be worth having on a fantasy team. Who you ask? Well happily I'm ready to answer that for you.
You Should Be Happy You Drafted:
Shea Weber
Ryan Suter
Weber never recovered from his knee injury at the beginning of the 07-08 season. All of that is behind now. Weber should have no problem regaining his 40 + point form and should add about 65 PIM for good measure.
FACT: Weber has a scintillating slapshot from the point and should benefit from increased powerplay time.
Suter was the 7th overall pick in the 2003 draft. At 23 he is way ahead of the curve for defensemen and could post a 40 plus point season for the first time this year. Weber is more of a goal scorer and Suter more of an assist guy but they both shot and they both rack up PIM. Because of where he plays you should be able to get him a little later then you might otherwise be able to.
FACT: Opponents of jingoism scroll down. Suter had this to say about representing the United States in international competition where he's been on three gold medal winning teams, "I feel it’s an honor to wear the Team USA Jersey and every time I’m on the ice I play my hardest and give everything I have. Playing for Team USA is one of those things you look forward to. When I got the call and was asked to play on this team, it was an easy answer. It didn’t matter who was on the team or who the coach was. It’s just an honor to wear the jersey and compete for your country."
You Want to Be Ready to Snag:
Ville Koistinen
Dan Hamhuis
Seriously, all of their defenders are good. Hamhuis was the 12th overall pick in the 2001 draft and Koistinen, who was undrafted, managed to score 17 points in only 48 games last year. If either of these guys start seeing regular powerplay time they will be worth a roster spot.
FACT: Hamhuis' nickname is "Hammer" because of his crunching bodychecks. For those of that have seen Dr. Horrible's Sing Along Blog "These aren't the hammer. The hammer is my..." bodycheck.
The Powerplay:
JP Dumont
Martin Erat
Jason Arnott
Shea Weber
Ryan Suter
This unit is going to miss Radulov's shiftiness and creativity. That said Arnott will be an effective screen and Suter and Weber are both great options at the point. It will be effective but it is still missing a piece or two.
The Goalie(s)
I'm going to say it right now. Pekka Rinne will start at least 28 games this year. I'm calling it. I like Ellis. He was pretty lights out last year and should be drafted as a number 2 goalie in most leagues, but its just not clear that this franchise knows how to manage its goalies. Ellis' save percentage was sterling last year at .924 and he managed 23 wins in 44 appearances... still I can't help but be concerned.
FACT: In 2006-2007 Chris Mason played 40 games for the Predators after Vokoun had problems with his hip mid-season. Anyone want to guess what his Sv.% was that year? .925. This is why I'm concerned about Ellis.
The Verdict:
The Predators will be more competitive then they have any right to be due to the spectacular group of young d-men and the gutsy play of one or more of their goalies. However they will fall short of the playoffs for the first time since 2002-2003.
The young and wingless. No team had a rockier offseason then the Nashville Predators. None. Really. The franchise is on its third goalie in three years and could be on its fourth by the end of this season. Alexander Radulov was so disappointed with the organization that he signed a contract with the KHL and refused to honor the remaining year of his contract with the Predators starting what still seems like it could blossom into an international incident. Oh... and Steve Sullivan is still hurt.
I'm going to be straight with you trap-o-philes, other then the defense, which is stellar, there isn't a whole lot to like about this club. Rebuilding is in full swing, or dismantling. Take your pick.
Key Departures:
Chris Mason
Marek Zidlicky
The Predators supposedly traded Tomas Vokoun two seasons ago because they were confident in Mason's ability to assume the role of the starter. Then this offseason, after a rough year from Mason in his first season as a full time starter, the Predators traded Mason because they were confident that Dan Ellis would be capable of assuming the starter's mantle. This will be Ellis' first year in the crease full time. Sound familiar. I thought it would. Yeesh.
Zidlicky had to go. He's good but he was holding back all of the young talent that the Preds have on the blueline. Look for Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Dan Hamhuis to respond strongly to their increased ice time.
New Faces:
No one of consequence...
The Offense:
No one of... kidding. So its not quite THAT bad in Nashville, not yet anyway.
You Should Be Happy You Drafted:
Jason Arnott
JP Dumont
Arnott is everything to this team right now. He's the catalyst. He's the physical presence. He's the offense. He's the veteran leadership and the powerplay guy. He is going to have to bring it every night if the Preds are going to have a chance of being competitive.
FACT: Arnott suffered a head injury when Alexander Radulov "hugged him too hard" in the playoffs... Tough Radu-love.
JP Dumont is a very talented winger. His 72 points might be a bit too much to expect this season as Radulov really helped him step it up to another level last season... without hugging him. He is a solid late round pick.
FACT: Dumont had 8 game winning goals last season, tieing a franchise record.
You Want to Be Ready to Snag:
Martin Erat
I really do like Erat but until he shows that he is capable of more then 60 points his lack of shots and PIM are going to keep him from being a viable fantasy option. He received a seven year deal from the team this off-season, which boggles the mind considering their unwillingness to retain other forwards, and will have a lot to live up to.
FACT: Erat is a rarity in the NHL, a top line player selected late in the draft. Erat was selected in the 7th round of the 1999 NHL draft with the 191st pick.
The Defense:
Here's where things get sexy for this team. With Zidlicky gone there is no shortage of defenders who will be ready to step in and replace him on the man advantage. All of them are good but only 2 or 3 will be worth having on a fantasy team. Who you ask? Well happily I'm ready to answer that for you.
You Should Be Happy You Drafted:
Shea Weber
Ryan Suter
Weber never recovered from his knee injury at the beginning of the 07-08 season. All of that is behind now. Weber should have no problem regaining his 40 + point form and should add about 65 PIM for good measure.
FACT: Weber has a scintillating slapshot from the point and should benefit from increased powerplay time.
Suter was the 7th overall pick in the 2003 draft. At 23 he is way ahead of the curve for defensemen and could post a 40 plus point season for the first time this year. Weber is more of a goal scorer and Suter more of an assist guy but they both shot and they both rack up PIM. Because of where he plays you should be able to get him a little later then you might otherwise be able to.
FACT: Opponents of jingoism scroll down. Suter had this to say about representing the United States in international competition where he's been on three gold medal winning teams, "I feel it’s an honor to wear the Team USA Jersey and every time I’m on the ice I play my hardest and give everything I have. Playing for Team USA is one of those things you look forward to. When I got the call and was asked to play on this team, it was an easy answer. It didn’t matter who was on the team or who the coach was. It’s just an honor to wear the jersey and compete for your country."
You Want to Be Ready to Snag:
Ville Koistinen
Dan Hamhuis
Seriously, all of their defenders are good. Hamhuis was the 12th overall pick in the 2001 draft and Koistinen, who was undrafted, managed to score 17 points in only 48 games last year. If either of these guys start seeing regular powerplay time they will be worth a roster spot.
FACT: Hamhuis' nickname is "Hammer" because of his crunching bodychecks. For those of that have seen Dr. Horrible's Sing Along Blog "These aren't the hammer. The hammer is my..." bodycheck.
The Powerplay:
JP Dumont
Martin Erat
Jason Arnott
Shea Weber
Ryan Suter
This unit is going to miss Radulov's shiftiness and creativity. That said Arnott will be an effective screen and Suter and Weber are both great options at the point. It will be effective but it is still missing a piece or two.
The Goalie(s)
I'm going to say it right now. Pekka Rinne will start at least 28 games this year. I'm calling it. I like Ellis. He was pretty lights out last year and should be drafted as a number 2 goalie in most leagues, but its just not clear that this franchise knows how to manage its goalies. Ellis' save percentage was sterling last year at .924 and he managed 23 wins in 44 appearances... still I can't help but be concerned.
FACT: In 2006-2007 Chris Mason played 40 games for the Predators after Vokoun had problems with his hip mid-season. Anyone want to guess what his Sv.% was that year? .925. This is why I'm concerned about Ellis.
The Verdict:
The Predators will be more competitive then they have any right to be due to the spectacular group of young d-men and the gutsy play of one or more of their goalies. However they will fall short of the playoffs for the first time since 2002-2003.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Radulov suspended by Predators
David Polie, GM of the Nashville Predators, stated today that Alexander Radulov has refused to return to the NHL and will instead spend the season with his Russian KHL team. Polie said Radulov hasn't responded to any of their recent correspondence.
In Radulov the Predators have lost a world class talent. This shows you the realities of the new NHL. You have to play your young guys or they will walk. They aren't playing here for the money, they can get that elsewhere, and many of these guys are playing thousands of miles away from home for a chance at making a name for themselves on the biggest possible stage. If they aren't going to get that opportunity, particularly when they have the talent Radulov does, they will just go home.
This hurts the Predators immeasurably. While they have depth at D they lack it at forward, particularly on the wing where an ailing Steve Sullivan is the second best option behind only Martin Erat. Predators team preview will also arrive tomorrow. I had drafted it on Friday before reading about the Monday deadline the Preds had laid down for Radulov.
In Radulov the Predators have lost a world class talent. This shows you the realities of the new NHL. You have to play your young guys or they will walk. They aren't playing here for the money, they can get that elsewhere, and many of these guys are playing thousands of miles away from home for a chance at making a name for themselves on the biggest possible stage. If they aren't going to get that opportunity, particularly when they have the talent Radulov does, they will just go home.
This hurts the Predators immeasurably. While they have depth at D they lack it at forward, particularly on the wing where an ailing Steve Sullivan is the second best option behind only Martin Erat. Predators team preview will also arrive tomorrow. I had drafted it on Friday before reading about the Monday deadline the Preds had laid down for Radulov.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Predatory Thinking
Nashville Predators
Controversy over Radulov notwithstanding (something I'll address in the team previews once the situation gets a little clearer) Nashville is a team in flux.
They have a lot of talent, more then you probably realize, particularly on D. However the Predators just lack that scoring punch up front. If Steve Sullivan is healthy this year, well that might change things. I'm getting ahead of myself though.
About the only significant things that happened here in the offseason were the resolving of some controversies in goal and on D. By allowing Chris Mason to walk Nashville has made Dan Ellis the presumptive number one goalie. This was the right choice. Ellis was the better of the two goalies for the entire season, winning 23 of his 44 starts and posting a 2.39 GAA and .924 Sv. %. Its unknown whether Ellis will be able to carry these numbers across a full season as last years 44 games make up the majority of his 45 game career. With no significant competition Ellis is definitely the number 1, just beware of a sophmore slump and try to trade him while his value remains high.
Zidlicky's departure also signals a shift to the promotion of the talented young D-corps. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter should both see polite bumps in their production as a result.
Controversy over Radulov notwithstanding (something I'll address in the team previews once the situation gets a little clearer) Nashville is a team in flux.
They have a lot of talent, more then you probably realize, particularly on D. However the Predators just lack that scoring punch up front. If Steve Sullivan is healthy this year, well that might change things. I'm getting ahead of myself though.
About the only significant things that happened here in the offseason were the resolving of some controversies in goal and on D. By allowing Chris Mason to walk Nashville has made Dan Ellis the presumptive number one goalie. This was the right choice. Ellis was the better of the two goalies for the entire season, winning 23 of his 44 starts and posting a 2.39 GAA and .924 Sv. %. Its unknown whether Ellis will be able to carry these numbers across a full season as last years 44 games make up the majority of his 45 game career. With no significant competition Ellis is definitely the number 1, just beware of a sophmore slump and try to trade him while his value remains high.
Zidlicky's departure also signals a shift to the promotion of the talented young D-corps. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter should both see polite bumps in their production as a result.
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