The Tampa Bay Lightning management have tossed back the biggest piece of their rebuilding effort in new head coach Barry Melrose. He should have never cut the mullet. With it went the source of all of his power.
Barry. We hardly knew you. Its a tough call to fire a guy when you give him a team made up of individuals who had never played together before this season. Sure they looked great on paper... until you got to the defensemen. That was the problem with this team from beginning, they were a decent fantasy team but no one could tell whether that would translate to success on the ice. It didn't, and Barry paid the price for the GM's incompetence. Poor Barry.
What's the moral of this? Actual teams are already starting to adjust their rosters, trim the fat, and take their best shot at undoing the damage they did to their own teams in the offseason. Its time for you to do the same.
Keep 'Em:
Kris Versteeg
RW, Chicago
Okay... last time I'm saying this. Versteeg now has 15 points in 16 games this season. He has three goals in the last four games and has scored 7 points in 6 games in the month of November. The window for delay on Versteeg is shrinking and the talented rookie is showing no signs of slowing down.
Joe Pavelski
C, San Jose
You missed out on Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau in the draft. You took some bad advice from some blogger not named Richard O'Brien and drafted Jonathan Cheechoo way too early. And, of course, you didn't listen to me and pick up Devin Setoguchi or Ryan Clowe when I told you to. Now every time you look at the standings and realize that San Jose has scored more goals then anyone else in the league (73) by a wide margin (the next closest is Detroit with 64) you feel like you missed out on the party. Well, you're in luck because Joe Pavelski is probably still available in your league. Pavelski has 7 goals and 9 assists for 16 points through the first 20 games. Of those 16, 6 points (2 goals and 4 assists) came over the course of the last week and 8 (3 goals and 5 assists) have come on the powerplay. He is averaging a little over 3 shots a game and is a +1. As centers go he's kind of average, but he would make a great util player in most leagues. Grab him before you miss out entirely on the Shark Party.
Cam Barker
D, Chicago
Still the subject of widespread trade speculation, Cam Barker has responded with terrific play on the ice. Barker has 9 points in 8 games with the big club this year, with 6 of those points coming on the man advantage. Those 9 points are good for second amongst Hawks D-men with only Brian Campbell above him with 12. This showing becomes even more impressive when you consider that he has played in half the games that the rest of the team has played. The former third overall draft pick is doing a bit of everything, including getting a fighting major in the November 14th 4-3 loss to St. Louis. Grab him now.
Weigh 'Em:
Jordan Staal
C, LW Pittsburgh
You have to love the way Jordan Staal is playing right now. Staal, who had a tremendous rookie season in which he notched 29 goals, has been on something of a slide over the last year or so. This slide came to an abrupt halt this past week as Stall put up 5 goals and an assist over the last three games for the Pens. What you have to like is not only the tallies but the way in which he scored them. Down 5-3 against their Stanley Cup tormentors the Detroit Red Wings, Staal rallied and scored three even strength goals in the last 12 minutes to force overtime. Then, in the overtime period Staal assisted on Fedotenko's overtime winner. He followed this up later in the week with a strong 2 goal performance against the cooling Buffalo Sabers to bring his totals for the season up to 7 goals and 4 assists. Those may not seem like overly flashy numbers, but if this is the beginning of his reemergence then you want to get in on the ground floor.
David Perron, Lee Stempniak
LW, RW St. Louis
With Kariya and McDonald both down to injuries Perron and Stempniak have really stepped up over the last week to provide scoring in their absence. As St. Louis soldiers on through these injuries expect scoring to come from secondary sources. It might be worth a bench slot to try and catch a streak from one of these talented players. Stempniak in particular shoots the puck a ton and has seen some significant time on the powerplay.
Philippe Boucher
D, Pittsburgh
The acquisition of Boucher was a necessary one by the Pens despite his shoddy play thus far this season on the Dalls Stars. Boucher provides a seasoned veteran to man the point on the powerplay. More importantly, it gives the Pens a RIGHT HANDED shot on the point, something that they were lacking during Gonchar and Whitney's injuries. I like this acquisition by the Pens for a number of reasons. For one, it frees up Evgeni Malkin to be a bit more free wheeling on the man advantage. The Pens have given up some heart stopping short handed opportunities in the last few games when opposing forwards pressured Malkin on the point. Malkin has been the Penguins offense so far this year, but he still doesn't know how to skate back and play D as the pointman on the man advantage. Boucher will take care of that and should help with some scoring punch from the point.
Alex Goligoski
D, Pittsburgh
On the flips side, the Boucher acquisition probably puts a bit of a halt on Goligoski's development. Despite his recent scoring streak, Goligoski will more then likely see his powerplay time diminish rapidly. If you still have him on your team you might want to consider benching him for a few games to see how this plays out. If it plays out as expected I foresee his availability skyrocketing in most leagues.
Toss 'Em Back:
Andrei Kostitsyn
LW, Montreal
I've been holding off on this one but with 6 points through 14 games I might have finally given up on Kostitsyn the greater. Montreal is in a bit of funk right now, which will happen even to great teams in their best years. Even taking that into account, Kostitsyn has barely shown any signs of life as of late with long stretches of mediocrity punctuated by one or two point streaks. Put simply, Kostitsyn doesn't deliver enough in the intangible categories to keep him on your team if he isn't scoring, and right now he isn't scoring. Take that as you will.
Erik Cole
RW, Edmonton
Rough times in Edmonton. Cole, The Oilers big offseason acquisition, has only put up 5 points through the first 18 games with his new club. He has been a relatively quiet presence and hasn't even provided much in the way of shots of PIM. I was high on Cole preseason; thinking him a good sleeper pick because of his gritty play and his tendency to rack up the shots, PIM and points. It seems that there have just been one too many injuries for Cole and that his best years of hockey are now behind him as a result.
Matt Carle
D, Philadelphia
Carle was once thought of as an impressive young prospect. Since then he has been moved twice in one year, first from San Jose as the lynch pin of the deal that brought Dan Boyle to the future Stanley Cup Champions (what? Thats right, I'm calling it. Its happening.) and then, less then a quarter of a season later from Tampa to Philly for Steve Downie. Until Carle shows something, anything, resembling offensive skill with his new team I'd leave him right where he belongs; on waivers.
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Lightning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Lightning. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Friday, November 14, 2008
Breaking the Mullet!
Barry Melrose has been fired as the head coach of the Tampa Bay Lightening. Hair Grease Suppliers throughout Tampa have closed up shop but the fishing industry has raised its outlook for the remainder of the 2008-2009 season.
Rick Tochet will take over for Barry as interim coach... gambling boats off Tampa's coasts have also started to increase their fleet.
More on this story and hockey in general later tonight. Right now I have to go see Bond... James Bond.
Rick Tochet will take over for Barry as interim coach... gambling boats off Tampa's coasts have also started to increase their fleet.
More on this story and hockey in general later tonight. Right now I have to go see Bond... James Bond.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Ice Fishing: Tending Your Goal
I was just like 6 weeks early on David Booth! Booth potted goals 5, 6, and 7 of the year last night against the Anaheim Ducks. Heh. It was a busy weekend in the NHL and, as is often the case when many games are played, a lot of interesting storylines.
Booth was one of two hat tricks this weekend, the other came off the stick of the freshly signed Mark Parrish in his Dallas Stars debut. Goals 1, 2 and 3 in game 1... not bad Mark.
From momentous "goals" to momentous "goal" Sunday marked the return of Jonathan Toews to the "G" category as he scored his first goal of the season in game number 13. Those of you who have remained faithful to Mr. Toews through this slump should be relatively pleased with all the follows. Its not like he hasn't contributed in other ways as he has 9 points through 13 games.
Roberto Luongo stretched his shutout streak to three straight games. That's bound to end soon enough but consider this: This is the second time Luongo has had three consecutive shutouts while a member of the Vancouver Canucks and Luongo already has 16 shutouts in Van-city, 4 shy of the franchise record. All that for Todd Bertuzzi and some lint. Deal of the century.
Boston is tied with Buffalo for the top seed in that division... granted they've both played two more games then Montreal but wow... I mean who saw that coming.
Kevin Weekes is exactly the goalie I remember him being from his time as the Rangers starter. He will give you competent enough goaltending to ensure that you don't get blown out in any game. Devils fans we are in for a series of frustrating 1 or 2 goal losses. On the plus side, Parise owners expect him to be let off of his chain, so to speak, offensively.
In injury news, Paul Kariya's MRI was negative and he should return Wednesday, Brian Boucher is filling in for Nabakov for the foreseeable future, and Danny Briere returned to the Flyers over the weekend and scored their lone goal in a 2-1 loss to Tampa Bay. More on all of these situations in the BTT Injury Report tomorrow.
Speaking of Philly they traded Steve Downie and a bag of chips for Matt Carle over the weekend. Carle has looked... less then spectacular defensively this season which makes this trade a curious one to me. What Philly needs are some shutdown d-men as they are already loaded offensively speaking with Coburn and Timonen. I think this move effectively buries Carle, fantasy wise as he is now third on the depth chart for powerplay point time
All right, enough posturing, you want your adds and drops for the week, well here you go.
Keep 'Em
Bryan Little
C, Atlanta
You know that a center has to be performing spectacularly for me to suggest his addition to your team. Bryan Little is on fire (8 goals and 7 assists through 15 games) and is a former 12th overall pick... so this is the sort of thing that's expected of him. He's a plus 7 on an abysmal team. He doesn't shoot much but he is otherwise a good add to your fantasy team. I like him so much I'm not even going to make a "little" joke.
Martin Erat
RW, Nashville
Ownership sent a message over the summer by making Martin Erat the highest paid player on this team. The message was that this was now his team and he was expected to carry it with nearly every other familiar face, Arnott and the stellar D excepted, departing Erat was expected to raise his game to another level. So far he has done just that. Again, shots on goal are an issue but he seems to be raising his game in every other respect.
Mike Smith
G, Tampa Bay
Love him or hate him, Smith is the only reason Tampa has won any games this season, and they are starting to get some good gritty wins. Smith is a tough start, as on a given night he can either let up 1 goal on 52 shots or 5 goals on 26, but he balances himself out in the long run. If you are confident in your ability to play "Spot Start Roulette" then Smith is a spectacular addition as a third goalie.
Weigh 'Em
Manny Legace
G, St. Louis
Legace is a good goalie. It doesn't look that way right now because he's still rusty after returning from the "lower body" injury he suffered after face-planting on Sarah Pallin's carpet (100% dirty but also 100% factual) but I think it will bear out over time; particularly once Kariya returns to the lineup.
Niklas Hagman
LW, Toronto
I still say this has to stop eventually but you might want to consider picking him up until this streak does eventually conclude.
Alex Auld
G, Ottawa
There are and will be very few sure things on waiver as it relates to goaltenders (my recommendation of Mike Smith above should sort of prove that point). Auld might still be available in your league. He has thus far put up stellar numbers (5-2-1, 1.85 GAA and 2.36 SV %) and has looked good doing it. The only reason I'm not giving him my highest recommendation is that he probably has the lowest job security in the NHL right now. He's a roll of the dice, but a good one.
Vaclav Prospal
LW, Tampa Bay
Tampa is streaking right now and that means that that top line is coming alive. Prospal is the only member of the top line that should still be out there. He might be worth a speculative add if you've got the roster space.
Bill Guerin
RW, New York Islanders
Billy G. is one of my all time favorite hockey players. He can skate, won the fastest skater competition at the All star game, shoot, pass and score, but he also plays the gritty side of the game and isn't afraid to go into the corner with anyone. I don't think he has enough left in the tank to put together a full season of fantasy roster-worthy play but Bill still has enough in the tank to put together a streak every so often. December and January were Guerin's months last year. This season its looking like the addition of Doug Weight has brought those months early. Guerin, when he is scoring hurts you nowhere but in the plus-minus column, unlike Weight who will give you two shots a game at most. As long as the streak lasts he's worth having, but you have to be ready to let go when its done.
Toss 'Em
Vesa Toskala
G, Toronto
Despite Toronto's recent success Toskala's number remain abysmal, 6 wins 3.08 GAA and .884 SV %. Its not his fault, but that doesn't change the fact that he's barely a candidate for spot starts at this point.
Ed Jovonovski
D, Phoenix
I'm not sure but I think it might be time to panic. He's still taking shots but the PIM points and plus minus aren't there yet this season. Ballard and Boynton's departure seems to be putting a lot of the defensive pressure back on Jovo-cop. I don't know that I drop him yet but I certainly bench him.
Jose Theodore
G, Washington
I hate to say I told you so... Brent Johnson has now gotten the last 3 starts for Washington. Theodore is having trouble even getting time on the bench as the backup. I'm not saying he won't have some incredible streak at some point this season but is that really what you want out of a number 2 goalie? Bench him or drop him. There's better out there... including Brent Johnson.
Booth was one of two hat tricks this weekend, the other came off the stick of the freshly signed Mark Parrish in his Dallas Stars debut. Goals 1, 2 and 3 in game 1... not bad Mark.
From momentous "goals" to momentous "goal" Sunday marked the return of Jonathan Toews to the "G" category as he scored his first goal of the season in game number 13. Those of you who have remained faithful to Mr. Toews through this slump should be relatively pleased with all the follows. Its not like he hasn't contributed in other ways as he has 9 points through 13 games.
Roberto Luongo stretched his shutout streak to three straight games. That's bound to end soon enough but consider this: This is the second time Luongo has had three consecutive shutouts while a member of the Vancouver Canucks and Luongo already has 16 shutouts in Van-city, 4 shy of the franchise record. All that for Todd Bertuzzi and some lint. Deal of the century.
Boston is tied with Buffalo for the top seed in that division... granted they've both played two more games then Montreal but wow... I mean who saw that coming.
Kevin Weekes is exactly the goalie I remember him being from his time as the Rangers starter. He will give you competent enough goaltending to ensure that you don't get blown out in any game. Devils fans we are in for a series of frustrating 1 or 2 goal losses. On the plus side, Parise owners expect him to be let off of his chain, so to speak, offensively.
In injury news, Paul Kariya's MRI was negative and he should return Wednesday, Brian Boucher is filling in for Nabakov for the foreseeable future, and Danny Briere returned to the Flyers over the weekend and scored their lone goal in a 2-1 loss to Tampa Bay. More on all of these situations in the BTT Injury Report tomorrow.
Speaking of Philly they traded Steve Downie and a bag of chips for Matt Carle over the weekend. Carle has looked... less then spectacular defensively this season which makes this trade a curious one to me. What Philly needs are some shutdown d-men as they are already loaded offensively speaking with Coburn and Timonen. I think this move effectively buries Carle, fantasy wise as he is now third on the depth chart for powerplay point time
All right, enough posturing, you want your adds and drops for the week, well here you go.
Keep 'Em
Bryan Little
C, Atlanta
You know that a center has to be performing spectacularly for me to suggest his addition to your team. Bryan Little is on fire (8 goals and 7 assists through 15 games) and is a former 12th overall pick... so this is the sort of thing that's expected of him. He's a plus 7 on an abysmal team. He doesn't shoot much but he is otherwise a good add to your fantasy team. I like him so much I'm not even going to make a "little" joke.
Martin Erat
RW, Nashville
Ownership sent a message over the summer by making Martin Erat the highest paid player on this team. The message was that this was now his team and he was expected to carry it with nearly every other familiar face, Arnott and the stellar D excepted, departing Erat was expected to raise his game to another level. So far he has done just that. Again, shots on goal are an issue but he seems to be raising his game in every other respect.
Mike Smith
G, Tampa Bay
Love him or hate him, Smith is the only reason Tampa has won any games this season, and they are starting to get some good gritty wins. Smith is a tough start, as on a given night he can either let up 1 goal on 52 shots or 5 goals on 26, but he balances himself out in the long run. If you are confident in your ability to play "Spot Start Roulette" then Smith is a spectacular addition as a third goalie.
Weigh 'Em
Manny Legace
G, St. Louis
Legace is a good goalie. It doesn't look that way right now because he's still rusty after returning from the "lower body" injury he suffered after face-planting on Sarah Pallin's carpet (100% dirty but also 100% factual) but I think it will bear out over time; particularly once Kariya returns to the lineup.
Niklas Hagman
LW, Toronto
I still say this has to stop eventually but you might want to consider picking him up until this streak does eventually conclude.
Alex Auld
G, Ottawa
There are and will be very few sure things on waiver as it relates to goaltenders (my recommendation of Mike Smith above should sort of prove that point). Auld might still be available in your league. He has thus far put up stellar numbers (5-2-1, 1.85 GAA and 2.36 SV %) and has looked good doing it. The only reason I'm not giving him my highest recommendation is that he probably has the lowest job security in the NHL right now. He's a roll of the dice, but a good one.
Vaclav Prospal
LW, Tampa Bay
Tampa is streaking right now and that means that that top line is coming alive. Prospal is the only member of the top line that should still be out there. He might be worth a speculative add if you've got the roster space.
Bill Guerin
RW, New York Islanders
Billy G. is one of my all time favorite hockey players. He can skate, won the fastest skater competition at the All star game, shoot, pass and score, but he also plays the gritty side of the game and isn't afraid to go into the corner with anyone. I don't think he has enough left in the tank to put together a full season of fantasy roster-worthy play but Bill still has enough in the tank to put together a streak every so often. December and January were Guerin's months last year. This season its looking like the addition of Doug Weight has brought those months early. Guerin, when he is scoring hurts you nowhere but in the plus-minus column, unlike Weight who will give you two shots a game at most. As long as the streak lasts he's worth having, but you have to be ready to let go when its done.
Toss 'Em
Vesa Toskala
G, Toronto
Despite Toronto's recent success Toskala's number remain abysmal, 6 wins 3.08 GAA and .884 SV %. Its not his fault, but that doesn't change the fact that he's barely a candidate for spot starts at this point.
Ed Jovonovski
D, Phoenix
I'm not sure but I think it might be time to panic. He's still taking shots but the PIM points and plus minus aren't there yet this season. Ballard and Boynton's departure seems to be putting a lot of the defensive pressure back on Jovo-cop. I don't know that I drop him yet but I certainly bench him.
Jose Theodore
G, Washington
I hate to say I told you so... Brent Johnson has now gotten the last 3 starts for Washington. Theodore is having trouble even getting time on the bench as the backup. I'm not saying he won't have some incredible streak at some point this season but is that really what you want out of a number 2 goalie? Bench him or drop him. There's better out there... including Brent Johnson.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Thoughts on Last Night's Games
About the time that Mike Smith shoved his blocker into Aaron Voros' mouth I was positive that I was sitting at the most exciting game in the NHL last night until I saw the scores of the Edmonton/Pittsburgh game, Washington/Carolina game and Calgary/Nashville. Any doubts that scoring is up this year in the NHL can be quickly dispelled by a quick glance at last night's scoreboard. Of 11 games only 2 had less then 5 goals; 3 had 7 goals; and 3 more had 9 or more. The big one was Calgary v. Nashville which featured a grand total of thirteen tallies. Enough babbling... lots going on...
-To yesterday's BTT Injury update add the following:
- Paul Kariya left Wednesday's game in Anaheim in the second period with an undisclosed lower body injury. He returned to St. Louis for an MRI and missed yesterday's game against San Jose. St. Louis is in the middle of a road trip and plays Los Angeles tomorrow night before flying off to Buffalo for a game next Wednesday. Best case scenario I would expect Kariya to miss at least Saturday's game in LA.
- Joe Sakic missed last night's game against Minnesota with a strained lower back. This is the kind of injury that you worry about with an older player as its the kind of the thing that can become recurring. I wouldn't be too worried about Joe though as he has been a point a game so far and will play unless he is physically incapable.
- Brent Burns left Minnesota's road trip with a dreaded upper body injury. Burns hasn't really caught fire yet this year but if you still have him on your team be aware that he is going to miss at least a few games.
- Evgeni Nabakov oh noes! Nabakov finished the game against St. Louis slumped over on the ice. San Jose is calling it a "lower body injury" today but several sources are saying that he "did something" to his "left leg" and that's at least a little bit more specific. His backup, Brian Boucher, is not spectacular fantasy wise but San Jose might be good enough for a speculative add if you've got a free roster spot.
- A miniature Breaking the Slump:
Congratulations to a pair of Mighty Mites who broke their slumps last night at the Rangers/Tampa Bay game. Martin St. Louis scored one of the prettiest goals I have ever seen. He took the puck, kicked it behind his back up to his stick then skated backwards towards Lundqvist before switching to his backhand and popping the puck top shelf. Follow that? Neither did Hank. It was a freaking street hockey goal.
Marty has had a tough start to the season, but I wouldn't be worried if I were a St. Louis owner. The guy has a history of being streaky but I still think he'll get you somewhere between 70 and 80 points. The big concern, as it is with all Tampa Bay players, has to be the powerplay. I'm not convinced that that is going to change. Watching as many Tampa games as I, unfortunately, have it would seem that their special teams are just... well... off. The penalty kill is just... wow
Also on the score sheet last night, Chris Drury came out of the fog and potted a hat trick. Good for Dru... I don't think this makes him fantasy worthy yet, as you've probably already missed his production for the next few games (and he's currently the Rangers third line center). Big wait and see for Drury.
-Observations on last nights games
- Mike Smith owners... don't you wish goalie PIM's counted? Mike Smith channeled Billy Smith last night and dropped the gloves against Aaron Voros after battling with him for the entire game. Smith apparently saw a vacancy for "Rangers fans most hated goalie" with Marty out and decided to put in his application. Another point. How good is Voros? Still miss Sean Avery Rangers' fans?
- WHOOPS! Blake Wheeler recorded his first NHL hat trick for the Boston Bruins last night. Congrats to Whoops on the achievement. Wheeler, I think, still needs another year before he is reliable fantasy contributor but he is turning into a very fun player to watch.
- Pittsburgh fans! Be discouraged with Fleury's play (though putting up 4 goals and losing is Edmonton's Modus Operandi these days) but be encouraged by the play of Miroslav Satan and Petr Sykora. The Pens put up 5 goals last night and none of them were scored by Crosby or Malkin. Satan is on fire right now (8 goals) but Sykora has been slow to the starting gate. Well, 2 goals last night plus some powerplay time encourages me. If you've got Sykora on your bench it might be a good time to start playing him.
- Shea...motherflippin... Weber... that is all. No. OK so did I think he'd have 7 goals at this point in the season? No, but he does and now you need to figure out what to do with him? Guys like Weber, Semin and Vanek are all performing above their lofty expectations. Is it time to consider selling high? No I don't think so, particularly with Weber and Semin. Weber could very well continue to be a strong contributor throughout the year. He has 7 goals, top amongst d-men, and is ranked second to only Chris Pronger in standard Yahoo leagues. I think he finishes the year in the top 15 amongst d-men and I don't think you'll get that kind of return on him. Same for Semin, the return won't be worth what you are giving up.
- LUONGO! 2 shutouts in a row. Luongo owners... exhale.
- Ryan Clowe... two goals and the shootout winner... told you to watch him preseason based on his strong postseason and told you to pick him up yesterday... just saying. Setoguchi had another great night as well with two assists and 4 SOG.
That's all for now. I should be back a little bit later on in the day with updates, news, musings, etc.
-To yesterday's BTT Injury update add the following:
- Paul Kariya left Wednesday's game in Anaheim in the second period with an undisclosed lower body injury. He returned to St. Louis for an MRI and missed yesterday's game against San Jose. St. Louis is in the middle of a road trip and plays Los Angeles tomorrow night before flying off to Buffalo for a game next Wednesday. Best case scenario I would expect Kariya to miss at least Saturday's game in LA.
- Joe Sakic missed last night's game against Minnesota with a strained lower back. This is the kind of injury that you worry about with an older player as its the kind of the thing that can become recurring. I wouldn't be too worried about Joe though as he has been a point a game so far and will play unless he is physically incapable.
- Brent Burns left Minnesota's road trip with a dreaded upper body injury. Burns hasn't really caught fire yet this year but if you still have him on your team be aware that he is going to miss at least a few games.
- Evgeni Nabakov oh noes! Nabakov finished the game against St. Louis slumped over on the ice. San Jose is calling it a "lower body injury" today but several sources are saying that he "did something" to his "left leg" and that's at least a little bit more specific. His backup, Brian Boucher, is not spectacular fantasy wise but San Jose might be good enough for a speculative add if you've got a free roster spot.
- A miniature Breaking the Slump:
Congratulations to a pair of Mighty Mites who broke their slumps last night at the Rangers/Tampa Bay game. Martin St. Louis scored one of the prettiest goals I have ever seen. He took the puck, kicked it behind his back up to his stick then skated backwards towards Lundqvist before switching to his backhand and popping the puck top shelf. Follow that? Neither did Hank. It was a freaking street hockey goal.
Marty has had a tough start to the season, but I wouldn't be worried if I were a St. Louis owner. The guy has a history of being streaky but I still think he'll get you somewhere between 70 and 80 points. The big concern, as it is with all Tampa Bay players, has to be the powerplay. I'm not convinced that that is going to change. Watching as many Tampa games as I, unfortunately, have it would seem that their special teams are just... well... off. The penalty kill is just... wow
Also on the score sheet last night, Chris Drury came out of the fog and potted a hat trick. Good for Dru... I don't think this makes him fantasy worthy yet, as you've probably already missed his production for the next few games (and he's currently the Rangers third line center). Big wait and see for Drury.
-Observations on last nights games
- Mike Smith owners... don't you wish goalie PIM's counted? Mike Smith channeled Billy Smith last night and dropped the gloves against Aaron Voros after battling with him for the entire game. Smith apparently saw a vacancy for "Rangers fans most hated goalie" with Marty out and decided to put in his application. Another point. How good is Voros? Still miss Sean Avery Rangers' fans?
- WHOOPS! Blake Wheeler recorded his first NHL hat trick for the Boston Bruins last night. Congrats to Whoops on the achievement. Wheeler, I think, still needs another year before he is reliable fantasy contributor but he is turning into a very fun player to watch.
- Pittsburgh fans! Be discouraged with Fleury's play (though putting up 4 goals and losing is Edmonton's Modus Operandi these days) but be encouraged by the play of Miroslav Satan and Petr Sykora. The Pens put up 5 goals last night and none of them were scored by Crosby or Malkin. Satan is on fire right now (8 goals) but Sykora has been slow to the starting gate. Well, 2 goals last night plus some powerplay time encourages me. If you've got Sykora on your bench it might be a good time to start playing him.
- Shea...motherflippin... Weber... that is all. No. OK so did I think he'd have 7 goals at this point in the season? No, but he does and now you need to figure out what to do with him? Guys like Weber, Semin and Vanek are all performing above their lofty expectations. Is it time to consider selling high? No I don't think so, particularly with Weber and Semin. Weber could very well continue to be a strong contributor throughout the year. He has 7 goals, top amongst d-men, and is ranked second to only Chris Pronger in standard Yahoo leagues. I think he finishes the year in the top 15 amongst d-men and I don't think you'll get that kind of return on him. Same for Semin, the return won't be worth what you are giving up.
- LUONGO! 2 shutouts in a row. Luongo owners... exhale.
- Ryan Clowe... two goals and the shootout winner... told you to watch him preseason based on his strong postseason and told you to pick him up yesterday... just saying. Setoguchi had another great night as well with two assists and 4 SOG.
That's all for now. I should be back a little bit later on in the day with updates, news, musings, etc.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
News and Notes
SITE NEWS
For those of you coming here for the weekly two minute minor I have some bad news. Nick, our intrepid columnist, is out on assignment this week and will not be delivering a two minute minor for you avid trap-o-philes. The good news... he'll be back next week with a HUGE HUGE update. Trust me... it will be worth the wait.
BET UPDATE:
Last night, in what shall from this point forward be referred to as The Futility Bowl, the Tampa Bay Lightning met up with the Toronto Maple Leafs in Toronto and something resembling a hockey game broke out. The Lightning dominated the play for much of the game, that is until the third period when the Maple Leafs brought it hard. The Leafs and Lightning both play an "attack first" strategy so it was an entertaining game to watch but the Leafs were outmatched by the Lightning's ability to field NHL caliber players on more then one line. What's that? Yes... I watched a large portion of this game (What I didn't watch I missed because I was watching other games). That's how seriously I take my obligation to you people.
Some fantasy notes from the game:
-Mike Smith made 37 saves giving him .942 Sv% on a team that is just now hitting its stride. Thats pretty solid. If Tampa Bay can start winning Smith will really gain some value in fantasy leagues.
- Stamkos got his first point... on the powerplay no less. It wasn't MUCH of an assist but later on he very nearly scored his first goal on a nasty wraparound. For some odd reason Melrose is still only giving Stamkos about 13 minutes a night (can his defense possibly be that bad) but he's showing signs of being able to spin whats being handed to him into gold. If you aren't already watching Stamkos... its time to start.
- Lecavalier woke up last night. Both of his goals were gorgeous. I'd say that shoulder is at about 72%.
- Hey... so... uh... Mike Van Ryn... scored his second powerplay goal last night. Someone has to fill in for McCabe. I just assumed it would be Kaberle or Kubina but maybe its Mike. Van Ryn has 4 points in the last 4 games.
Some Other Notes:
- Good gutsy win for Calgary last night. Hard hitting game, hard fought win. Calgary has to win those games if they are going to be a contender this year.
- The Sharks are off to an unbelievable start but you want proof that they are for real? They held the Pittsburgh Penguins to 11 shots last night. Crosby had 1 shot. Malkin had 2. Scary right?
- Tim Thomas has two consecutive shutouts. NEVER BET AGAINST TIM THOMAS. Take that everyone that thought Manny Fernandez was going to unseat him this year.
- Did you listen to me about Jofrey Lupul? Of course you didn't and as a result you missed 2 goals. Yes it was Atlanta. Yes they are terrible but Philly took full advantage of it. Philly is now wide awake.
For those of you coming here for the weekly two minute minor I have some bad news. Nick, our intrepid columnist, is out on assignment this week and will not be delivering a two minute minor for you avid trap-o-philes. The good news... he'll be back next week with a HUGE HUGE update. Trust me... it will be worth the wait.
BET UPDATE:
Last night, in what shall from this point forward be referred to as The Futility Bowl, the Tampa Bay Lightning met up with the Toronto Maple Leafs in Toronto and something resembling a hockey game broke out. The Lightning dominated the play for much of the game, that is until the third period when the Maple Leafs brought it hard. The Leafs and Lightning both play an "attack first" strategy so it was an entertaining game to watch but the Leafs were outmatched by the Lightning's ability to field NHL caliber players on more then one line. What's that? Yes... I watched a large portion of this game (What I didn't watch I missed because I was watching other games). That's how seriously I take my obligation to you people.
Some fantasy notes from the game:
-Mike Smith made 37 saves giving him .942 Sv% on a team that is just now hitting its stride. Thats pretty solid. If Tampa Bay can start winning Smith will really gain some value in fantasy leagues.
- Stamkos got his first point... on the powerplay no less. It wasn't MUCH of an assist but later on he very nearly scored his first goal on a nasty wraparound. For some odd reason Melrose is still only giving Stamkos about 13 minutes a night (can his defense possibly be that bad) but he's showing signs of being able to spin whats being handed to him into gold. If you aren't already watching Stamkos... its time to start.
- Lecavalier woke up last night. Both of his goals were gorgeous. I'd say that shoulder is at about 72%.
- Hey... so... uh... Mike Van Ryn... scored his second powerplay goal last night. Someone has to fill in for McCabe. I just assumed it would be Kaberle or Kubina but maybe its Mike. Van Ryn has 4 points in the last 4 games.
Some Other Notes:
- Good gutsy win for Calgary last night. Hard hitting game, hard fought win. Calgary has to win those games if they are going to be a contender this year.
- The Sharks are off to an unbelievable start but you want proof that they are for real? They held the Pittsburgh Penguins to 11 shots last night. Crosby had 1 shot. Malkin had 2. Scary right?
- Tim Thomas has two consecutive shutouts. NEVER BET AGAINST TIM THOMAS. Take that everyone that thought Manny Fernandez was going to unseat him this year.
- Did you listen to me about Jofrey Lupul? Of course you didn't and as a result you missed 2 goals. Yes it was Atlanta. Yes they are terrible but Philly took full advantage of it. Philly is now wide awake.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
European Vacation Concludes
Rangers v. Tampa Bay Game 2
It should have never been this close. The Rangers absolutely dominated this game through two periods. After the second period shots were 33-9 in favor of the Rangers. The mind boggles.
- Once again, the Naslund, Drury, Gomez line looks very good both at even strength and on the powerplay. Gomez seems to have an extra step in his game and Naslund seems to "get" Gomez better then Jagr ever did. As a long time Devils fan the only other person I've ever seen have this kind of chemistry with Scott is Alexander Mogilny. That should have Rangers fans very excited.
- Redden showed some flashes of the guy he used to be today. 1 goal and 1 assist, plus a knack for pinching into center ice at the right time could lead to a very successful year for the derided defender. I'm still not sold on his defensive game, as I don't think the Rangers have been tested in that regard yet, but offensively he looks like he could be exceptional.
- The Rangers powerplay clicked today. Redden's goal came after 1:20 or so of consistent pressure by that line. They literally tired the penalty killers out to the point that Redden was able to walk in and blast it top shelf.
- Were you paying attention early in the second period? If you were you got a dazzling glimpse of what a Gomez, Zherdev and Naslund line would look like. I think the Rangers top line has good chemistry as is, but should a personnel shift occur, this line would kill.
- I'm being cautious on my Rangers predictions here. I think they are a very good team but I think Tampa might just be awful.
- Defensively speaking the Lightning are pretty abysmal. They are trying to force shots from the perimeter by collapsing around their goalie. That's all well and good (and is padding the save %'s of both Kolzig and Smith) when done properly. The Lightning are failing miserably at it. They are winning NONE of the races to the puck meaning that they will get absolutely deluged by shots and have virtually no time on attack. 33 shots to 9 through two periods is unacceptable.
- Tampa seemed to figure something out in the third, actually giving Lundqvist some work with their 10 shots. Maybe that something was "Give Stamkos the puck." If he had sunk that instead of banging it off the cross bar Tampa very well could have stolen this one. Whose fault is that? I've got to point at Lundqvist here. That Adam Hall goal in the first was disgusting.
- Carle led all Tampa skaters on Saturday in ice time with 29 minutes. I think Melrose saw what I saw in game 1 though as today he was shifted to the third defensive pairing and saw a decrease in his total ice time by 9 minutes.
- So who is it gonna be in Tampa? Kolzig? Smith? They both looked good, and neither one managed to get a W, so I think we may have our first goaltending controversy here. Our second of course was born out of today's other contest.
Ottawa v. Pittsburgh Game 2
Not a whole lot changed for Ottawa today. They still got most of their offense out of their star players. Their D was still mostly underwhelming and they still got to M.A. Fleury 3 times. What was different? Alex Auld baby.
- Daniel Alfredsson arrived today, getting two assists, one an absolute beauty for Heatley's second goal of the game. Speaking of Heater... he looks absolutely fantastic thus far.
- Vermette had the goal of the game, getting his own rebound off of Fleury's chest and then banging it home.
-The Sens D improved slightly, largely because there was less of it. Brian Lee and Cristoph Schubert saw their ice time shaved significantly. Filip Kuba on the other hand had yet another point, this time on the powerplay and another outstanding game, receiving the most ice time of any Senator. Of the two defenders I'm recommending from this game I think he is your best option if you had a lousy defender draft (or say drafted Sergei Gonchar, Sergei Zubov or Ryan Whitney).
- Now is probably the time to talk about M.A. Fleury. I've made no secret that I don't think the guy is an elite option this year, particularly considering the loss of Whitney and Gonchar. Today you saw why. He gives up a ton of rebounds and without seasoned defenders to cover him, guys like Vermette are going to walk in on him all game. I don't so much blame him for either of the Heatley goals, he's gonna score those every time, particularly when there is so much open real estate in his zone. The Pens have a lot of reshuffling to do before they are a team to be feared again.
- "You've failed me for the last time Miroslav." The panic has already begun in the quest to find Sid the Kid suitable linemates. Maybe they should hold a reality show. Call it "Center of Attention." Guests can compete to make Sid feel like he is the greatest player ever to play the game and to do and skate and shoot exactly how and when he tells them to. It would be a ratings smash and Sid is just whiny and unlikable enough for reality TV.
It took less then a game and a half for Sid to tire of Miroslav Satan and for him to be replaced with Tyler Kennedy. Don't go running to pick him up just yet though. Until Sykora returns expect to see Sid go throgh linemates like Darth Vader does Admirals. "Apology accepted Captain Satan."
-How about that Alex Auld? He played a little above his head today but it looks like he and Gerber are going to be battling it out all season. Auld has the early lead, carrying a shutout to the last two seconds of this game before giving one up on the man advantage, and will likely get the start the next time Ottawa laces them up on the 11th. Of course he may not want that honor as whomever gets it will be the the first goalie to be tested (after Vesa Toskala is mercilessly disembowled) by the 2008-2009 Red Wings. My advice... get a cold Alex. Twist an ankle or something, and then tell everyone how you could have done better than Gerber. There's no winning this one.
- The one bright spot for the Pens was the debut of Alex Goligoski. He looks a little suspect defensively but he absolutely blasted one past Gerber from the right circle with 2 seconds remaining. He's not the answer for the this term long term but could be a stop gap in the short term. As such he could be the same for you if you were unsatisfied with your draft crop of D-men. Keep an eye on him over the next week or so.
So that wraps up the "PRE" season. I intend to watch as many games as possible at the beginning of the year so I can give all of you an idea of what is going on. Requests? There are only 4 games opening night so I'm going to try to watch the Toronto v Detroit massacre and then grab some of Boston v Colorado before switching over to San Jose at Anaheim. I'm skipping Calgary at Vancouver but will grab as much of it as possible during commercial breaks.
It should have never been this close. The Rangers absolutely dominated this game through two periods. After the second period shots were 33-9 in favor of the Rangers. The mind boggles.
- Once again, the Naslund, Drury, Gomez line looks very good both at even strength and on the powerplay. Gomez seems to have an extra step in his game and Naslund seems to "get" Gomez better then Jagr ever did. As a long time Devils fan the only other person I've ever seen have this kind of chemistry with Scott is Alexander Mogilny. That should have Rangers fans very excited.
- Redden showed some flashes of the guy he used to be today. 1 goal and 1 assist, plus a knack for pinching into center ice at the right time could lead to a very successful year for the derided defender. I'm still not sold on his defensive game, as I don't think the Rangers have been tested in that regard yet, but offensively he looks like he could be exceptional.
- The Rangers powerplay clicked today. Redden's goal came after 1:20 or so of consistent pressure by that line. They literally tired the penalty killers out to the point that Redden was able to walk in and blast it top shelf.
- Were you paying attention early in the second period? If you were you got a dazzling glimpse of what a Gomez, Zherdev and Naslund line would look like. I think the Rangers top line has good chemistry as is, but should a personnel shift occur, this line would kill.
- I'm being cautious on my Rangers predictions here. I think they are a very good team but I think Tampa might just be awful.
- Defensively speaking the Lightning are pretty abysmal. They are trying to force shots from the perimeter by collapsing around their goalie. That's all well and good (and is padding the save %'s of both Kolzig and Smith) when done properly. The Lightning are failing miserably at it. They are winning NONE of the races to the puck meaning that they will get absolutely deluged by shots and have virtually no time on attack. 33 shots to 9 through two periods is unacceptable.
- Tampa seemed to figure something out in the third, actually giving Lundqvist some work with their 10 shots. Maybe that something was "Give Stamkos the puck." If he had sunk that instead of banging it off the cross bar Tampa very well could have stolen this one. Whose fault is that? I've got to point at Lundqvist here. That Adam Hall goal in the first was disgusting.
- Carle led all Tampa skaters on Saturday in ice time with 29 minutes. I think Melrose saw what I saw in game 1 though as today he was shifted to the third defensive pairing and saw a decrease in his total ice time by 9 minutes.
- So who is it gonna be in Tampa? Kolzig? Smith? They both looked good, and neither one managed to get a W, so I think we may have our first goaltending controversy here. Our second of course was born out of today's other contest.
Ottawa v. Pittsburgh Game 2
Not a whole lot changed for Ottawa today. They still got most of their offense out of their star players. Their D was still mostly underwhelming and they still got to M.A. Fleury 3 times. What was different? Alex Auld baby.
- Daniel Alfredsson arrived today, getting two assists, one an absolute beauty for Heatley's second goal of the game. Speaking of Heater... he looks absolutely fantastic thus far.
- Vermette had the goal of the game, getting his own rebound off of Fleury's chest and then banging it home.
-The Sens D improved slightly, largely because there was less of it. Brian Lee and Cristoph Schubert saw their ice time shaved significantly. Filip Kuba on the other hand had yet another point, this time on the powerplay and another outstanding game, receiving the most ice time of any Senator. Of the two defenders I'm recommending from this game I think he is your best option if you had a lousy defender draft (or say drafted Sergei Gonchar, Sergei Zubov or Ryan Whitney).
- Now is probably the time to talk about M.A. Fleury. I've made no secret that I don't think the guy is an elite option this year, particularly considering the loss of Whitney and Gonchar. Today you saw why. He gives up a ton of rebounds and without seasoned defenders to cover him, guys like Vermette are going to walk in on him all game. I don't so much blame him for either of the Heatley goals, he's gonna score those every time, particularly when there is so much open real estate in his zone. The Pens have a lot of reshuffling to do before they are a team to be feared again.
- "You've failed me for the last time Miroslav." The panic has already begun in the quest to find Sid the Kid suitable linemates. Maybe they should hold a reality show. Call it "Center of Attention." Guests can compete to make Sid feel like he is the greatest player ever to play the game and to do and skate and shoot exactly how and when he tells them to. It would be a ratings smash and Sid is just whiny and unlikable enough for reality TV.
It took less then a game and a half for Sid to tire of Miroslav Satan and for him to be replaced with Tyler Kennedy. Don't go running to pick him up just yet though. Until Sykora returns expect to see Sid go throgh linemates like Darth Vader does Admirals. "Apology accepted Captain Satan."
-How about that Alex Auld? He played a little above his head today but it looks like he and Gerber are going to be battling it out all season. Auld has the early lead, carrying a shutout to the last two seconds of this game before giving one up on the man advantage, and will likely get the start the next time Ottawa laces them up on the 11th. Of course he may not want that honor as whomever gets it will be the the first goalie to be tested (after Vesa Toskala is mercilessly disembowled) by the 2008-2009 Red Wings. My advice... get a cold Alex. Twist an ankle or something, and then tell everyone how you could have done better than Gerber. There's no winning this one.
- The one bright spot for the Pens was the debut of Alex Goligoski. He looks a little suspect defensively but he absolutely blasted one past Gerber from the right circle with 2 seconds remaining. He's not the answer for the this term long term but could be a stop gap in the short term. As such he could be the same for you if you were unsatisfied with your draft crop of D-men. Keep an eye on him over the next week or so.
So that wraps up the "PRE" season. I intend to watch as many games as possible at the beginning of the year so I can give all of you an idea of what is going on. Requests? There are only 4 games opening night so I'm going to try to watch the Toronto v Detroit massacre and then grab some of Boston v Colorado before switching over to San Jose at Anaheim. I'm skipping Calgary at Vancouver but will grab as much of it as possible during commercial breaks.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Feeling Praguey: News and Notes from The First Game of the 2008-2009 NHL season
It feels good to write that.
No I'm not in Prague (though that would be cool), I'm still sitting at my desk in the Chair of Woe, but I thought I would share my thoughts on the first game of the season:
- The best player in this game, for either team, was Tampa Bay Goaltender Mike Smith. He stood on his head through two periods to keep this thing close robbing Markus Naslund more than once. That said I still can't recommend that you waste a draft pick on him. Smith appears to be embroiled in the first goaltending controversy of the year as Olaf Kolzig will get the start tomorrow. An eye might want to be kept on the post game reports as Smith took a high shot to the left arm, his glove hand, near the end of the game and had trouble shaking it off.
- The Mullet is no more. A shave and a trim and Melrose looks positively believable in the coach role. Scissors do not a good coach make however. The one thing that was noticeably different about this Lightning team was their strategy on the penalty kill, collapsing around the forwards and allowing opponents to take the shot from the point and the perimeter unmolested. It was largely successful through two periods but was directly responsible for the game winning goal by Brandon Dubinsky. As Teams get their powerplays rolling into mid-season form Smith or whomever is in net is going to get absolutely decimated by point shots.
- I'm saying it right now... Stamkos needs more ice time. He saw only two minutes of ice time through the end of the first but was responsible for 2 of the Lightning's best scoring chances in the game. Barry has to get creative and find more ways to get this kid on the ice as he is already their third best player.
- Dubes! Don't get too excited yet. Dubinsky's goal was nice, and a sniper's shot but most players at the NHL level should have been able to score that goal with that much room and time. I like Dubes but he was invisible for most of the game. Give him time yet unless you are in a deep league.
- Zherdev was also mostly invisible.
- That Naslund, Gomez, Drury line looks really good. Naslund knows where to hang out for Gomer's passes and Drury is right there to try and pick up the garbage goals. If he hasn't been drafted yet I would suggest you grab Drury in your leagues as he is about to have RW eligibility, greatly increasing his value.
I'll be back with some thoughts on Ottawa v. Pittsburgh in a few.
Free Preview: My overwhelming thought through 2 and a half is that neither goalie is going to be good enough to handle their respective team's lack of D over the course of a full season.
No I'm not in Prague (though that would be cool), I'm still sitting at my desk in the Chair of Woe, but I thought I would share my thoughts on the first game of the season:
- The best player in this game, for either team, was Tampa Bay Goaltender Mike Smith. He stood on his head through two periods to keep this thing close robbing Markus Naslund more than once. That said I still can't recommend that you waste a draft pick on him. Smith appears to be embroiled in the first goaltending controversy of the year as Olaf Kolzig will get the start tomorrow. An eye might want to be kept on the post game reports as Smith took a high shot to the left arm, his glove hand, near the end of the game and had trouble shaking it off.
- The Mullet is no more. A shave and a trim and Melrose looks positively believable in the coach role. Scissors do not a good coach make however. The one thing that was noticeably different about this Lightning team was their strategy on the penalty kill, collapsing around the forwards and allowing opponents to take the shot from the point and the perimeter unmolested. It was largely successful through two periods but was directly responsible for the game winning goal by Brandon Dubinsky. As Teams get their powerplays rolling into mid-season form Smith or whomever is in net is going to get absolutely decimated by point shots.
- I'm saying it right now... Stamkos needs more ice time. He saw only two minutes of ice time through the end of the first but was responsible for 2 of the Lightning's best scoring chances in the game. Barry has to get creative and find more ways to get this kid on the ice as he is already their third best player.
- Dubes! Don't get too excited yet. Dubinsky's goal was nice, and a sniper's shot but most players at the NHL level should have been able to score that goal with that much room and time. I like Dubes but he was invisible for most of the game. Give him time yet unless you are in a deep league.
- Zherdev was also mostly invisible.
- That Naslund, Gomez, Drury line looks really good. Naslund knows where to hang out for Gomer's passes and Drury is right there to try and pick up the garbage goals. If he hasn't been drafted yet I would suggest you grab Drury in your leagues as he is about to have RW eligibility, greatly increasing his value.
I'll be back with some thoughts on Ottawa v. Pittsburgh in a few.
Free Preview: My overwhelming thought through 2 and a half is that neither goalie is going to be good enough to handle their respective team's lack of D over the course of a full season.
Friday, September 26, 2008
"So... Do you like American hot dogs?"
Ok... so...
As you know, or may not know if this is your first time here, and incidentally if it is hello and welcome...
Where was I?
Right! When last we left our blogger he was on his way to play at being a journalist at the Rangers v. Lightning Preseason game. It should be noted that I got there a half hour before the doors opened, no one believed me that I was "media" and even fewer people were impressed that I wrote for a blog. Undaunted I read a magazine in a fine restaurant, Roy Rogers, across the street and drank a beverage, diet coke, while I waited for the doors to open.
Eventually I got inside. So, I'm snapping pictures of Stamkos like a Japanese tourist at Disney World and writing things down on my notepad like "speedy" and "adequate puck control" with many exclamation points and little hearts when the people who will be sitting behind me for the evening arrive.
Because they are loud I quickly surmise that they are bankers (go figure that in the middle of one of the worst crises the industry has ever seen these guys have time for a preseason hockey game... but I digress) and that one of them is a female on exchange from Austria. Before you ask I have no idea if she was cute. I only turned around once, to tell the guy that Korpikoski scored the second goal (and that was only because I was tired of the endless Who scored that? Was it Prucha? Shanahan? Superman?) and she wasn't there at that particular moment.
ANYWAY... I guess about halfway through the game she gets a hot dog at which point the banker to my back and right says "So... do you like American hot dogs?" I shared in their uncomfortable silence (if you want to know what I was doing at that moment I was drawing little arrows puncturing Petr Nedved's skull in the hopes that Renny would realize the smoke and mirrors routine ol' Neddy has been putting on this preseason) for what seemed like forever. I could only pray that she hadn't yet gotten the subtleties of the language... and that was only the SECOND most ridiculous thing that guy said all night.
The first?
"The Lightning made the playoffs last year right?"
Is it any wonder that our economy is in trouble kids?
Anyway thoughts and observations from the Rangers v. Lightning preseason game:
The Rangers were rolling with mostly a B squad last night. The B squad, though they lost, still seemed pretty dominant through two periods. Lundqvist would have never given up 2 of the 3 goals the Lightning scored on Valiquette. The third was a FILTHY top shelf backhand by St. Louis.
The real standout of the B-squad for me was defenseman Corey Potter. The Rangers Blue line is crowded (Redden, Rozsival, Kalinin, Mara, Staal) and I would imagine that Girardi has the inside track on the sixth spot, but Potter looks NHL ready to me. He was rarely out of position last night, played the point well and has a good breakout pass. The one time he was pickpocketed, by St. Louis of all people, Perry got back and laid down to block the shot. He will be a good hockey player for this team some day.
Korpikoski scored a goal. It wasn't pretty and was largely the fault of Matt Carle (more on him in a moment) but a goal is a goal. It was really the one "great" thing he did all night. There were several times where he looked unsure of what to do with the puck or like he needed a map to get through the neutral zone. He's going to be good but he needs some more seasoning.
Rissmiller, on the other hand, continues to impress. He should be a fine addition to this team. He had an absolute laser of a pass to Fritsche (who also looked good) which resulted in the Rangers first goal.
Since Tampa was playing most of their A-team (minus the still recovering Lecavalier and still lazy Prospal) there was a lot more to take in.
At this point it seems like the second and third line will look something like this:
Artuykhin - Stamkos - Malone
Vrbata - Gratton - Someone (Bochenski spent most of the game there but was waived after the game... one assumes Jussi Jokinen?)
Lots of thoughts on this. Artuykhin and Malone are both very big boys and they look to be out there to sort of flank Stamkos. Its clear that if anyone wants to go anywhere near the young star they are going to take a hammering... except... well...
Ok so let me come right out and say it. I don't really like Artuykhin. Watching him play I can see what all the fuss is about. He's big, he can skate and he's got a quick release on his shot and decent enough hands. Those are all good qualities in a player. I know this. Its just his play style reminds me most of Nik Antropov and not in a good way. While I'm insulting the guy I think he hits like Marek Malik. He's a hugger and he takes a lot of dumb penalties because of it. Near the end of the game they tried Vrbata on Stamkos' right and I think that ultimately this would be a better fit. Let Malone and the D provide the protection for Stamkos. Guys are going to figure out that Artuykhin is all height and no muscle pretty quickly.
That said. Wow. Stamkos. The kid can absolutely fly. He doesn't lose the puck easily and, maybe the best thing I can say about him at this stage in his career, he doesn't stand out. He looks like he belongs there. He isn't as silky smooth as St. Louis, yet, but he's really really good. The Calder talk is absolutely warranted. Someone, my bet is Malone, is going to score 30 goals picking up his trash rebounds. The one real knock on the guy at this point is that I'm not sure I saw him win a faceoff all night, on a night when the Rangers top three centers weren't even dressed. Kinda disappointing, but he'll pick that up as they go along. It just means that in big time situations you're going to see a lot of Lecavalier and Gratton.
Vrbata is really really quick, but he'll be wasted on that third line. If he gets some time with Stamkos though... watch out.
Now on to the D. Meszaros looked good all night. Carle did not. I was keeping a tally and Carle was personally responsible for three breakaways and 1 goal. He also got absolutely undressed by Prucha in his own zone but that was more because Prucha put on a sick set of moves then anything else. Carle looked defenisively irresponsible and really didn't have much going offensively until...
Near the end of the game Carle and Meszaros played the point together on the powerplay, with Carle playing the role of pinching d-man and Meszy playing the quarterback. It seemed to work nicely so keep an eye on both of these guys in your draft. I fear for Carle's +/- though.
So those are my observations. Good game for both teams. I think Renny should be able to really narrow down his roster based on that one, and Lightning showed that they are ready to compete this year. One last thing:
Mullet-watch: Melrose appears to have trimmed the mullet considerably. So much for that warrior hair Barry!
As you know, or may not know if this is your first time here, and incidentally if it is hello and welcome...
Where was I?
Right! When last we left our blogger he was on his way to play at being a journalist at the Rangers v. Lightning Preseason game. It should be noted that I got there a half hour before the doors opened, no one believed me that I was "media" and even fewer people were impressed that I wrote for a blog. Undaunted I read a magazine in a fine restaurant, Roy Rogers, across the street and drank a beverage, diet coke, while I waited for the doors to open.
Eventually I got inside. So, I'm snapping pictures of Stamkos like a Japanese tourist at Disney World and writing things down on my notepad like "speedy" and "adequate puck control" with many exclamation points and little hearts when the people who will be sitting behind me for the evening arrive.
Because they are loud I quickly surmise that they are bankers (go figure that in the middle of one of the worst crises the industry has ever seen these guys have time for a preseason hockey game... but I digress) and that one of them is a female on exchange from Austria. Before you ask I have no idea if she was cute. I only turned around once, to tell the guy that Korpikoski scored the second goal (and that was only because I was tired of the endless Who scored that? Was it Prucha? Shanahan? Superman?) and she wasn't there at that particular moment.
ANYWAY... I guess about halfway through the game she gets a hot dog at which point the banker to my back and right says "So... do you like American hot dogs?" I shared in their uncomfortable silence (if you want to know what I was doing at that moment I was drawing little arrows puncturing Petr Nedved's skull in the hopes that Renny would realize the smoke and mirrors routine ol' Neddy has been putting on this preseason) for what seemed like forever. I could only pray that she hadn't yet gotten the subtleties of the language... and that was only the SECOND most ridiculous thing that guy said all night.
The first?
"The Lightning made the playoffs last year right?"
Is it any wonder that our economy is in trouble kids?
Anyway thoughts and observations from the Rangers v. Lightning preseason game:
The Rangers were rolling with mostly a B squad last night. The B squad, though they lost, still seemed pretty dominant through two periods. Lundqvist would have never given up 2 of the 3 goals the Lightning scored on Valiquette. The third was a FILTHY top shelf backhand by St. Louis.
The real standout of the B-squad for me was defenseman Corey Potter. The Rangers Blue line is crowded (Redden, Rozsival, Kalinin, Mara, Staal) and I would imagine that Girardi has the inside track on the sixth spot, but Potter looks NHL ready to me. He was rarely out of position last night, played the point well and has a good breakout pass. The one time he was pickpocketed, by St. Louis of all people, Perry got back and laid down to block the shot. He will be a good hockey player for this team some day.
Korpikoski scored a goal. It wasn't pretty and was largely the fault of Matt Carle (more on him in a moment) but a goal is a goal. It was really the one "great" thing he did all night. There were several times where he looked unsure of what to do with the puck or like he needed a map to get through the neutral zone. He's going to be good but he needs some more seasoning.
Rissmiller, on the other hand, continues to impress. He should be a fine addition to this team. He had an absolute laser of a pass to Fritsche (who also looked good) which resulted in the Rangers first goal.
Since Tampa was playing most of their A-team (minus the still recovering Lecavalier and still lazy Prospal) there was a lot more to take in.
At this point it seems like the second and third line will look something like this:
Artuykhin - Stamkos - Malone
Vrbata - Gratton - Someone (Bochenski spent most of the game there but was waived after the game... one assumes Jussi Jokinen?)
Lots of thoughts on this. Artuykhin and Malone are both very big boys and they look to be out there to sort of flank Stamkos. Its clear that if anyone wants to go anywhere near the young star they are going to take a hammering... except... well...
Ok so let me come right out and say it. I don't really like Artuykhin. Watching him play I can see what all the fuss is about. He's big, he can skate and he's got a quick release on his shot and decent enough hands. Those are all good qualities in a player. I know this. Its just his play style reminds me most of Nik Antropov and not in a good way. While I'm insulting the guy I think he hits like Marek Malik. He's a hugger and he takes a lot of dumb penalties because of it. Near the end of the game they tried Vrbata on Stamkos' right and I think that ultimately this would be a better fit. Let Malone and the D provide the protection for Stamkos. Guys are going to figure out that Artuykhin is all height and no muscle pretty quickly.
That said. Wow. Stamkos. The kid can absolutely fly. He doesn't lose the puck easily and, maybe the best thing I can say about him at this stage in his career, he doesn't stand out. He looks like he belongs there. He isn't as silky smooth as St. Louis, yet, but he's really really good. The Calder talk is absolutely warranted. Someone, my bet is Malone, is going to score 30 goals picking up his trash rebounds. The one real knock on the guy at this point is that I'm not sure I saw him win a faceoff all night, on a night when the Rangers top three centers weren't even dressed. Kinda disappointing, but he'll pick that up as they go along. It just means that in big time situations you're going to see a lot of Lecavalier and Gratton.
Vrbata is really really quick, but he'll be wasted on that third line. If he gets some time with Stamkos though... watch out.
Now on to the D. Meszaros looked good all night. Carle did not. I was keeping a tally and Carle was personally responsible for three breakaways and 1 goal. He also got absolutely undressed by Prucha in his own zone but that was more because Prucha put on a sick set of moves then anything else. Carle looked defenisively irresponsible and really didn't have much going offensively until...
Near the end of the game Carle and Meszaros played the point together on the powerplay, with Carle playing the role of pinching d-man and Meszy playing the quarterback. It seemed to work nicely so keep an eye on both of these guys in your draft. I fear for Carle's +/- though.
So those are my observations. Good game for both teams. I think Renny should be able to really narrow down his roster based on that one, and Lightning showed that they are ready to compete this year. One last thing:
Mullet-watch: Melrose appears to have trimmed the mullet considerably. So much for that warrior hair Barry!
Monday, September 1, 2008
Meszy in Tampa
So over the weekend the Tampa Bay Lightning signed Andrej Meszaros to a six year deal reportedly worth about 5 million per season. The signing came AFTER Tampa traded Ottawa Alexandre Picard and Filip Kuba for Meszaros on Friday. Earlier reports were MOSTLY correct in that Tampa had threatened to sign Meszaros to an offer sheet and had apparently gone as far as to attempt to reclaim one of their necessary draft picks from Pittsburgh before Ottawa agreed to come to the table and negotiate.
So... fantasy impact.
I find Tampa's lack of faith in Carle... disturbing. They are already facing serious salary cap trouble and paying $2,950,000 per year to Carle to run the powerplay. Now they've added an additional $5,000,000 for another puck moving defenseman. You can't get enough of those in today's NHL but I ask you , what would be better... Boyle at $6,600,000 per or Meszaros and Carle at 7,950,000 per? This year I think Boyle.
Meszaros is good, and he WILL be the powerplay guy in Tampa. However, Meszaros is NOT defensively responsible. His +34 rookie season came when his defensive partner was Zdeno Chara.
All of that said, Tampa now has three defensemen between the ages of 20 and 23 on their roster who are valued for their offensive game, Carle, Meszaros and Ty Wishart (the other young 1st round draft pick acquired in the Boyle deal with San Jose). But I have to wonder, with two 20 somethings making more then $2 million on their roster already is Tampa just acquiring the young guys that other NHL GM's regret overpaying for?
Complaints aside, Meszaros' value stays steady as a number 1 powerplay defenseman on a scary good powerplay. He will likely have more PIM with Tampa then he would have in Ottawa, unless "The Mullet" sheds that reputation from 13 years ago as a players coach. He should be a Plus but a minor one.
This is NO good for Carle though. I would still draft him, but much later. He'll see second unit time for sure but Meszaros' arrival jeopardizes his time with the first unit. PP units in Tampa probably now look like:
St. Louis
Lecavalier
Prospal
Malone
Meszaros
Stamkos
Vrbata
Jokinen the Lesser
Recchi
Carle
That's not an awful second unit but the first unit is going to get the majority of the ice time... obviously.
The other thing that this deal does is perhaps free up some ice for the aforementioned Wishart. Carle, Meszaros, O'Brien and Ranger will all definitely see time with the big club, but this move significantly effected Tampa's depth at the position. Expect Andrew Hutchinson, Matt Smaby and Ty Wishart to compete for those remaining two spots.
What about the players that went to Ottawa? Well Ottawa is now without a powerplay qb, but I don't think Picard or Kuba fit the bill. Expect that to go to Volchenkov or Schubert unless Brian Lee really stuns in camp.
This feels like a warmup move for Ottawa. They've got depth at D now they just need that one great defenseman and a goaltender... and a second line... and...
So... fantasy impact.
I find Tampa's lack of faith in Carle... disturbing. They are already facing serious salary cap trouble and paying $2,950,000 per year to Carle to run the powerplay. Now they've added an additional $5,000,000 for another puck moving defenseman. You can't get enough of those in today's NHL but I ask you , what would be better... Boyle at $6,600,000 per or Meszaros and Carle at 7,950,000 per? This year I think Boyle.
Meszaros is good, and he WILL be the powerplay guy in Tampa. However, Meszaros is NOT defensively responsible. His +34 rookie season came when his defensive partner was Zdeno Chara.
All of that said, Tampa now has three defensemen between the ages of 20 and 23 on their roster who are valued for their offensive game, Carle, Meszaros and Ty Wishart (the other young 1st round draft pick acquired in the Boyle deal with San Jose). But I have to wonder, with two 20 somethings making more then $2 million on their roster already is Tampa just acquiring the young guys that other NHL GM's regret overpaying for?
Complaints aside, Meszaros' value stays steady as a number 1 powerplay defenseman on a scary good powerplay. He will likely have more PIM with Tampa then he would have in Ottawa, unless "The Mullet" sheds that reputation from 13 years ago as a players coach. He should be a Plus but a minor one.
This is NO good for Carle though. I would still draft him, but much later. He'll see second unit time for sure but Meszaros' arrival jeopardizes his time with the first unit. PP units in Tampa probably now look like:
St. Louis
Lecavalier
Prospal
Malone
Meszaros
Stamkos
Vrbata
Jokinen the Lesser
Recchi
Carle
That's not an awful second unit but the first unit is going to get the majority of the ice time... obviously.
The other thing that this deal does is perhaps free up some ice for the aforementioned Wishart. Carle, Meszaros, O'Brien and Ranger will all definitely see time with the big club, but this move significantly effected Tampa's depth at the position. Expect Andrew Hutchinson, Matt Smaby and Ty Wishart to compete for those remaining two spots.
What about the players that went to Ottawa? Well Ottawa is now without a powerplay qb, but I don't think Picard or Kuba fit the bill. Expect that to go to Volchenkov or Schubert unless Brian Lee really stuns in camp.
This feels like a warmup move for Ottawa. They've got depth at D now they just need that one great defenseman and a goaltender... and a second line... and...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
TEAM PREVIEWS: THE TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Introduction:
Tampa Bay is good. It took me a long time and a lot of staring to come to that conclusion but there you have it. On paper they have two VERY good scoring lines, a third/checking line made up of some wily veterans and can comfortably put together a fourth line of kids and see what develops out of them.
The question with Tampa lies where it seemingly always does; in their own zone and particularly in net. Another question. Is Barry Melrose really capable of coaching a team of such notoriously strong personalities after years spent in the analyst chair at ESPN? Gone is the controversial and abrasive John Tortorella, who seemingly annoyed everyone during his stint with the Lightning (highlights here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ee6mT8y5C34). The Mullet will have his work cut out for him. He seems to have the right idea though if his powerplay thoughts are any indication http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj6wuWxGFB8
Key Departures:
Dan Boyle
Big, big loss here. Boyle is a powerplay specialist. He was particularly skilled at running THIS powerplay and knowing the tendencies of each of the personalities that made it work. With him gone someone else will have to step up. Both I, and perhaps more importantly Barry Melrose, believe it will be Matt Carle.
New Faces:
Radim Vrbata
Ryan Malone
Matt Carle
Mark Recchi
Gary Roberts
Vaclav Prospal
Olaf Kolzig
Steven Stamkos
I miss anyone? Well Adam Hall but fantasy wise he isn't relevant. Oh and if you want to be picky you could include the three players acquired from Dallas for Brad Richards but then I'd have to put Brad Richards above and I only did that with Hossa on the Thrashers to be cheeky.
Vrbata enters the fray in Tampa after his strongest, and really only, fantasy relevant season. With the Lightning trying to keep the scoring spread out by giving St. Louis his own line Vrbata is likely to see ice time with the Lecavalier/Prospal unit.
Malone comes in as the presumptive left winger for St. Louis, because of Lecavalier's history and chemistry with Prospal. He'll still see plenty of ice time and the second line spot is his to lose.
Carle, by Merlose's own admission, is Boyle's successor as QB of the powerplay. He's shown promise in this role, and is a former Hobey Baker winner, but will have to deliver his best play this season in order to keep it.
Recchi and Roberts are almost certainly not fantasy relevant. Well... Roberts for sure isn't. Recchi did show some promise in his stint with Atlanta last season, after Pittsburgh waived him. He scored 40 points in 58 games and even put up 19 of those on the powerplay. He won't get that kind of ice time here. He was signed to be a third line role player and a locker room presence.
After shining in his stint with Philly, Prospal returns to Tampa to, once again, set up Vincent Lecavalier. He's excelled in this role over the last few seasons. Without a big contract on the line this year though it is unclear whether his play will have the same urgency.
Kolzig too finds himself in the mentor role but this time to Karri Ramo and Mike Smith. Kolzig is an exremely good backup goalie and should be able to hold up well should he be called on to play for stretches if the youngsters slip up.
Stamkos is a question mark. Drafted first overall this season, the Lightning have indicated that they intend to bring him up this season. If so Stamkos could find himself centering a line of Ryan Malone and Martin St. Louis... or he could instead find himself between Jussi Jokinen and Evgeni Artyuken. Stamkos, as we will discuss below, is very good and worth keeping an eye.
The Offense:
Tampa Bay essentially signed a second and third line in the offseason with the money they freed up by trading Brad Richards and Dan Boyle. Well done. If things like chemistry and playing time didn't matter this team would be unstoppable. They do, however, and thats why they play the games. Nevertheless Tampa's offensive prospects look very bright.
You Want to Draft:
Vincent Lecavalier
Martin St. Louis
Vaclav Prospal
Ryan Malone
Radim Vrbata
Lecavalier is one of the most complete players in hockey... fantasy wise. He does everything except play D, which is why that minus 17 is going to hurt. Its sting is diluted by the fact that he is going to score close to 100 points, take over 300 shots, get you 80-90 PIM, unless he feels like being coached this year, and about 30 points on the powerplay (this year I expect more). Lecavalier is a no brainer in the first round.
FACT: Lecavalier has not scored less then 30 goals since 2001-2002 when he had 20. He and former coach John Tortorella had a public and vicious dislike for eachother. I expect him to be more motivated then ever under new coach Barry Melrose.
FACT 2: (We'll call this Vrbata's fact) In the Stanley Cup finals in 2004 Jarome Iginla and Vincent Lecavalier, did this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_c5fj0r3uk&feature=related, showing to a national audience what hockey is all about and exactly that the game means to those that play it.
The goals have dried up a bit for St. Louis since he and Vinny have been placed on seperate lines, but the assists continue to flow. With only one sub-70 point season in the last 5 St. Louis is one of the surest things in hockey. In that same stretch he has been as low as 61 points and as high as 102. If you believe, like I do, that he's probably an 80ish point player this year you can probably get him at a slight discount. Expect an improvement in plus/minus and powerplay points.
FACT: St. Louis is over a point a game lifetime in the playoffs, scoring 48 points in 45 career postseason contests.
Prospal is one of the world's streakiest players, but he will play with Lecavalier (they have had spectacular chemistry) and he will see powerplay time. Prospal was also pretty fantastic in his brief stint with Philadelphia last season, scoring 14 points in 18 regular season contests before notching another 14 points during their playoff run. Prospal will put up good numbers again this year and will be overlooked in many drafts. Don't make the same mistake.
FACT: Prospal is notoriously streaky. His 33 goals last season were his highest single season tally ever.
Malone and Vrbata are sort of the odd men out here. I expect that at least one of them will have a spectacular season with their new linemates. Vrbata stands a better chance of an explosion, the thought being that if Malone couldn't score 60 with Sidney Crosby who can he score 60 with. Vrbata is the presumptive first line RW, not because he's better then St. Louis but because Tampa spreads the scorers out. Should St. Louis be moved to the top line and these two are centered by ... say... Stamkos then that becomes fairly intriguing as well. Both of these players will be drafted. One will look like a genius move and one less so. If I were a betting man I'd put my money on Vrbata.
FACT: Even if Malone only gets you 50 points his 100 or so PIM might just make him worthwhile, particularly if he gets time on the first powerplay unit.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Steven Stamkos
Jeff Halpern had a magnificent debut with the Lightning, scoring 18 points in 20 games, mostly centering St. Louis. Unfortunately he will miss several months of this season after he ruptured his ACL in the 2008 World Championships while playing for Team USA. This leaves the door wide open for Steven Stamkos to make his debut with the Lightning
A lot will be expected of the 18 year old in his first professional season. He's had two VERY good years in the OHL, 92 points in 63 games and 105 points in 61 good to be exact. We still don't know what he's going to be capable of on the professional level. That said... he can do this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad4zGlYUy7Y.
FACT: He says he models his game after Alexander Ovechkin and scouts say he uses both his speed, which is blinding, and his body to get position on defenders... maybe you should just go ahead and draft this kid. Hell I might.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Matt Carle
I have to admit that when I first started preparing this post I wasn't sure whether to point you to Carle or Kuba or Ranger... but then I checked the numbers again. Carle may have had an off year but NONE of the defenseman on Tampa Bay were particularly effective on the powerplay. Boyle had the most powerplay points amongst defenseman by FAR and he only played in 37 games. That and Melrose's endorsement above give me confidence in Carle as your powerplay QB. This is a team that can be dominant on the man advantage. Carle should see a return to his 06-07 numbers. If he doesn't he will be replaced.
FACT: Matt Carle had 42 points, 26 of them on the powerplay, in his first full season with the San Jose Sharks in 06-07.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Paul Ranger
Filip Kuba
Shane O'Brien
I mention Ranger and Kuba because they both had 31 points last year. They do not score on the powerplay and were both minuses and not particularly big on garnering PIM. They aren't the most attractive of D-men... still 31 points is nothing to sneeze at.
O'Brien is here because he managed to get 151 PIM while still getting 21 points. If I can get my goons at D and I can also get points out of them I usually consider that a plus, so O'Brien is a pretty good option for you late in the draft if you are lacking both d-men and PIM but are otherwise comfortable with your offensive categories. And no we're not related. Hey Shane... say hi to Aunt Molly.
The Powerplay:
Lecavalier
St. Louis
Prospal
Malone
Carle
That is my assumption as to the makeup of the first unit, at least at the beginning of the year. Malone will stand in front of the net, presumably what he was signed to do, while Vinny and the Jets pass it around and/or give it to Carle for a hard shot from the point. Carle's presence SHOULD stabilize this unit and if the Mullet is to be believed they'll be shooting plenty.
You're going to see a lot of this. Malone stands in frotn while Prospal and St. Louis float around down low. Vinny will pinch in from the point and Prospal will feed Carle who will fake the shot and pass to Vinny for a rifle from the right circle.
The Goalie(s):
What a mess. But then it always is with this team. So Mike Smith might be good. He certainly seemed to be while he was in Dallas, but he pretty much got lit up in the 13 games he played for Tampa last season (putting up only 3 wins a 2.79 GAA and .893 SV% in that span).
Ramo's numbers weren't much better. He won 7 of 20 starts with 3.03 GAA and .899 SV%. Yuck right? I expect Tampa will let Ramo get some more seasoning and start the season with Smith and Kolzig as the goalies. Smith will have the starting gig provided he doesn't lose it. With expectations high for this team the pressure will be on.
FACT: Its tough to be a goalie. Mike Smith has one major injury in his career... he suffered a concussion off a 100 MPH slapshot to the head.
The Verdict:
While Tampa has the potential to be a powerhouse offensively it remains to be seen whether their defense and their goaltending will be aboard for the ride. Of the three teams in the Southeast whom I feel have the potential to make the postseason I think Tampa's grip on a playoff spot is the most tenuous. Draft Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Prospal without reservation. Carle, Vrbata, Malone and Stamkos all interest me to varying degrees as well.
Tampa Bay is good. It took me a long time and a lot of staring to come to that conclusion but there you have it. On paper they have two VERY good scoring lines, a third/checking line made up of some wily veterans and can comfortably put together a fourth line of kids and see what develops out of them.
The question with Tampa lies where it seemingly always does; in their own zone and particularly in net. Another question. Is Barry Melrose really capable of coaching a team of such notoriously strong personalities after years spent in the analyst chair at ESPN? Gone is the controversial and abrasive John Tortorella, who seemingly annoyed everyone during his stint with the Lightning (highlights here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ee6mT8y5C34). The Mullet will have his work cut out for him. He seems to have the right idea though if his powerplay thoughts are any indication http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj6wuWxGFB8
Key Departures:
Dan Boyle
Big, big loss here. Boyle is a powerplay specialist. He was particularly skilled at running THIS powerplay and knowing the tendencies of each of the personalities that made it work. With him gone someone else will have to step up. Both I, and perhaps more importantly Barry Melrose, believe it will be Matt Carle.
New Faces:
Radim Vrbata
Ryan Malone
Matt Carle
Mark Recchi
Gary Roberts
Vaclav Prospal
Olaf Kolzig
Steven Stamkos
I miss anyone? Well Adam Hall but fantasy wise he isn't relevant. Oh and if you want to be picky you could include the three players acquired from Dallas for Brad Richards but then I'd have to put Brad Richards above and I only did that with Hossa on the Thrashers to be cheeky.
Vrbata enters the fray in Tampa after his strongest, and really only, fantasy relevant season. With the Lightning trying to keep the scoring spread out by giving St. Louis his own line Vrbata is likely to see ice time with the Lecavalier/Prospal unit.
Malone comes in as the presumptive left winger for St. Louis, because of Lecavalier's history and chemistry with Prospal. He'll still see plenty of ice time and the second line spot is his to lose.
Carle, by Merlose's own admission, is Boyle's successor as QB of the powerplay. He's shown promise in this role, and is a former Hobey Baker winner, but will have to deliver his best play this season in order to keep it.
Recchi and Roberts are almost certainly not fantasy relevant. Well... Roberts for sure isn't. Recchi did show some promise in his stint with Atlanta last season, after Pittsburgh waived him. He scored 40 points in 58 games and even put up 19 of those on the powerplay. He won't get that kind of ice time here. He was signed to be a third line role player and a locker room presence.
After shining in his stint with Philly, Prospal returns to Tampa to, once again, set up Vincent Lecavalier. He's excelled in this role over the last few seasons. Without a big contract on the line this year though it is unclear whether his play will have the same urgency.
Kolzig too finds himself in the mentor role but this time to Karri Ramo and Mike Smith. Kolzig is an exremely good backup goalie and should be able to hold up well should he be called on to play for stretches if the youngsters slip up.
Stamkos is a question mark. Drafted first overall this season, the Lightning have indicated that they intend to bring him up this season. If so Stamkos could find himself centering a line of Ryan Malone and Martin St. Louis... or he could instead find himself between Jussi Jokinen and Evgeni Artyuken. Stamkos, as we will discuss below, is very good and worth keeping an eye.
The Offense:
Tampa Bay essentially signed a second and third line in the offseason with the money they freed up by trading Brad Richards and Dan Boyle. Well done. If things like chemistry and playing time didn't matter this team would be unstoppable. They do, however, and thats why they play the games. Nevertheless Tampa's offensive prospects look very bright.
You Want to Draft:
Vincent Lecavalier
Martin St. Louis
Vaclav Prospal
Ryan Malone
Radim Vrbata
Lecavalier is one of the most complete players in hockey... fantasy wise. He does everything except play D, which is why that minus 17 is going to hurt. Its sting is diluted by the fact that he is going to score close to 100 points, take over 300 shots, get you 80-90 PIM, unless he feels like being coached this year, and about 30 points on the powerplay (this year I expect more). Lecavalier is a no brainer in the first round.
FACT: Lecavalier has not scored less then 30 goals since 2001-2002 when he had 20. He and former coach John Tortorella had a public and vicious dislike for eachother. I expect him to be more motivated then ever under new coach Barry Melrose.
FACT 2: (We'll call this Vrbata's fact) In the Stanley Cup finals in 2004 Jarome Iginla and Vincent Lecavalier, did this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_c5fj0r3uk&feature=related, showing to a national audience what hockey is all about and exactly that the game means to those that play it.
The goals have dried up a bit for St. Louis since he and Vinny have been placed on seperate lines, but the assists continue to flow. With only one sub-70 point season in the last 5 St. Louis is one of the surest things in hockey. In that same stretch he has been as low as 61 points and as high as 102. If you believe, like I do, that he's probably an 80ish point player this year you can probably get him at a slight discount. Expect an improvement in plus/minus and powerplay points.
FACT: St. Louis is over a point a game lifetime in the playoffs, scoring 48 points in 45 career postseason contests.
Prospal is one of the world's streakiest players, but he will play with Lecavalier (they have had spectacular chemistry) and he will see powerplay time. Prospal was also pretty fantastic in his brief stint with Philadelphia last season, scoring 14 points in 18 regular season contests before notching another 14 points during their playoff run. Prospal will put up good numbers again this year and will be overlooked in many drafts. Don't make the same mistake.
FACT: Prospal is notoriously streaky. His 33 goals last season were his highest single season tally ever.
Malone and Vrbata are sort of the odd men out here. I expect that at least one of them will have a spectacular season with their new linemates. Vrbata stands a better chance of an explosion, the thought being that if Malone couldn't score 60 with Sidney Crosby who can he score 60 with. Vrbata is the presumptive first line RW, not because he's better then St. Louis but because Tampa spreads the scorers out. Should St. Louis be moved to the top line and these two are centered by ... say... Stamkos then that becomes fairly intriguing as well. Both of these players will be drafted. One will look like a genius move and one less so. If I were a betting man I'd put my money on Vrbata.
FACT: Even if Malone only gets you 50 points his 100 or so PIM might just make him worthwhile, particularly if he gets time on the first powerplay unit.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Steven Stamkos
Jeff Halpern had a magnificent debut with the Lightning, scoring 18 points in 20 games, mostly centering St. Louis. Unfortunately he will miss several months of this season after he ruptured his ACL in the 2008 World Championships while playing for Team USA. This leaves the door wide open for Steven Stamkos to make his debut with the Lightning
A lot will be expected of the 18 year old in his first professional season. He's had two VERY good years in the OHL, 92 points in 63 games and 105 points in 61 good to be exact. We still don't know what he's going to be capable of on the professional level. That said... he can do this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad4zGlYUy7Y.
FACT: He says he models his game after Alexander Ovechkin and scouts say he uses both his speed, which is blinding, and his body to get position on defenders... maybe you should just go ahead and draft this kid. Hell I might.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Matt Carle
I have to admit that when I first started preparing this post I wasn't sure whether to point you to Carle or Kuba or Ranger... but then I checked the numbers again. Carle may have had an off year but NONE of the defenseman on Tampa Bay were particularly effective on the powerplay. Boyle had the most powerplay points amongst defenseman by FAR and he only played in 37 games. That and Melrose's endorsement above give me confidence in Carle as your powerplay QB. This is a team that can be dominant on the man advantage. Carle should see a return to his 06-07 numbers. If he doesn't he will be replaced.
FACT: Matt Carle had 42 points, 26 of them on the powerplay, in his first full season with the San Jose Sharks in 06-07.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Paul Ranger
Filip Kuba
Shane O'Brien
I mention Ranger and Kuba because they both had 31 points last year. They do not score on the powerplay and were both minuses and not particularly big on garnering PIM. They aren't the most attractive of D-men... still 31 points is nothing to sneeze at.
O'Brien is here because he managed to get 151 PIM while still getting 21 points. If I can get my goons at D and I can also get points out of them I usually consider that a plus, so O'Brien is a pretty good option for you late in the draft if you are lacking both d-men and PIM but are otherwise comfortable with your offensive categories. And no we're not related. Hey Shane... say hi to Aunt Molly.
The Powerplay:
Lecavalier
St. Louis
Prospal
Malone
Carle
That is my assumption as to the makeup of the first unit, at least at the beginning of the year. Malone will stand in front of the net, presumably what he was signed to do, while Vinny and the Jets pass it around and/or give it to Carle for a hard shot from the point. Carle's presence SHOULD stabilize this unit and if the Mullet is to be believed they'll be shooting plenty.
You're going to see a lot of this. Malone stands in frotn while Prospal and St. Louis float around down low. Vinny will pinch in from the point and Prospal will feed Carle who will fake the shot and pass to Vinny for a rifle from the right circle.
The Goalie(s):
What a mess. But then it always is with this team. So Mike Smith might be good. He certainly seemed to be while he was in Dallas, but he pretty much got lit up in the 13 games he played for Tampa last season (putting up only 3 wins a 2.79 GAA and .893 SV% in that span).
Ramo's numbers weren't much better. He won 7 of 20 starts with 3.03 GAA and .899 SV%. Yuck right? I expect Tampa will let Ramo get some more seasoning and start the season with Smith and Kolzig as the goalies. Smith will have the starting gig provided he doesn't lose it. With expectations high for this team the pressure will be on.
FACT: Its tough to be a goalie. Mike Smith has one major injury in his career... he suffered a concussion off a 100 MPH slapshot to the head.
The Verdict:
While Tampa has the potential to be a powerhouse offensively it remains to be seen whether their defense and their goaltending will be aboard for the ride. Of the three teams in the Southeast whom I feel have the potential to make the postseason I think Tampa's grip on a playoff spot is the most tenuous. Draft Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Prospal without reservation. Carle, Vrbata, Malone and Stamkos all interest me to varying degrees as well.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Mullet Over
Tampa Bay Lightning
I'm going to skip straight to what Tampa added this offseason.
Ryan Malone: 27 goals 24 assists 51 points +14 103 PIM 16 PPP 159 SOG
Radim Vrbata: 27 goals 29 assists 56 points +6 14 PIM 13 PPP 246 SOG
Vaclav Prospal: 33 goals 38 assists 71 points even 45 PIM 19 PPP 215 SOG
Those are the big three. They lost Dan Boyle in a trade to San Jose, but got back Matt Carle, who laid a goose egg on a talented San Jose team last year, but finds himself in a much more wide open system here in Tampa. The former Hobey Baker Award winner is young and only one season removed from a 42 point season. When deciding which Tampa defenseman is going to get the powerplay time keep in mind Paul Ranger and Filip Kuba as well.
Prospal interests me the most of Tampa's foward aquisitions. Why? Because its almost certain that Lecavalier and/or St. Louis asked for his return. 57 of Prospal's points were scored in his 62 games with the Lightning last year. He's got chemistry with these guys. This year Prospal is a slightly under point a game winger. Believe it.
I would say Vrbata's point totals go up. Malone takes the hit for this being an incredibly crowded team and Recchi and Roberts bring experience to the dressing room but not much else to your fantasy squad.
Keep this in mind. Tampa was a bad team last year, and for most of that year they had Dan Boyle and Brad Richards. Even if you believe that all of these additions make up for those losses check out this stat line:
13 games started, 3 won, 10 lost. 2.79 GAA and .893 Sv%.
Those are Mike Smith's numbers as a starting goaltender for Tampa Bay at the end of last season. Despite the addition of Olaf Kolzig, Smith is the presumptive number 1 goaltender. The problems here run deep. Ask yourself, does Barry Melrose fix these, or make them worse.
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