The Hockey News broke the story late last night that Andrej Meszaros, Ottawa's 22 year old defenseman, has possibly been signed to an offer sheet by another NHL team. The identity of the team and the details of the offer sheet are being kept quiet but it is looking like its a 3 year deal worth 5 million per season. If you want speculation on the team any number of websites will give you their guesses. The popular opinion seems to be New Jersey, Columbus, Atlanta or Vancouver. I don't think any of those teams make sense (much as I'd want him as a Devils fan) for various reasons that I won't get into. For now I want to focus on what this means for Ottawa.
Meszaros was a first round pick for Ottawa, drafted 23rd overall in 2004, and was almost certainly a large part of the reason Ottawa has been allowing themselves to shed offensive defensemen like prom dresses. In 2006-2007 this team had Tom Preissing, Joe Corvo, Wade Redden AND Meszaros. That is a team that understood the value of transition, puck-moving defensemen. When the season starts this year it appears that all of those defensemen will be gone.
I don't blame Meszaros for abandoning ship particularly after this quote from Bryan Murray, "I think Mez is a potentially good young defenseman who had a bit of an off-year this past year, and we've asked their camp to entertain that in what we're trying to do with him." OK. Meszaros is 22. Can you tell me how many other 22 year old defensemen there are in the league that already have three 30+ point campaigns under their belt, no less 30+ point campaigns where they were competing with Chara, Redden, Pressing and Corvo for ice time? Yea I didn't think you could. That line reeks of damage control.
Someone will still be running the powerplay with the Sens All-Star line of Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson. If Meszaros is really gone I would expect the Senators to give looks to Cristoph Schubert (8 goals and 16 assists last season) Anton Volchenkov (former 21st overall pick, 1 goal and 14 assists last season) and Brian Lee (the 9th overall pick from 05 who hasn't shown a whole lot of shake and bake in the minors but who is highly regarded as a defensive prospect). One of those will be a nice sleeper because, whatever else this team is going to be it should still be a good powerplay team.
I'll keep you informed as this story develops.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
TEAM PREVIEWS: THE DETROIT RED WINGS
Introduction:
Back to the Central Division. The defending Stanley Cup Champions continued to make the rest of the league look like Chump-ions when they signed Marian Hossa in the off-season. Minus some age issues in net this is a really solid hockey team. They have a depth issue in that they have too many talented forwards and defensemen, and backup goalies, to give ice time too. Most GM's would kill for Detroit's roster, and at the end of the season it could be this roster that raises Lord Stanley.
Key Departures:
None
New Faces:
Marian Hossa
Somehow the save Osgood made on Hossa in the final second of the Stanley Cup playoffs (here, at 1:2o http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTmtStd8SWg&feature=related) didn't win him the Conn Smythe trophy. Hossa decided it also wouldn't haunt him for the rest of his life. Rather than taking the money and running this summer (reportedly turning down down a big money 7 year deal with the Oilers) Hossa decided to instead follow another age old cliche... If you can't beat them join them. Hossa, the most sought after free agent this summer, will be a sparkling addition to this team.
The Offense:
You want to Draft:
Pavel Datsyuk
Henrik Zetterberg
Marian Hossa
Everything went up for Pavel Datsyuk last season. His powerplay time, his shots, his goals, his assists, his +/-, even his PIM (don't get excited he still only had 41). He's an elite center, particularly if he continues to shoot at the pace he did last season, and you should consider him late in the second round or early in the third. He has a legitimate shot at repeating or improving upon his point totals from last year (97).
FACT: Over the course of his 6 year career Datsyuk has only finished one season with a negative in the +/- category (-2) and is +125 lifetime.
27 points in the playoffs is pretty good. So is 92 points in only 75 games... I mean I guess its fine. Conn Smythe Trophy... yea all right but where's your Visa Check Card? Zetterberg hit every bit of his potential last season, scoring 43 goals, taking 358 shots and being a force on both ends of the ice. This is a contract year for Henrik, expect more of the same from the talented Swede. 100 points is more than possible, particularly with how dominant I expect Detroit's powerplay is about to become.
FACT: How good are Detroit's scouts? They drafted Zetterberg in the 7th round!!!!!!!! A potential 100 point scorer! Its not even fair.
Hossa had an off year for Marian Hossa, scoring only 66 points in 72 games. That's an off year. Think about that. Finding himself on the most talented team he's played on (yes I'm including his ten game stint with Pittsburgh last year) Hossa shouldn't have to worry about point totals as much this year. Expect a rebound to about a point a game, his historical pace, or a little better for Marian this year. If the Red Wings take the unlikely step of making an all star line, then that prediciton goes up to about 95 points.
FACT: Hossa met his critics head on in the playoffs. Often criticized for disappearing in the postseason, Hossa scored 12 goals and added 14 assists for a 26 point playoff performance, at times looking like the best player on the Pittsburgh roster.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Tomas Holmstrom
Valtteri Filppula
Daniel Cleary
Johan Franzen
Holmstrom was on his way to a big season last year before going down to injury. He's a pest, and one who's usefulness may have run its course with the arrival of Hossa. Holmstrom will still see powerplay time but he becomes less of a necessity then before. He'll still have somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 points but decreased ice time will lead to decreased shots, and decreased usefulness.
FACT: Holmstrom has never scored more then 59 points and despite his physical play doesn't get a lot of Penalty Minutes.
Filppula is another one of the highly regarded Detroit prospects. You know, a future two-way center or somesuch. Pay him no mind (snicker). I think that given the team's depth Filppula will continue to be a role player for at least another season, scoring about 40 points. Take note of him though.
FACT: Detroit thinks highly of him. They signed him to a 5 year, 15 million dollar deal in the offseason.
Cleary had a promising season last year, scoring 42 points in 63 games seemed to signal the 13th overall pick in 1997's arrival. Alas Hossa's arrival puts him third on the depth chart at his position. He is looking more and more like the odd man out on this Detroit team.
FACT: Cleary's 42 points last season was his best output for a single season. I think thats your absolute ceiling for him this season.
Nope... I'm not buying the hype on Franzen. Yes I realize that he had all of 13 points before the all star break and had a stunning 25 points after. Yes I know that he had 13 goals and 18 points in only 16 playoff games. But here's the facts. Franzen's "stunning" performance at the end of the season came upon his promotion to the Datsyuk Zetterberg line and the first powerplay unit after Holmstrom was injured. Hossa's arrival will limit both of those. Of Franzen's 13 goals (a Detroit playoff record he now shares with Zetterberg) 9 of them came off a lame duck Colorado Avalanche team. The guy pulls a Claude Lemieux postseason, from nowhere and all of a sudden he's the second coming? I don't think so. Watch for streaks, draft him if you must, but expect no more then high 40's low 50's.
FACT: Franzen, Zetterberg and Datsyuk were all discovered by the same scout, Håkan Andersson.
The Defense:
The talent! Brad Stuart is the fourth defenseman on this team.
You want to Draft:
Nicklas Lidstrom
Brian Rafalski
Niklas Kronwall
What else needs be said about Lidstrom. Another year, another Norris, another time he should be the first defenseman off the boards in your fantasy draft.
FACT: Nicklas Lidstrom has won the Norris trophy six times and was the first European player to ever receive the award.
Brian Rafalski stepped in and did exactly what he's been doing for several years now, except with more goals, less assists and a higher plus/minus. He is a fine option as your number 1 or 2 defenseman as he gets plenty of points, takes enough shots and sees plenty of powerplay time.
FACT: Brian Rafalski was, in 1999, named the best hockey player not playing in the NHL. He was signed by the New Jersey Devils shortly thereafter.
Kronwall has been a breakout candidate for years now. Last year he finally broke, scoring 35 points in 65 games while being a +25. Look for Kronwall to repeat or improve that performance this year. He is best suited as your third or fourth defenseman but only because he doesn't get the powerplay time you need for a second defenseman.
FACT: Kronwall led all Red Wings with 15 assists in the postseason and all Red Wings defensemen with 15 points.
The Powerplay:
Pavel Datsyuk
Henrik Zetterberg
Marian Hossa
Brian Rafalski
Nicklas Lidstrom
Watch out Western Conference. They're coming for you.
The Goalie(s):
Osgood had a heck of a season, and postseason, for the Red Wings last year. 40 games started and 27 wins. Osgood put up the best GAA of his career (at 2.09) and second best SV% (.914). I would expect both of those numbers to go up as Osgood gets more starts this season, but not by much. Detroit's defense is very very good and Osgood, if last year is any indication, is more than adequate.
FACT: Osgood's playoff numbers: 14 wins, 1.55 GAA and .930 SV.% Damn! Dominator who?
Should Osgood falter, Ty Conklin, fresh off of keeping the wheels on Pittsburgh's season when Fleury went down, will be there to pick up the slack. Conklin put up very good numbers on a defensively inferior Pittsburgh team, winning 18 of 30 starts while posting a 2.51 GAA and .923 SV%. This is one backup I wouldn't hesitate to grab if Osgood goes down. Regardless of injury he'll probably see at least 20 starts this season.
FACT: Conklin's one year contract likely means the delay of the Jimmy Howard era for at least another year. Howard, who had a very accomplished college career with the University of Maine, will see at least one more year of seasoning in the AHL before becoming Osgood's backup.
Back to the Central Division. The defending Stanley Cup Champions continued to make the rest of the league look like Chump-ions when they signed Marian Hossa in the off-season. Minus some age issues in net this is a really solid hockey team. They have a depth issue in that they have too many talented forwards and defensemen, and backup goalies, to give ice time too. Most GM's would kill for Detroit's roster, and at the end of the season it could be this roster that raises Lord Stanley.
Key Departures:
None
New Faces:
Marian Hossa
Somehow the save Osgood made on Hossa in the final second of the Stanley Cup playoffs (here, at 1:2o http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTmtStd8SWg&feature=related) didn't win him the Conn Smythe trophy. Hossa decided it also wouldn't haunt him for the rest of his life. Rather than taking the money and running this summer (reportedly turning down down a big money 7 year deal with the Oilers) Hossa decided to instead follow another age old cliche... If you can't beat them join them. Hossa, the most sought after free agent this summer, will be a sparkling addition to this team.
The Offense:
You want to Draft:
Pavel Datsyuk
Henrik Zetterberg
Marian Hossa
Everything went up for Pavel Datsyuk last season. His powerplay time, his shots, his goals, his assists, his +/-, even his PIM (don't get excited he still only had 41). He's an elite center, particularly if he continues to shoot at the pace he did last season, and you should consider him late in the second round or early in the third. He has a legitimate shot at repeating or improving upon his point totals from last year (97).
FACT: Over the course of his 6 year career Datsyuk has only finished one season with a negative in the +/- category (-2) and is +125 lifetime.
27 points in the playoffs is pretty good. So is 92 points in only 75 games... I mean I guess its fine. Conn Smythe Trophy... yea all right but where's your Visa Check Card? Zetterberg hit every bit of his potential last season, scoring 43 goals, taking 358 shots and being a force on both ends of the ice. This is a contract year for Henrik, expect more of the same from the talented Swede. 100 points is more than possible, particularly with how dominant I expect Detroit's powerplay is about to become.
FACT: How good are Detroit's scouts? They drafted Zetterberg in the 7th round!!!!!!!! A potential 100 point scorer! Its not even fair.
Hossa had an off year for Marian Hossa, scoring only 66 points in 72 games. That's an off year. Think about that. Finding himself on the most talented team he's played on (yes I'm including his ten game stint with Pittsburgh last year) Hossa shouldn't have to worry about point totals as much this year. Expect a rebound to about a point a game, his historical pace, or a little better for Marian this year. If the Red Wings take the unlikely step of making an all star line, then that prediciton goes up to about 95 points.
FACT: Hossa met his critics head on in the playoffs. Often criticized for disappearing in the postseason, Hossa scored 12 goals and added 14 assists for a 26 point playoff performance, at times looking like the best player on the Pittsburgh roster.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Tomas Holmstrom
Valtteri Filppula
Daniel Cleary
Johan Franzen
Holmstrom was on his way to a big season last year before going down to injury. He's a pest, and one who's usefulness may have run its course with the arrival of Hossa. Holmstrom will still see powerplay time but he becomes less of a necessity then before. He'll still have somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 points but decreased ice time will lead to decreased shots, and decreased usefulness.
FACT: Holmstrom has never scored more then 59 points and despite his physical play doesn't get a lot of Penalty Minutes.
Filppula is another one of the highly regarded Detroit prospects. You know, a future two-way center or somesuch. Pay him no mind (snicker). I think that given the team's depth Filppula will continue to be a role player for at least another season, scoring about 40 points. Take note of him though.
FACT: Detroit thinks highly of him. They signed him to a 5 year, 15 million dollar deal in the offseason.
Cleary had a promising season last year, scoring 42 points in 63 games seemed to signal the 13th overall pick in 1997's arrival. Alas Hossa's arrival puts him third on the depth chart at his position. He is looking more and more like the odd man out on this Detroit team.
FACT: Cleary's 42 points last season was his best output for a single season. I think thats your absolute ceiling for him this season.
Nope... I'm not buying the hype on Franzen. Yes I realize that he had all of 13 points before the all star break and had a stunning 25 points after. Yes I know that he had 13 goals and 18 points in only 16 playoff games. But here's the facts. Franzen's "stunning" performance at the end of the season came upon his promotion to the Datsyuk Zetterberg line and the first powerplay unit after Holmstrom was injured. Hossa's arrival will limit both of those. Of Franzen's 13 goals (a Detroit playoff record he now shares with Zetterberg) 9 of them came off a lame duck Colorado Avalanche team. The guy pulls a Claude Lemieux postseason, from nowhere and all of a sudden he's the second coming? I don't think so. Watch for streaks, draft him if you must, but expect no more then high 40's low 50's.
FACT: Franzen, Zetterberg and Datsyuk were all discovered by the same scout, Håkan Andersson.
The Defense:
The talent! Brad Stuart is the fourth defenseman on this team.
You want to Draft:
Nicklas Lidstrom
Brian Rafalski
Niklas Kronwall
What else needs be said about Lidstrom. Another year, another Norris, another time he should be the first defenseman off the boards in your fantasy draft.
FACT: Nicklas Lidstrom has won the Norris trophy six times and was the first European player to ever receive the award.
Brian Rafalski stepped in and did exactly what he's been doing for several years now, except with more goals, less assists and a higher plus/minus. He is a fine option as your number 1 or 2 defenseman as he gets plenty of points, takes enough shots and sees plenty of powerplay time.
FACT: Brian Rafalski was, in 1999, named the best hockey player not playing in the NHL. He was signed by the New Jersey Devils shortly thereafter.
Kronwall has been a breakout candidate for years now. Last year he finally broke, scoring 35 points in 65 games while being a +25. Look for Kronwall to repeat or improve that performance this year. He is best suited as your third or fourth defenseman but only because he doesn't get the powerplay time you need for a second defenseman.
FACT: Kronwall led all Red Wings with 15 assists in the postseason and all Red Wings defensemen with 15 points.
The Powerplay:
Pavel Datsyuk
Henrik Zetterberg
Marian Hossa
Brian Rafalski
Nicklas Lidstrom
Watch out Western Conference. They're coming for you.
The Goalie(s):
Osgood had a heck of a season, and postseason, for the Red Wings last year. 40 games started and 27 wins. Osgood put up the best GAA of his career (at 2.09) and second best SV% (.914). I would expect both of those numbers to go up as Osgood gets more starts this season, but not by much. Detroit's defense is very very good and Osgood, if last year is any indication, is more than adequate.
FACT: Osgood's playoff numbers: 14 wins, 1.55 GAA and .930 SV.% Damn! Dominator who?
Should Osgood falter, Ty Conklin, fresh off of keeping the wheels on Pittsburgh's season when Fleury went down, will be there to pick up the slack. Conklin put up very good numbers on a defensively inferior Pittsburgh team, winning 18 of 30 starts while posting a 2.51 GAA and .923 SV%. This is one backup I wouldn't hesitate to grab if Osgood goes down. Regardless of injury he'll probably see at least 20 starts this season.
FACT: Conklin's one year contract likely means the delay of the Jimmy Howard era for at least another year. Howard, who had a very accomplished college career with the University of Maine, will see at least one more year of seasoning in the AHL before becoming Osgood's backup.
The Verdict:
Division? Conference? President's Trophy? Stanley Cup? Dynasty? They are all in reach for this talented squad.
TEAM PREVIEWS: COLORADO AVALANCHE
Introduction:
So with Joe Sakic back I took a look at Colorado's roster again. And at first I was wondering why everyone is so down on this team. They are two scoring lines deep. They picked up a more than adequate checker in Darcy Tucker. They held onto John Michael Liles after a subpar season expecting, I think rightly, that he'll rebound. Salei, Foote and Leopold are all fine defenders... and then I see it. Right. Raycroft and Budaj in net. Yeesh...that could be a problem.
I think the West is too good for Colorado to be a playoff team. I actually think that Edmonton may be a better team, but they will still be fun to watch.
Key Departures:
Jose Theodore
Peter Forsberg?
Theodore had something of a career resurgence last year splitting time with Budaj. The only thing he split this offseason was town. Theodore wasn't any kind of long term answer for this team but his departure does hurt their chances this season.
Forsberg, the Racer X of hockey at this point, was barely there to begin with last season, and may be gone again. There are rumors swirling around this week of another comeback attempt. Personally I'd like Foppa to hang up the skates. I love the man to death. Hell my last girlfriend was from Denver originally. For Christmas I got her, amongst other girlie things, a Blue Forsberg Nordiques jersey because she was getting into hockey and I thought the fleur de lis would appeal to her international sensibilities. But back to Peter. I think he's one of the better hockey players I have ever seen ... when he was healthy and in his prime. That time has long since passed for Forsberg, and I personally would like to see one of my hockey heroes enjoy the rest of his life with ankles that still work and without having to suffer on and off the ice.
FACT: I want to remember Peter like this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYsLM06hRuI The goal about 1:55 in, where he carries it around the entire zone before popping it top shelf is the stuff of legend. Do you see how many goalies (good ones like Kipper, Nabakov, Brodeur, Richter, Lundqvist, Osgood and Kolzig in their primes) he makes look stupid in that video? Do you see how he can't be knocked off the puck? That is pure and simple greatness.
New Faces:
Andrew Raycroft
Darcy Tucker
The reclamation project of the year has got to be Andrew Raycroft. Raycroft is the owner of one really good season of statistics, 1 mediocre season in which Mats Sundin won 37 games for him, and two really really god awful seasons. Raycroft will be, in theory, splitting time with Budaj behind what could be the best team he's played for since his Calder season in 03-04. It will be interesting to watch.
Tucker is an interesting addition. He's had a surprising number of offensively good seasons for a guy known more for his antics then his hands. He's not a bad option for PIM as he'll get you about 150 while still getting some points but don't be expecting 60... or even 40. Those seasons came when Toronto let him play the powerplay because they had no other options. Thats not the case on this team. Third line duty all the way for Darcy.
The Offense:
You want to Draft:
Paul Stastny
Joe Sakic
Milan Hejduk
This is Stastny's team. Sakic's return doesn't change that. Two excellent seasons in a row show that Stasny is no fluke (he was on his way to a 85ish point season last year before going down to injury). He'll have a split of about 30 goals and 50 assists this season, doing a lot of damage on the powerplay. The knock on Stastny at this point is that he doesn't shoot the puck so be aware that you will have to make up for that elsewhere if Stastny is your number one center.
FACT: Ok so you know that his father is Hall of Famer Peter Stastny who played for the Avalanche when they were still the Nordiques... but did you know that Paul is one of the only NHL players that still uses a wood stick? Bet you didn't.
JOE! I'm so happy he's coming back. How good is Joe Sakic? So good. No really. Sakic has 1629 points in 1363 career games. Last season he was on pace for a 70-75 point year before being sidelined by hernia surgery. His 40 points scored in 44 games was the first time Sakic finished a season at less then a point a game since 2001-2002 (when he finished with 79 points in 82 games). Sakic takes a fair amount of shots, and sees loads of time on the powerplay. Given this team's goaltending and Joe's waining speed he might be a minus and he won't get you many penalty minutes... but they still don't come much better then Burnaby Joe. Draft him expecting a little less then a point a game and you shouldn't be disappointed.
FACT: Sakic is 8th all time in total points, 14th in goals scored, 11th in assists, 15th in game winning goals.
FACT: One more reason to like Sakic... This is what he had to say about Lindros when he refused to sign with the Nordiques. "We only want players here who have the passion to play the game. I'm tired of hearing that name. He's not here and there are a lot of others in this locker room who really care about the game."
FACT: Joe Sakic has NEVER missed a Penalty Shot.
FACT: Joe Sakic and I both use an Easton Synergy SL composite stick.
Hedge-duck is consistently inconsistent. His numbers were hurt last season by the lack of a Joe Sakic to receive passes from. He will be better this year, scoring somewhere between 60 and 70 points taking around 230 shots and getting about 25 or so points on the powerplay. He is a good second option at RW.
FACT: Hejduk's 98 point year was an incredible anomaly. He scored 50 goals and his shooting percentage was 20.8%... 6 percentage points higher then his usual 14%.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Ryan Smyth
Marek Svatos
Wojitek Wolski
Smyth is a darling of smart hockey fans, we'll call them Spuckheads, because he's a gritty player that tends to step it up when it matters most. Unfortunately for Smyth owners, there's no fantasy stat for that. One of these years Smitty will stay healthy and he'll score 40. He doesn't do much else, fantasy wise, besides score goals though and he's hurt way too often for my taste. You draft him though. Have fun. I'll be the guy over here looking for you younger, healthier left wingers.
FACT: Smyth has played for 13 years and has only compiled 4 complete seasons.
Svatos has been a full time NHL-er for three seasons and has yet to break the 70 game plateau as well. He's not much of a passer. If Svatos can stay healthy he also has the potential to be a 40 goal winger.
FACT: Svatos' ice time, at 13:30 minutes or so, is abnormally low for a guy with 40 goal potential. It signifies a lack of faith on behalf of the coaching staff.
Wolski had a terrible year last year. No other way to slice it. Still he has tons of potential that has yet to shine on the NHL level. With Brunette's departure Wolski should see more time on a scoring line this year and should be monitored as a result.
FACT: Wolski had 128 points in 59 games his last season in the OHL and holds 14 franchise records for his OHL team, the Brampton Battalion.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
John Michael Liles
Liles is capable of 40-50 points with half of them coming on the powerplay. Like the rest of the team his points took a dive with the loss, for significant periods of time, of stars Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny. He'll rebound this year. There is no one else to qb the powerplay here.
FACT: Liles was a finalist for the Hobey Baker award, the trophy awarded to the best player in college hockey, for his play with the Michigan State Spartans.
The Powerplay:
Joe Sakic
Paul Stastny
Milan Hejduk
Ryan Smyth
John Michael Liles
Its a good unit, one that, with all the injuries, never really got a chance to be tested last season. The second unit is going to be kinda scary looking though.
The Goalie(s):
How do you recover from the loss of a franchise player at the most crucial position in the entire sport? You don't. The Devils will face this question in a few years with Martin Brodeur. The Canadiens may have finally put that question to bed in the last few years, but we won't know until we see what Carey Price can do in an full season. New York took several seasons to rebound from the loss of Mike Richter. No one has suffered like the Avalanche though.
The Avalanche have never recovered from Patrick Roy's retirement. Since they lost the best (second best?) goaltender in the history of the game the Avalanche have had an identity problem in net. Its not so much that they couldn't find anyone to do what Patrick did (other then Marty no one can) its that they haven't even been able to get an adequate replacement.
Neither Budaj nor Raycroft are the answer here. Colorado knows this, which is why they have been taking the build from within approach to rebuilding. It will be a while before a goaltender emerges that can fill Roy's pads... but Colorado at this point would settle for one that can fill his blocker. Say the fans, "Not even the glove! Just give us one Roy-hand! A finger? An eyelash? Come on!"
Budaj will once again be serviceable as he splits time for the third straight year. Expect no heroics though. Either of these goalies could be fine for "third goalie spot start" duty but neither is a viable fantasy option.
FACT: Andrew Raycroft's save percentage rose above .880 only once in the last three seasons...when he posted a save percentage of .894! No good. Not even remotely acceptable.
The Verdict:
The Avalanche are a talented offensive team that will suffer defensive problems and stretches of complete mediocrity from their goaltending. Its going to be a long year in Colorado but Joe and Paul should at least make it pretty exciting.
So with Joe Sakic back I took a look at Colorado's roster again. And at first I was wondering why everyone is so down on this team. They are two scoring lines deep. They picked up a more than adequate checker in Darcy Tucker. They held onto John Michael Liles after a subpar season expecting, I think rightly, that he'll rebound. Salei, Foote and Leopold are all fine defenders... and then I see it. Right. Raycroft and Budaj in net. Yeesh...that could be a problem.
I think the West is too good for Colorado to be a playoff team. I actually think that Edmonton may be a better team, but they will still be fun to watch.
Key Departures:
Jose Theodore
Peter Forsberg?
Theodore had something of a career resurgence last year splitting time with Budaj. The only thing he split this offseason was town. Theodore wasn't any kind of long term answer for this team but his departure does hurt their chances this season.
Forsberg, the Racer X of hockey at this point, was barely there to begin with last season, and may be gone again. There are rumors swirling around this week of another comeback attempt. Personally I'd like Foppa to hang up the skates. I love the man to death. Hell my last girlfriend was from Denver originally. For Christmas I got her, amongst other girlie things, a Blue Forsberg Nordiques jersey because she was getting into hockey and I thought the fleur de lis would appeal to her international sensibilities. But back to Peter. I think he's one of the better hockey players I have ever seen ... when he was healthy and in his prime. That time has long since passed for Forsberg, and I personally would like to see one of my hockey heroes enjoy the rest of his life with ankles that still work and without having to suffer on and off the ice.
FACT: I want to remember Peter like this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYsLM06hRuI The goal about 1:55 in, where he carries it around the entire zone before popping it top shelf is the stuff of legend. Do you see how many goalies (good ones like Kipper, Nabakov, Brodeur, Richter, Lundqvist, Osgood and Kolzig in their primes) he makes look stupid in that video? Do you see how he can't be knocked off the puck? That is pure and simple greatness.
New Faces:
Andrew Raycroft
Darcy Tucker
The reclamation project of the year has got to be Andrew Raycroft. Raycroft is the owner of one really good season of statistics, 1 mediocre season in which Mats Sundin won 37 games for him, and two really really god awful seasons. Raycroft will be, in theory, splitting time with Budaj behind what could be the best team he's played for since his Calder season in 03-04. It will be interesting to watch.
Tucker is an interesting addition. He's had a surprising number of offensively good seasons for a guy known more for his antics then his hands. He's not a bad option for PIM as he'll get you about 150 while still getting some points but don't be expecting 60... or even 40. Those seasons came when Toronto let him play the powerplay because they had no other options. Thats not the case on this team. Third line duty all the way for Darcy.
The Offense:
You want to Draft:
Paul Stastny
Joe Sakic
Milan Hejduk
This is Stastny's team. Sakic's return doesn't change that. Two excellent seasons in a row show that Stasny is no fluke (he was on his way to a 85ish point season last year before going down to injury). He'll have a split of about 30 goals and 50 assists this season, doing a lot of damage on the powerplay. The knock on Stastny at this point is that he doesn't shoot the puck so be aware that you will have to make up for that elsewhere if Stastny is your number one center.
FACT: Ok so you know that his father is Hall of Famer Peter Stastny who played for the Avalanche when they were still the Nordiques... but did you know that Paul is one of the only NHL players that still uses a wood stick? Bet you didn't.
JOE! I'm so happy he's coming back. How good is Joe Sakic? So good. No really. Sakic has 1629 points in 1363 career games. Last season he was on pace for a 70-75 point year before being sidelined by hernia surgery. His 40 points scored in 44 games was the first time Sakic finished a season at less then a point a game since 2001-2002 (when he finished with 79 points in 82 games). Sakic takes a fair amount of shots, and sees loads of time on the powerplay. Given this team's goaltending and Joe's waining speed he might be a minus and he won't get you many penalty minutes... but they still don't come much better then Burnaby Joe. Draft him expecting a little less then a point a game and you shouldn't be disappointed.
FACT: Sakic is 8th all time in total points, 14th in goals scored, 11th in assists, 15th in game winning goals.
FACT: One more reason to like Sakic... This is what he had to say about Lindros when he refused to sign with the Nordiques. "We only want players here who have the passion to play the game. I'm tired of hearing that name. He's not here and there are a lot of others in this locker room who really care about the game."
FACT: Joe Sakic has NEVER missed a Penalty Shot.
FACT: Joe Sakic and I both use an Easton Synergy SL composite stick.
Hedge-duck is consistently inconsistent. His numbers were hurt last season by the lack of a Joe Sakic to receive passes from. He will be better this year, scoring somewhere between 60 and 70 points taking around 230 shots and getting about 25 or so points on the powerplay. He is a good second option at RW.
FACT: Hejduk's 98 point year was an incredible anomaly. He scored 50 goals and his shooting percentage was 20.8%... 6 percentage points higher then his usual 14%.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Ryan Smyth
Marek Svatos
Wojitek Wolski
Smyth is a darling of smart hockey fans, we'll call them Spuckheads, because he's a gritty player that tends to step it up when it matters most. Unfortunately for Smyth owners, there's no fantasy stat for that. One of these years Smitty will stay healthy and he'll score 40. He doesn't do much else, fantasy wise, besides score goals though and he's hurt way too often for my taste. You draft him though. Have fun. I'll be the guy over here looking for you younger, healthier left wingers.
FACT: Smyth has played for 13 years and has only compiled 4 complete seasons.
Svatos has been a full time NHL-er for three seasons and has yet to break the 70 game plateau as well. He's not much of a passer. If Svatos can stay healthy he also has the potential to be a 40 goal winger.
FACT: Svatos' ice time, at 13:30 minutes or so, is abnormally low for a guy with 40 goal potential. It signifies a lack of faith on behalf of the coaching staff.
Wolski had a terrible year last year. No other way to slice it. Still he has tons of potential that has yet to shine on the NHL level. With Brunette's departure Wolski should see more time on a scoring line this year and should be monitored as a result.
FACT: Wolski had 128 points in 59 games his last season in the OHL and holds 14 franchise records for his OHL team, the Brampton Battalion.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
John Michael Liles
Liles is capable of 40-50 points with half of them coming on the powerplay. Like the rest of the team his points took a dive with the loss, for significant periods of time, of stars Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny. He'll rebound this year. There is no one else to qb the powerplay here.
FACT: Liles was a finalist for the Hobey Baker award, the trophy awarded to the best player in college hockey, for his play with the Michigan State Spartans.
The Powerplay:
Joe Sakic
Paul Stastny
Milan Hejduk
Ryan Smyth
John Michael Liles
Its a good unit, one that, with all the injuries, never really got a chance to be tested last season. The second unit is going to be kinda scary looking though.
The Goalie(s):
How do you recover from the loss of a franchise player at the most crucial position in the entire sport? You don't. The Devils will face this question in a few years with Martin Brodeur. The Canadiens may have finally put that question to bed in the last few years, but we won't know until we see what Carey Price can do in an full season. New York took several seasons to rebound from the loss of Mike Richter. No one has suffered like the Avalanche though.
The Avalanche have never recovered from Patrick Roy's retirement. Since they lost the best (second best?) goaltender in the history of the game the Avalanche have had an identity problem in net. Its not so much that they couldn't find anyone to do what Patrick did (other then Marty no one can) its that they haven't even been able to get an adequate replacement.
Neither Budaj nor Raycroft are the answer here. Colorado knows this, which is why they have been taking the build from within approach to rebuilding. It will be a while before a goaltender emerges that can fill Roy's pads... but Colorado at this point would settle for one that can fill his blocker. Say the fans, "Not even the glove! Just give us one Roy-hand! A finger? An eyelash? Come on!"
Budaj will once again be serviceable as he splits time for the third straight year. Expect no heroics though. Either of these goalies could be fine for "third goalie spot start" duty but neither is a viable fantasy option.
FACT: Andrew Raycroft's save percentage rose above .880 only once in the last three seasons...when he posted a save percentage of .894! No good. Not even remotely acceptable.
The Verdict:
The Avalanche are a talented offensive team that will suffer defensive problems and stretches of complete mediocrity from their goaltending. Its going to be a long year in Colorado but Joe and Paul should at least make it pretty exciting.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
LIGHTING THE LAMP: Burnaby Joe!
Joe Sakic and the Colorado Avalanche announced today that Joe Sakic would be returning for his 20th season with the club. Sakic began his career with the Avalanche, when they were still the Quebec Nordiques, and has never played for another team.
Because Joe Sakic is my favorite hockey player that has never played for my team I will celebrate this news by doing the Colorado Avalanche Team Preview later on this evening.
Because Joe Sakic is my favorite hockey player that has never played for my team I will celebrate this news by doing the Colorado Avalanche Team Preview later on this evening.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
TEAM PREVIEWS: THE CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Introduction:
Let me come right out and say it; I think you are looking at a 4 or 5 seed here. No one is beating Detroit in this division, unless Osgood goes down and Conklin gives them a full season of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwlvOmIe3XE. Unlikely though.
Enough about Detroit for the moment. Chicago is GOOD... deeper than Toews and Kane, Chicago actually took steps to address their weaknesses in the offseason and bought themselves the components of a championship team. Get ready for the most improved team in the NHL.
Key Departures:
Jason Williams
Nikolai Khabibulin (with any luck)
Williams was a solid forward whose loss will be felt on the slightly wing deprived second and third lines.
Many rumors are circulating on what the Hawks intend to do with Khabibulin and his $6,750,000 contract. Khabibulin's play and constant injuries since he joined the Hawks have turned him from a quality starter and Vezina candidate to a glorified backup. He is now the second best goalie on this team. Despite their representaitions to the contrary, I don't see the Blackhawks using up nearly 13 million dollars on their goaltending tandem. If Khabibulin is traded and brings in a top 6 forward or a shutdown D-man... well then Detroit might have reason to worry.
New Faces:
Cristobal Huet
Brian Campbell
Two of the best free agents available this offseason ended up here in Chicago. Huet fills the need the Hawks thought they addressed long ago by providing them with quality goaltending. There is some concern about Huet facing tons of minutes this year for the first time, but he held up very well down the stretch for the Capitals so I wouldn't worry.
Campbell is a very very good defensman. He isn't the defenseman that scored 62 points last year, but he is a safe bet for another 5o plus points for the next few years. He is going to provide the kind of veteran leadership that this talented D Corps has been lacking. By the time Campbell's contract is up he won't be the number one offensive defenseman here, but by then he will have done his job.
The Offense:
You Want to Draft:
Jonathan Toews
Patrick Kane
Patrick Sharp
Toews was made captain of this team in the offseason. This is not a commentary on the team's depth, but rather an endorsement of Toews' leadership ability. Toews, the bigger scorer of the two big rookies, suffered an injury near the end of last season. If not for that he would have finished with 70ish points and likely would have won the Calder. The sky is the limit for Toews, a future 40 goal scorer, look for between 75 and 85 points for Toews this season but sizable jumps each year hereafter.
FACT: High as I am on Toews... just remember if it isn't this year it'll be next year... it took Kovalchuk three seasons before he really truly broke out. 30 goals and 40ish assists is still a virtual lock though.
Kane did win the rookie of the year last year. His points didn't fall off when Toews went down to injury last year... in fact they picked up. Kane has never been primarily an assist guy; instead tending to, throughout his career, rack up at least as many goals as assists. Last season his numbers suggested that at the NHL level that would not be the case. I ask you to keep in mind that Dany Heatley was primarily an assist guy in his first year as well but his numbers pretty rapidly evened out. I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens to Kane. My prognosis here is the same as with Toews... 75 to 85 points with a ceiling of as high as 100... and enjoy him if you're in a keeper league. They are both only going to get better.
FACT: Kane scored 16 points, 5 goals and 11 assists, in his first month in the NHL, winning rookie of the month. Talk about hitting the ground running.
Sharp was playing with Kane at the end of the season. He showed a lot of promise and netted 36 goals over the course of the season. There is no reason to believe that Sharp, a natural center but a right handed shot, will not continue to play on a line with Kane and Toews this season. If he does I expect his numbers to remain about the same if not improve slightly. Plus he's generally healthy... which puts him high up on the depth chart of righties on this team.
FACT: Sharp's got wheels! He scored seven short handed goals last season.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Martin Havlat
Dustin Byfuglien
I give up. Every year I think... this is it. This is the year Havlat doesn't get hurt and every year I inevitably take him in a draft. Every year the same two people in the draft that think like I do say "Havlat... nice pick man." And I say thank you. And then every year for like a month I think I'm a genius. Then he breaks something, or pulls something, or punches someone and hurts himself and thats it for the season for Marty. I'm done with it. He's a point a game most of the time when he's healthy, wanna take bets on how many games that will be this season?
FACT: I will probably still draft Havlat anyway. He's SOOOOO good when he's healthy.
Byfuglien...which if pronounced the way it is spelled sounds like the name for a sexually confused incredbly ugly alien in some other galaxy... is actually pronounced Buff-lin and is, in this galaxy, the name for a confused hockey player who is either a defenseman or a left wing. If Byfuglien (I'm sorry... no yfug-ing way does yfug sound like uff...) plays enough games to qualify at D but is actually a forward... well 45 points is not out of the question for a second or third winger on this team and those points will look good at D. So just pay attention to how this all plays out.
FACT: Byfuglien had 23 points in 38 games prior to the all star game, thats where I get my 45 point number from.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Brain Campbell
Brent Seabrook
So Campbell is going to be good. He's going to put up number one defenseman numbers... somewhere in the mid-50's would be my guess. He'll run the powerplay, be a plus and all around be one of your better choices at the position.
FACT: Remember he had 19 points in 20 games with San Jose when he was playing with a red hot Joe Thornton.
Seabrook is my breakout candidate from a flock of talented defenseman. Why? Because I like you and I don't want you to make a mistake. If Seabrook doesn't up his point totals much above the 32 he finished with last year, he was still a plus AND he racked up nearly 100 PIM, something he's done twice. So I think Seabrook is the safe pick out of the talented youngsters, because no matter what you'll get 4th defenseman value out of him.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Cam Barker
Duncan Keith
ah... what the hell James Wisniewski too
I think people saying Barker is the big sleeper this year are reaching. Kieth and Wiskiewski both had great seasons last year, hovering around 30 points, being pluses and even seeing some powerplay time. I think Barker has a lot of depth to break through on this team before he becomes a valuable fantasy asset. There's no doubting the talent that any of these guys possess.
So if you're counting I think 5 of the Black hawks' defensemen are of fantasy interest. Yea I'm saying that. Why do you think I like this team so much? They have five d-men, that we know about, that can move the puck, most of whom are very very defensively responsible. Believe the hype...
FACT: Keith is the most defensively minded of the three, so if you want to take a homerun swing do it with Wisnewski or Barker. Keith is an asset though. Playing in front of a revolving door in net Keith still managed a +30 rating.
The Powerplay:
Jonathan Toews
Patrick Kane
Martin Havlat
Brent Seabrook
Brian Campbell
I think this unit will change as the year goes on... mainly because of Havlat's tendency to get hurt and my insecurity with my choice of Seabrook as the big breakout candidate. This is what I think the first unit will look like at the beginning of the year however... with Lang, Byfuglien and Barker making up the principal pieces of the second unit.
The Goalie(s):
Who eh? Huet! Who eh? Huet! Sorry. In addition to D the Blackhawks are deep at goaltending... right. Thats not good.
Huet is the clear starter on this team, they are however saddled with a 6.7 million dollar backup goalie in Khabibulin. If Khabibulin isn't gone at the start of the season, expect Huet and Khabibulin to start the season in a tandem...so that the Hawks can eventually trade Khabibulin and get some value out of his contract.
So... playing swami here... I predict Khabibulin gets traded no later then three months into the season for some help up front (maybe with a D-man) and Huet gets you around 30 wins while still putting up the spectacular save percentage and GAA numbers that you've by now grown accustom to from the man. Draft Huet... be aware of Khabibulin and maybe hedge your bets late if you've got the roster space.
FACT: Huet played in virtually the same number of games as Khabibulin last year. On a better team he faced almost 100 more shots but still had better statistics in every category.
The Verdict:
You hear me out there in Hawk-land! This is a playoff team. It could be a Stanley Cup team with some creative roster juggling though! Get on that!
Draft Toews and Kane as stars that will be future superstars. Draft Sharp, Campbell, Seabrook and Huet with confidence and watch the rest of the Hawks defensmen, and confused defensemen, with interest.
Let me come right out and say it; I think you are looking at a 4 or 5 seed here. No one is beating Detroit in this division, unless Osgood goes down and Conklin gives them a full season of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwlvOmIe3XE. Unlikely though.
Enough about Detroit for the moment. Chicago is GOOD... deeper than Toews and Kane, Chicago actually took steps to address their weaknesses in the offseason and bought themselves the components of a championship team. Get ready for the most improved team in the NHL.
Key Departures:
Jason Williams
Nikolai Khabibulin (with any luck)
Williams was a solid forward whose loss will be felt on the slightly wing deprived second and third lines.
Many rumors are circulating on what the Hawks intend to do with Khabibulin and his $6,750,000 contract. Khabibulin's play and constant injuries since he joined the Hawks have turned him from a quality starter and Vezina candidate to a glorified backup. He is now the second best goalie on this team. Despite their representaitions to the contrary, I don't see the Blackhawks using up nearly 13 million dollars on their goaltending tandem. If Khabibulin is traded and brings in a top 6 forward or a shutdown D-man... well then Detroit might have reason to worry.
New Faces:
Cristobal Huet
Brian Campbell
Two of the best free agents available this offseason ended up here in Chicago. Huet fills the need the Hawks thought they addressed long ago by providing them with quality goaltending. There is some concern about Huet facing tons of minutes this year for the first time, but he held up very well down the stretch for the Capitals so I wouldn't worry.
Campbell is a very very good defensman. He isn't the defenseman that scored 62 points last year, but he is a safe bet for another 5o plus points for the next few years. He is going to provide the kind of veteran leadership that this talented D Corps has been lacking. By the time Campbell's contract is up he won't be the number one offensive defenseman here, but by then he will have done his job.
The Offense:
You Want to Draft:
Jonathan Toews
Patrick Kane
Patrick Sharp
Toews was made captain of this team in the offseason. This is not a commentary on the team's depth, but rather an endorsement of Toews' leadership ability. Toews, the bigger scorer of the two big rookies, suffered an injury near the end of last season. If not for that he would have finished with 70ish points and likely would have won the Calder. The sky is the limit for Toews, a future 40 goal scorer, look for between 75 and 85 points for Toews this season but sizable jumps each year hereafter.
FACT: High as I am on Toews... just remember if it isn't this year it'll be next year... it took Kovalchuk three seasons before he really truly broke out. 30 goals and 40ish assists is still a virtual lock though.
Kane did win the rookie of the year last year. His points didn't fall off when Toews went down to injury last year... in fact they picked up. Kane has never been primarily an assist guy; instead tending to, throughout his career, rack up at least as many goals as assists. Last season his numbers suggested that at the NHL level that would not be the case. I ask you to keep in mind that Dany Heatley was primarily an assist guy in his first year as well but his numbers pretty rapidly evened out. I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens to Kane. My prognosis here is the same as with Toews... 75 to 85 points with a ceiling of as high as 100... and enjoy him if you're in a keeper league. They are both only going to get better.
FACT: Kane scored 16 points, 5 goals and 11 assists, in his first month in the NHL, winning rookie of the month. Talk about hitting the ground running.
Sharp was playing with Kane at the end of the season. He showed a lot of promise and netted 36 goals over the course of the season. There is no reason to believe that Sharp, a natural center but a right handed shot, will not continue to play on a line with Kane and Toews this season. If he does I expect his numbers to remain about the same if not improve slightly. Plus he's generally healthy... which puts him high up on the depth chart of righties on this team.
FACT: Sharp's got wheels! He scored seven short handed goals last season.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Martin Havlat
Dustin Byfuglien
I give up. Every year I think... this is it. This is the year Havlat doesn't get hurt and every year I inevitably take him in a draft. Every year the same two people in the draft that think like I do say "Havlat... nice pick man." And I say thank you. And then every year for like a month I think I'm a genius. Then he breaks something, or pulls something, or punches someone and hurts himself and thats it for the season for Marty. I'm done with it. He's a point a game most of the time when he's healthy, wanna take bets on how many games that will be this season?
FACT: I will probably still draft Havlat anyway. He's SOOOOO good when he's healthy.
Byfuglien...which if pronounced the way it is spelled sounds like the name for a sexually confused incredbly ugly alien in some other galaxy... is actually pronounced Buff-lin and is, in this galaxy, the name for a confused hockey player who is either a defenseman or a left wing. If Byfuglien (I'm sorry... no yfug-ing way does yfug sound like uff...) plays enough games to qualify at D but is actually a forward... well 45 points is not out of the question for a second or third winger on this team and those points will look good at D. So just pay attention to how this all plays out.
FACT: Byfuglien had 23 points in 38 games prior to the all star game, thats where I get my 45 point number from.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Brain Campbell
Brent Seabrook
So Campbell is going to be good. He's going to put up number one defenseman numbers... somewhere in the mid-50's would be my guess. He'll run the powerplay, be a plus and all around be one of your better choices at the position.
FACT: Remember he had 19 points in 20 games with San Jose when he was playing with a red hot Joe Thornton.
Seabrook is my breakout candidate from a flock of talented defenseman. Why? Because I like you and I don't want you to make a mistake. If Seabrook doesn't up his point totals much above the 32 he finished with last year, he was still a plus AND he racked up nearly 100 PIM, something he's done twice. So I think Seabrook is the safe pick out of the talented youngsters, because no matter what you'll get 4th defenseman value out of him.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Cam Barker
Duncan Keith
ah... what the hell James Wisniewski too
I think people saying Barker is the big sleeper this year are reaching. Kieth and Wiskiewski both had great seasons last year, hovering around 30 points, being pluses and even seeing some powerplay time. I think Barker has a lot of depth to break through on this team before he becomes a valuable fantasy asset. There's no doubting the talent that any of these guys possess.
So if you're counting I think 5 of the Black hawks' defensemen are of fantasy interest. Yea I'm saying that. Why do you think I like this team so much? They have five d-men, that we know about, that can move the puck, most of whom are very very defensively responsible. Believe the hype...
FACT: Keith is the most defensively minded of the three, so if you want to take a homerun swing do it with Wisnewski or Barker. Keith is an asset though. Playing in front of a revolving door in net Keith still managed a +30 rating.
The Powerplay:
Jonathan Toews
Patrick Kane
Martin Havlat
Brent Seabrook
Brian Campbell
I think this unit will change as the year goes on... mainly because of Havlat's tendency to get hurt and my insecurity with my choice of Seabrook as the big breakout candidate. This is what I think the first unit will look like at the beginning of the year however... with Lang, Byfuglien and Barker making up the principal pieces of the second unit.
The Goalie(s):
Who eh? Huet! Who eh? Huet! Sorry. In addition to D the Blackhawks are deep at goaltending... right. Thats not good.
Huet is the clear starter on this team, they are however saddled with a 6.7 million dollar backup goalie in Khabibulin. If Khabibulin isn't gone at the start of the season, expect Huet and Khabibulin to start the season in a tandem...so that the Hawks can eventually trade Khabibulin and get some value out of his contract.
So... playing swami here... I predict Khabibulin gets traded no later then three months into the season for some help up front (maybe with a D-man) and Huet gets you around 30 wins while still putting up the spectacular save percentage and GAA numbers that you've by now grown accustom to from the man. Draft Huet... be aware of Khabibulin and maybe hedge your bets late if you've got the roster space.
FACT: Huet played in virtually the same number of games as Khabibulin last year. On a better team he faced almost 100 more shots but still had better statistics in every category.
The Verdict:
You hear me out there in Hawk-land! This is a playoff team. It could be a Stanley Cup team with some creative roster juggling though! Get on that!
Draft Toews and Kane as stars that will be future superstars. Draft Sharp, Campbell, Seabrook and Huet with confidence and watch the rest of the Hawks defensmen, and confused defensemen, with interest.
LIGHTING THE LAMP: Teemu's yearly bout of indecision
So... like the Panthers I feel there is a big enough question mark hanging over the Anaheim Mighty Ducks to hold off on writing their team preview. That question... will he or won't he? Will Selanne play a full season for the Ducks, a half season, or retire altogether?
Teemu had 23 points in 26 games last season, but I'm not holding off simply for Teemu's sake. Anaheim has cap problems... problems that will become catastrophic if they suddenly need to make room for Teemu. Lots of shuffling would have to happen very quickly, including the long rumored dealing of Mathieu Schneider and his 5,750,000 dollar salary(who would be most teams best offensive defenseman but is easily third on this squad). Movement will happen fast and furious and this team will look altogether different.
In addition Teemu would improve the offensive prospects for Brendan Morrison, the Ducks new second line center, as he would either be playing with Corey Perry or Sellanne instated of Brad May and Bobby Ryan.
Teemu takes a one line team and gives it two. The Ducks will be successful without him, but its impossible to tell how successful until we get an answer from Teemu one way or another. So I'll be holding off on this team preview until we get wind of Teemu's decision or it is just too close to the season to keep waiting.
Teemu had 23 points in 26 games last season, but I'm not holding off simply for Teemu's sake. Anaheim has cap problems... problems that will become catastrophic if they suddenly need to make room for Teemu. Lots of shuffling would have to happen very quickly, including the long rumored dealing of Mathieu Schneider and his 5,750,000 dollar salary(who would be most teams best offensive defenseman but is easily third on this squad). Movement will happen fast and furious and this team will look altogether different.
In addition Teemu would improve the offensive prospects for Brendan Morrison, the Ducks new second line center, as he would either be playing with Corey Perry or Sellanne instated of Brad May and Bobby Ryan.
Teemu takes a one line team and gives it two. The Ducks will be successful without him, but its impossible to tell how successful until we get an answer from Teemu one way or another. So I'll be holding off on this team preview until we get wind of Teemu's decision or it is just too close to the season to keep waiting.
TEAM PREVIEWS: THE PHOENIX COYOTES
Introduction:
An influx of young talent and the arrival of Olli Jokinen are making Gretzky's desert dogs a popular pre-season surprise candidate. They have a talented goalie, a more talented by the day offense, and a fairly solid defense assuming that Jovanovski can have another healthy season. That said the youngsters on this team are still young, and the Coyotes aren't particularly deep at any position except possibly center.
Bryzgalov, Jokinen and Doan will provide heroics from day 1, and they will be an interesting team to watch as youngsters like Mueller and Turris announce their presence but I think Gretzky still has a few tough years ahead of him as he gets this franchise back on its feet.
Key Departures:
Keith Ballard
Nick Boynton
Radim Vrbata
The Coyotes sacrificed their depth in defensive defenseman in order to obtain a legitimate number 1 center. Ballard and Boynton was on no one's list of fantasy relevant defensemen and Ballard had yet to show the promise as an offensive defensemen that had been projected earlier in his career but their loss hurts Phoenix as a team. With fewer quality D-men, much more pressure will be on Bryzgalov to perform this year.
Gone also is the talented Radim Vrbata. The Coyotes are dry at wing and this move will hurt their depth some. Expect some shuffling of lines as a result this season.
New Faces:
Olli Jokinen
Jokinen is unfairly criticized for never leading a team to the post-season. Here there will be no such expectations placed upon him. Jokinen will also find himself with a supporting cast reminiscent of his time in Florida. A talented power forward of a right winger, a goalie better then his win total would indicate, a few talented d-men and lots of prospects. Same story, different warm weather climate for Jokinen.
The Offense:
You Want to Draft:
Olli Jokinen
Shane Doan
Jokinen had been something of a fantasy god since the lockout. Last season saw a bit of a setback for the talented center as he became a significant minus and scored only 71 points. Jokinen was the center of trade rumors for the entire season and at 29 is too young to have peaked. Expect a return to the 80 point arena, and better +/-. Expect about 70 PIM, 35 powerplay points and 350 shots from the talented and useful center.
FACT: Why do I preach patience with the prospects? Jokinen was drafted 3rd overall by the Los Angeles Kings... and was on his third team by the time he scored thirty goals. We've seen a lot of players step in and be instantly relevant in the last few years, but that still isn't the norm. Be aware of your prospects and be patient with them.
Doan saw his value skyrocket last season as he had his best fantasy season since his 66 point 123 PIM season in 2005-2006. Doan will probably one get you about half of those PIM this year, Gretzky has reigned him in, and expect a slight downgrade on his 78 point season last year as he becomes more of a supporting player with Jokinen's arrival. On the positive side his plus/minus and powerplay numbers should improve.
FACT: Shane Doan is the only player currently on the Coyotes who played with the team when they were still the Winnipeg Jets.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Peter Mueller
Kyle Turris
Mueller had a spectacular breakout season last year, scoring 35 of his 54 points in the second half of the year. I think its entirely possible that he sustains that pace but Jokinen's arrival is going to knock down his ice time. Further, if Turris is in fact the Calder trophy candidate many prognosticators believe him to be then Mueller will receive even less ice time as he would suddenly find himself as the third line center. I'm not knocking Mueller, I think he's very talented but unless he switches to the wing he won't see much ice at all as Phoenix is very very deep at center.
FACT: Mueller played in the NHL young stars game last season.
Turris, the third overall selection in 2007, has a lot of people excited and saying words like "Calder." I, for one, believe that is Stamkos' to lose. Turris has been successful at every level he's played at, but he still has to prove that he is NHL ready and will be fighting for playing time at the a DEEP position for the Coyotes. Watch him. Draft him late if you have to, but don't draft him like he's the next Crosby.
FACT: Turris was born on August 14, 1989... the same day the Sega Genesis was released in North America. That's right ...Turris is just as old as the Genesis.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Ed Jovanovski
It has never been a question of talent with Jovo-cop, nor has it been about determination. Jovo's got the skill and the will he just doesn't have the health plan. If Jovo stays healthy he'll be something of a Phaneuf lite for you, getting a little over 50 points, scoring on the powerplay and putting up big PIM numbers... if he doesn't well... have somebody ready to replace him on that bench. Like everyone else who will play with him, Jokinen's arrival should help Jovanovski in the games that he does play. Should he go down look to Derrik Morris or Zbynek Michalek to pick up the slack. Morris has value for PIM while Jovo is healthy. Michalek has value if he finds the next level many believe him capable of.
FACT: Since 2002-03 Jovanovski has missed 109 games to injury.
The Powerplay:
Olli Jokinen
Shane Doan
Peter Mueller
Martin Hanzal
Ed Jovanovski
Instantly better as a result of Jokinen's arrival, the first unit should be far more effective this year. Hanzal's position here is somewhat suspect and could go to Turris or a younger defenseman.
The Goalie(s):
Bryzgalov ends a drought of quality goaltending in the desert. Since being acquired off of waivers last year (welcome to the salary cap NHL) Breezie has single-handedly carried the Coyotes back into relevance, even putting them in the playoff picture for a little while last season. Bryzgalov's Save Percentage should remain relatively spectacular this season. The GAA is going to be what its going to be (anywhere from 2.30 to 2.70 depending on how quickly the D adjusts to the loss of Ballard and Boynton) and Bryzgalov should get you anywhere from 28 to 34 wins. He's a good option, better then most. Save Percentage is the toughest of the predictable categories to draft.
FACT: Bryzgalov currently has the second longest shutout streak in the NHL playoffs having accomplished the feat with three consecutive shutouts in 2005-06.
The Verdict:
The Coyotes, are a couple of years, a couple of wingers, and a shutdown defenseman away from being a real cup contender, but they have made significant strides and should, at the very least, be an entertaining team to watch while they try to get there.
An influx of young talent and the arrival of Olli Jokinen are making Gretzky's desert dogs a popular pre-season surprise candidate. They have a talented goalie, a more talented by the day offense, and a fairly solid defense assuming that Jovanovski can have another healthy season. That said the youngsters on this team are still young, and the Coyotes aren't particularly deep at any position except possibly center.
Bryzgalov, Jokinen and Doan will provide heroics from day 1, and they will be an interesting team to watch as youngsters like Mueller and Turris announce their presence but I think Gretzky still has a few tough years ahead of him as he gets this franchise back on its feet.
Key Departures:
Keith Ballard
Nick Boynton
Radim Vrbata
The Coyotes sacrificed their depth in defensive defenseman in order to obtain a legitimate number 1 center. Ballard and Boynton was on no one's list of fantasy relevant defensemen and Ballard had yet to show the promise as an offensive defensemen that had been projected earlier in his career but their loss hurts Phoenix as a team. With fewer quality D-men, much more pressure will be on Bryzgalov to perform this year.
Gone also is the talented Radim Vrbata. The Coyotes are dry at wing and this move will hurt their depth some. Expect some shuffling of lines as a result this season.
New Faces:
Olli Jokinen
Jokinen is unfairly criticized for never leading a team to the post-season. Here there will be no such expectations placed upon him. Jokinen will also find himself with a supporting cast reminiscent of his time in Florida. A talented power forward of a right winger, a goalie better then his win total would indicate, a few talented d-men and lots of prospects. Same story, different warm weather climate for Jokinen.
The Offense:
You Want to Draft:
Olli Jokinen
Shane Doan
Jokinen had been something of a fantasy god since the lockout. Last season saw a bit of a setback for the talented center as he became a significant minus and scored only 71 points. Jokinen was the center of trade rumors for the entire season and at 29 is too young to have peaked. Expect a return to the 80 point arena, and better +/-. Expect about 70 PIM, 35 powerplay points and 350 shots from the talented and useful center.
FACT: Why do I preach patience with the prospects? Jokinen was drafted 3rd overall by the Los Angeles Kings... and was on his third team by the time he scored thirty goals. We've seen a lot of players step in and be instantly relevant in the last few years, but that still isn't the norm. Be aware of your prospects and be patient with them.
Doan saw his value skyrocket last season as he had his best fantasy season since his 66 point 123 PIM season in 2005-2006. Doan will probably one get you about half of those PIM this year, Gretzky has reigned him in, and expect a slight downgrade on his 78 point season last year as he becomes more of a supporting player with Jokinen's arrival. On the positive side his plus/minus and powerplay numbers should improve.
FACT: Shane Doan is the only player currently on the Coyotes who played with the team when they were still the Winnipeg Jets.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Peter Mueller
Kyle Turris
Mueller had a spectacular breakout season last year, scoring 35 of his 54 points in the second half of the year. I think its entirely possible that he sustains that pace but Jokinen's arrival is going to knock down his ice time. Further, if Turris is in fact the Calder trophy candidate many prognosticators believe him to be then Mueller will receive even less ice time as he would suddenly find himself as the third line center. I'm not knocking Mueller, I think he's very talented but unless he switches to the wing he won't see much ice at all as Phoenix is very very deep at center.
FACT: Mueller played in the NHL young stars game last season.
Turris, the third overall selection in 2007, has a lot of people excited and saying words like "Calder." I, for one, believe that is Stamkos' to lose. Turris has been successful at every level he's played at, but he still has to prove that he is NHL ready and will be fighting for playing time at the a DEEP position for the Coyotes. Watch him. Draft him late if you have to, but don't draft him like he's the next Crosby.
FACT: Turris was born on August 14, 1989... the same day the Sega Genesis was released in North America. That's right ...Turris is just as old as the Genesis.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Ed Jovanovski
It has never been a question of talent with Jovo-cop, nor has it been about determination. Jovo's got the skill and the will he just doesn't have the health plan. If Jovo stays healthy he'll be something of a Phaneuf lite for you, getting a little over 50 points, scoring on the powerplay and putting up big PIM numbers... if he doesn't well... have somebody ready to replace him on that bench. Like everyone else who will play with him, Jokinen's arrival should help Jovanovski in the games that he does play. Should he go down look to Derrik Morris or Zbynek Michalek to pick up the slack. Morris has value for PIM while Jovo is healthy. Michalek has value if he finds the next level many believe him capable of.
FACT: Since 2002-03 Jovanovski has missed 109 games to injury.
The Powerplay:
Olli Jokinen
Shane Doan
Peter Mueller
Martin Hanzal
Ed Jovanovski
Instantly better as a result of Jokinen's arrival, the first unit should be far more effective this year. Hanzal's position here is somewhat suspect and could go to Turris or a younger defenseman.
The Goalie(s):
Bryzgalov ends a drought of quality goaltending in the desert. Since being acquired off of waivers last year (welcome to the salary cap NHL) Breezie has single-handedly carried the Coyotes back into relevance, even putting them in the playoff picture for a little while last season. Bryzgalov's Save Percentage should remain relatively spectacular this season. The GAA is going to be what its going to be (anywhere from 2.30 to 2.70 depending on how quickly the D adjusts to the loss of Ballard and Boynton) and Bryzgalov should get you anywhere from 28 to 34 wins. He's a good option, better then most. Save Percentage is the toughest of the predictable categories to draft.
FACT: Bryzgalov currently has the second longest shutout streak in the NHL playoffs having accomplished the feat with three consecutive shutouts in 2005-06.
The Verdict:
The Coyotes, are a couple of years, a couple of wingers, and a shutdown defenseman away from being a real cup contender, but they have made significant strides and should, at the very least, be an entertaining team to watch while they try to get there.
Monday, August 25, 2008
TEAM PREVIEWS: THE LOS ANGELES KINGS
Introduction:
Someone once said of me that I over analyze the "almost tough questions" and never spend the time to dig deep enough to get the answers that are really important. The Los Angeles Kings have known for years that their defense is suspect, and rather then try to develop it from within or sign role players through free agency, the Kings have constantly traded away their strengths or let them walk in order to try to improve that area, thus assembling and dismantling teams at a record pace.
You have to respect a team that is legitimately trying to rebuild. In the last few years Edmonton, Carolina, Washington and Pittsburgh have shown us what commitment to prospects combined with with smart free agent acquisitions can do for a team. An empty lot can turn into skyscraper of a Stanley Cup contender nearly overnight.
This is not what the Kings have done. The Kings have, over and over again, built a team, torn it down, and then tried to rebuild it. The Kings are sort of like Boston's Big Dig. No matter how much money and time is sunk into it, there will always be construction, there will always be traffic and there will be very few visible results. I don't see how any "rebuilding plan" can include trading one of your best players to move up 15 picks in the draft only to take a solid stay at home defenseman that won't be NHL ready for years. Are we that sour on Jack Johnson already? Los Angeles continues to draft or trade for the same player over and over again without ever paying attention to the rest of their team.
Kings fans have a right to be suspect. Get ready for another long year.
Key Departures:
Michael Cammalleri
Lubomir Visnovsky
Ok so if you've been keeping up you know that I love this guy... probably because he's not much taller then I am but is a ton more talented. Cammalleri won the hockey this summer when LA traded him to Calgary to play with Jarome Iginla... the guy who instantly made Daymond Langkow relevant and his resulting boost in productivity should be pretty astronomical. The deal is going to look worse then it actually is, and I'm not a fan of it as it is. Sure Cammalleri was drafted in the second round and they got a high first round pick for him, but Cammalleri was poised to be a mainstay on this team for years. Jarret Stoll is hardly a replacement.
They presumably traded Visnovsky because they had too many good d-men in the pipeline... and then they drafted more d-men. You see my confusion right?
New Faces:
Jarret Stoll
Drew Doughty
I wouldn't be too focused on Stoll. He had one good year with Edmonton and is now, at best the third line center in LA behind O'Sullivan and Kopitar
Doughty is predicted to be "NHL ready" by most scouts. These same scouts said that Jack Johnson was going to be an offensive force last season, so I would take that with a grain of salt. The second overall pick of this year's draft steps onto a crowded blue line in LA. The preseason will show what kind of role we can expect him to play. I'll keep you updated.
The Offense:
The Kings have managed to not completely dismantle their offense. Despite their best attempts (and amidst rumors that Kopitar might be on the move) they still have several fantasy relevant forwards... if you can afford a plus/minus hit.
You Want to Draft:
Anze Kopitar
Patrick O'Sullivan
Alexander Frolov
Dustin Brown
Kopitar took a nice leap forward last year, increasing his point total by 16 points. He's good. He'd be even better on a better team. He's a solid option at center, again if you can take the plus/minus hit that comes with being a player on the Kings.
FACT: Anze Kopitar was the first Slovenian to play in the NHL
O'Sullivan took a giant leap forward last season, and is probably a large part of why the Kings felt that they could deal Cammalleri in the off-season. O'Sullivan has produced at every level he has played at and there is no reason to believe that he won't continue to do so. His point totals are still a little low to justify the plus/minus risk, but he could have a massive season with the space that Cammalleri's departure leaves on the powerplay.
FACT: O'Sullivan, a second round pick, was projected to be a first round pick, but was moved down largely due to off-ice issues. He has all the talent of a first round pick and will continue to show that.
Frolov was actually a plus on this team and has been for most of his career. Frolov is probably the best fantasy option for you here. He's a left wing has explosive speed and 40 goal potential. Because of where he plays he will slip under a lot of people's radars. He's a solid solid pick.
FACT: The knock against Frolov is that he doesn't shoot enough. I would draft him expecting about 200 shots and 30 goals.
Brown has seen a healthy jump in production in each season. He gets you some PIM and also plays the powerplay. He will unquestionably be on the first line this season with Frolov and Kopitar. It should be a very very good line. Expect another slight jump from Brown. Again be aware of the plus/minus issue.
FACT: Brown nearly doubled his goal total last season from 17 in 06-07 to 33 in 07-08.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
uh... Jack Johnson or Tom Preissing
I know that I just took a shot at the scouts that predicted his rise last season... but hear me out. Last year neither he nor Preissing saw much powerplay time. This year they are the only two options to play the point. Johnson has been an offensive force at every level and should get their at this one eventually. The problem is knowing when that is going to happen. I would postulate that it could be this year... or Preissing could see all that time go to him or...
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Drew Doughty
I don't think he'll be NHL ready yet, but I seem to be in the minority. I think Johnson is the candidate for Visnovsky's powerplay time here, but its really any one's guess. Lots of unanswered questions out in LA.
FACT: Confused yet? Unless Doughty is the second coming of Bobby Orr this is not his year. All you need to know that is to look at Johnson's stats last year with similar hype. D-men take a while to develop in the NHL. Ask Marc Staal.
The Powerplay:
Anze Kopitar
Dustin Brown
Alexander Frolov
Patrick O'Sullivan
Mystery D-man
A lot of speed but not a lot of experience and no clear leader. Kopitar, Brown and Frolov should be starting to get comfortable with each other at this point however.
The Goalie(s):
LaBarbera is the goalie of right now out in LA. Bernier is the goalie of the future. Neither of them should be the goalie of your fantasy team. LaBarbera is probably all right to grab as a third goalie for spot starts (his GAA and SV% are actually pretty respectable) but he won't get you north of 25 wins.
FACT: LaBarbera holds the AHL record for most shutouts in a single season with 13.
The Verdict:
For the most part stay away. The Kings will win just enough games to not be a consideration for first overall in the draft next year and therefore won't have a shot at Tavares. They will instead draft third and get a talented offensive defenseman. Draft Frolov with confidence and Kopitar and Brown if you can afford the plus/minus hit.
Someone once said of me that I over analyze the "almost tough questions" and never spend the time to dig deep enough to get the answers that are really important. The Los Angeles Kings have known for years that their defense is suspect, and rather then try to develop it from within or sign role players through free agency, the Kings have constantly traded away their strengths or let them walk in order to try to improve that area, thus assembling and dismantling teams at a record pace.
You have to respect a team that is legitimately trying to rebuild. In the last few years Edmonton, Carolina, Washington and Pittsburgh have shown us what commitment to prospects combined with with smart free agent acquisitions can do for a team. An empty lot can turn into skyscraper of a Stanley Cup contender nearly overnight.
This is not what the Kings have done. The Kings have, over and over again, built a team, torn it down, and then tried to rebuild it. The Kings are sort of like Boston's Big Dig. No matter how much money and time is sunk into it, there will always be construction, there will always be traffic and there will be very few visible results. I don't see how any "rebuilding plan" can include trading one of your best players to move up 15 picks in the draft only to take a solid stay at home defenseman that won't be NHL ready for years. Are we that sour on Jack Johnson already? Los Angeles continues to draft or trade for the same player over and over again without ever paying attention to the rest of their team.
Kings fans have a right to be suspect. Get ready for another long year.
Key Departures:
Michael Cammalleri
Lubomir Visnovsky
Ok so if you've been keeping up you know that I love this guy... probably because he's not much taller then I am but is a ton more talented. Cammalleri won the hockey this summer when LA traded him to Calgary to play with Jarome Iginla... the guy who instantly made Daymond Langkow relevant and his resulting boost in productivity should be pretty astronomical. The deal is going to look worse then it actually is, and I'm not a fan of it as it is. Sure Cammalleri was drafted in the second round and they got a high first round pick for him, but Cammalleri was poised to be a mainstay on this team for years. Jarret Stoll is hardly a replacement.
They presumably traded Visnovsky because they had too many good d-men in the pipeline... and then they drafted more d-men. You see my confusion right?
New Faces:
Jarret Stoll
Drew Doughty
I wouldn't be too focused on Stoll. He had one good year with Edmonton and is now, at best the third line center in LA behind O'Sullivan and Kopitar
Doughty is predicted to be "NHL ready" by most scouts. These same scouts said that Jack Johnson was going to be an offensive force last season, so I would take that with a grain of salt. The second overall pick of this year's draft steps onto a crowded blue line in LA. The preseason will show what kind of role we can expect him to play. I'll keep you updated.
The Offense:
The Kings have managed to not completely dismantle their offense. Despite their best attempts (and amidst rumors that Kopitar might be on the move) they still have several fantasy relevant forwards... if you can afford a plus/minus hit.
You Want to Draft:
Anze Kopitar
Patrick O'Sullivan
Alexander Frolov
Dustin Brown
Kopitar took a nice leap forward last year, increasing his point total by 16 points. He's good. He'd be even better on a better team. He's a solid option at center, again if you can take the plus/minus hit that comes with being a player on the Kings.
FACT: Anze Kopitar was the first Slovenian to play in the NHL
O'Sullivan took a giant leap forward last season, and is probably a large part of why the Kings felt that they could deal Cammalleri in the off-season. O'Sullivan has produced at every level he has played at and there is no reason to believe that he won't continue to do so. His point totals are still a little low to justify the plus/minus risk, but he could have a massive season with the space that Cammalleri's departure leaves on the powerplay.
FACT: O'Sullivan, a second round pick, was projected to be a first round pick, but was moved down largely due to off-ice issues. He has all the talent of a first round pick and will continue to show that.
Frolov was actually a plus on this team and has been for most of his career. Frolov is probably the best fantasy option for you here. He's a left wing has explosive speed and 40 goal potential. Because of where he plays he will slip under a lot of people's radars. He's a solid solid pick.
FACT: The knock against Frolov is that he doesn't shoot enough. I would draft him expecting about 200 shots and 30 goals.
Brown has seen a healthy jump in production in each season. He gets you some PIM and also plays the powerplay. He will unquestionably be on the first line this season with Frolov and Kopitar. It should be a very very good line. Expect another slight jump from Brown. Again be aware of the plus/minus issue.
FACT: Brown nearly doubled his goal total last season from 17 in 06-07 to 33 in 07-08.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
uh... Jack Johnson or Tom Preissing
I know that I just took a shot at the scouts that predicted his rise last season... but hear me out. Last year neither he nor Preissing saw much powerplay time. This year they are the only two options to play the point. Johnson has been an offensive force at every level and should get their at this one eventually. The problem is knowing when that is going to happen. I would postulate that it could be this year... or Preissing could see all that time go to him or...
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Drew Doughty
I don't think he'll be NHL ready yet, but I seem to be in the minority. I think Johnson is the candidate for Visnovsky's powerplay time here, but its really any one's guess. Lots of unanswered questions out in LA.
FACT: Confused yet? Unless Doughty is the second coming of Bobby Orr this is not his year. All you need to know that is to look at Johnson's stats last year with similar hype. D-men take a while to develop in the NHL. Ask Marc Staal.
The Powerplay:
Anze Kopitar
Dustin Brown
Alexander Frolov
Patrick O'Sullivan
Mystery D-man
A lot of speed but not a lot of experience and no clear leader. Kopitar, Brown and Frolov should be starting to get comfortable with each other at this point however.
The Goalie(s):
LaBarbera is the goalie of right now out in LA. Bernier is the goalie of the future. Neither of them should be the goalie of your fantasy team. LaBarbera is probably all right to grab as a third goalie for spot starts (his GAA and SV% are actually pretty respectable) but he won't get you north of 25 wins.
FACT: LaBarbera holds the AHL record for most shutouts in a single season with 13.
The Verdict:
For the most part stay away. The Kings will win just enough games to not be a consideration for first overall in the draft next year and therefore won't have a shot at Tavares. They will instead draft third and get a talented offensive defenseman. Draft Frolov with confidence and Kopitar and Brown if you can afford the plus/minus hit.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
TEAM PREVIEWS: THE DALLAS STARS
Introduction:
And everyone said that last year was finally the year that Dallas was going to start its decline. What was supposed to be a disintegration for Dallas turned instead into a coalescence of many disparate parts. As Dallas' old stars faded, new rose. For years Morrow has been a spectacular role player. Now he's a first line power forward. Ribiero never clicked in Montreal, but received the line mates and playing time to announce himself in Dallas last year. And then there's Brad Richards.
If this team lacked anything it was toughness. A Pest. They got that in Avery. Dallas was outmatched by Detroit in the postseason, taking them six games before succumbing. Detroit may not be so lucky this season.
Key Departures:
Niklas Hagman
Not so much a key departure as the only one. Hagman was fine last season but is certainly replaceable.
New Face(s):
Sean Avery
Fabian Brunnström
I hate this guy! But so does every fan of every team he doesn't play for. He's an agitator with speed and more then a little skill. I think the most frustrating thing about watching him play is that you can imagine an alternative universe in which Avery doesn't annoy anyone and scores 70 points a year. That's not this universe though. Avery does what he does, and not too many can do it any better.
Brunnström is a 23 year old rookie, coming in from the Swedish Elite League and signed as an unrestricted free agent. It is tough to say what this guy is going to be capable of. He has the recommendation of Hakkan Loob though... oh and he does things like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQi8tS3wric&feature=related
The Offense:
You Want to Draft:
Mike Ribiero
Brad Richards
Brendan Morrow
Did I really put Mike Ribiero first? Yea but don't read into it too much. I'm wearing an LA Kings shirt right now just cause its comfy and yellow. I like yellow. See I'm unpredictable. Ribiero had a really spectacularly good season. 27 goals and 56 assists on 107 shots. Just wow. Ribiero has never done anything like this before and might not ever do anything like it again. Mike was over a point a game (well over when you consider that he only played 76 games) and it will be tough to match that pace this year. Adjust him down to about 75 points. He should remain a significant plus and continue to clean up on the powerplay so drafting him should be a fairly good call... assuming you can make those shots up somewhere else. Other than me, and by implication you, no one is going to believe in Ribiero this year so you might be able to steal a near point a game player LATE in the draft.
FACT: Ribiero remained hot in the playoffs, leading the Stars in points scored with 17 through 18 games.
Richards is probably the best hockey player on this team. I made kind of a habit of bashing the guy for the last couple of seasons (I didn't draft him in the 91 point year and then out of spite wished and predicted his poor years after same) but I think he's a spectacular hockey player that was stuck in a bad situation in Tampa. Its sad that he had to leave in order for the situation to improve but these are the realities of a salary cap driven world. Despite his Conn Smythe, Vinny was the face of that franchise... but Richards was the heart. Expect high 70's in points, WAY more shots then Ribiero(like 3 times as many), similar power play numbers, similar plus and similar lack of PIM. Essentially they will be the same player except Richards will probably put up slightly more points and a TON more shots. Draft him several rounds earlier.
FACT: Richards had 11 points in 12 games with Dallas last season and an additional 15 points in 18 playoff games. He seems to like his new surroundings.
Morrow is legitimate power forward. He will be a threat for between 70 and 80 points this year, he'll be a plus, and he will net you somewhere between 100 and 150 PIM while getting high 20's to low 30's production in powerplay points. Put into English, the guy does a LOT of everything for you. And he's a left wing! Think Shanahan in his 30's, minus about 50 shots, and you have a pretty good idea of what you're getting with Morrow.
FACT: Like all of Dallas' big guns, Morrow saw about 20 minutes of ice time per game. They are not afraid to play their superstars in Big D.
You Want to Keep an Eye on:
Sean Avery
Fabian Brunnstrom
Jere Lehtinen
Mike Modano
Avery is a threat to score 50 points and get 200 PIM. That makes him valuable, regardless of the fact that he gets no powerplay time and only takes about 150 or so shots. He is a very very rare commodity. How rare? Only two people ranked ahead of Avery in PIM had more points then he did last year, Phaneuf with 60 points and Hartnell with 43. Avery only had 33 points... but he only played in 57 games. If you need PIM and want production you don't get too many better options than the pest.
FACT: Avery's style of play does make him injury (and suspension) prone. Be warned.
There isn't much that I'm qualified to say about Brunnstrom, other then what has been mentioned above. He's probably a very good sleeper candidate. If he shows any promise he will end up with one of Dallas' three talented centers. See how he does and be prepared to pounce. He could be a good consolation prize if you miss out on the Stamkos sweepstakes.
FACT: Like the earlier video? Check out the greatest hits... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfRkAnRUgfI. I don't know if he's good or if the Swedish goalies are just really bad.
Lehtinen and Modano both managed to keep themselves relevant for at least one more season last year. Lehtinen in particular was on his way to a fantastic season with 37 points in 48 games before getting injured. Both players are still fantasy relevant, if for nothing else then for their scoring spurts. Keep an eye on them, but I don't know that you need to draft either.
FACT: Modano is one of those rare players that will play his entire career on the same franchise, starting with the Stars WAY back when they were the Minnesota North Stars and wore much much cooler jerseys.
The Defense
You Want to Draft:
Philippe Boucher
Sergei Zubov
At 35 and 38 Boucher and Zubov are the Danny Gloverss to the rest of the D's Mel Gibson, and incidentally the only members of Dallas's D corps old enough to get that reference. The age started to show last season as both missed significant time to injury. No clear successors emerged in their absence so both should still be drafted as the offensive powerhouses they are capable of being. Just remember, once the engine starts to break down it tends to keep doing so.
Boucher is one of my ideal d-men. He can get you between 40 and 50 points, 70 and 100 PIM, 150-200 shots and spend some time on the powerplay. I like my d-men to do a bit of everything, to make up for high point producing low specialty category producing forwards. Unfortunately his injury problems are not limited to last season... so buyer beware.
FACT: Boucher was always an offensive threat in his junior hockey career and was drafted in the first round by the Buffalo Sabers. He is great when healthy.
In contrast, Zubov has maintained a pretty consistent level of greatness throughout his career. Rarely injured, Zubov has been one of the cornerstones of the Dallas powerplay since 2007-2008. Ten years ladies and gentleman. That's a heck of a run. The dreaded "sports hernia" caught up with him last season however. I would expect Sergei to be ready to go this season, I'd just monitor his health. He should still be an offensive force to be reckoned with and should be drafted as such. He will get you everything except for PIM.
FACT: The new NHL has helped Zubov immensely. He scored 71 points in 05-06 and 54 in 06-07. Last season he had already notched 35 points in 46 games before going down to injury.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Matt Niskanen
Niskanen isn't really seeing powerplay time yet, but that could change with one injury. Last season he was a +22 and scored 26 points... at the age of 21. There is a lot of promise in Niskanen, drafted in the 1st round by Dallas in 2005. Keep an eye on him and don't hesitate to grab him if one of the two aging wonders go down.
FACT: Niskanen actually slowed significantly after the all star break, scoring only 7 of his 26 points in the last portion of the season. This could mean any number of things, but is likely attributable to the rigors of a full NHL season wearing on him and also to the Stars renewed commitment to defense as the playoff push heated up.
The Powerplay:
Mike Ribiero
Brendan Morrow
Brad Richards
Sergei Zubov
Philippe Boucher
Richards actually didn't see a whole lot of powerplay time after his arrival in Dallas, likely because at that point in the season Dallas' powerplay was clicking and had been playing well together for most of the year. His powerplay time increased in the postseason however. Ribiero made himself something of a powerplay specialist last year, particularly in the playoffs where he scored 11 of his 17 points on the man advantage.
The Goalie(s):
Turco gets his chance to shine. "The other Marty" put up great postseason numbers last year, keeping them in almost every game and finally shaking that monkey off his back. With Smith gone Turco's minutes will go up, and so will his win totals. Turco's numbers may never reach their pre-lockout greatness, but he is a dependable netminder on a strong defensive team.
The Verdict:
Dallas is a very well put together team. They are built to counterattack and to beat their teams into submission with strong physical and defensive play. In my opinion they are the best team in the West not named the Red Wings... at least this year. Dallas also presents you with many "well-rounded" fantasy options in Morrow, Boucher, and Richards. Draft Richards, Morrow, Boucher, Zubov, Turco, and Ribiero with confidence.
And everyone said that last year was finally the year that Dallas was going to start its decline. What was supposed to be a disintegration for Dallas turned instead into a coalescence of many disparate parts. As Dallas' old stars faded, new rose. For years Morrow has been a spectacular role player. Now he's a first line power forward. Ribiero never clicked in Montreal, but received the line mates and playing time to announce himself in Dallas last year. And then there's Brad Richards.
If this team lacked anything it was toughness. A Pest. They got that in Avery. Dallas was outmatched by Detroit in the postseason, taking them six games before succumbing. Detroit may not be so lucky this season.
Key Departures:
Niklas Hagman
Not so much a key departure as the only one. Hagman was fine last season but is certainly replaceable.
New Face(s):
Sean Avery
Fabian Brunnström
I hate this guy! But so does every fan of every team he doesn't play for. He's an agitator with speed and more then a little skill. I think the most frustrating thing about watching him play is that you can imagine an alternative universe in which Avery doesn't annoy anyone and scores 70 points a year. That's not this universe though. Avery does what he does, and not too many can do it any better.
Brunnström is a 23 year old rookie, coming in from the Swedish Elite League and signed as an unrestricted free agent. It is tough to say what this guy is going to be capable of. He has the recommendation of Hakkan Loob though... oh and he does things like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQi8tS3wric&feature=related
The Offense:
You Want to Draft:
Mike Ribiero
Brad Richards
Brendan Morrow
Did I really put Mike Ribiero first? Yea but don't read into it too much. I'm wearing an LA Kings shirt right now just cause its comfy and yellow. I like yellow. See I'm unpredictable. Ribiero had a really spectacularly good season. 27 goals and 56 assists on 107 shots. Just wow. Ribiero has never done anything like this before and might not ever do anything like it again. Mike was over a point a game (well over when you consider that he only played 76 games) and it will be tough to match that pace this year. Adjust him down to about 75 points. He should remain a significant plus and continue to clean up on the powerplay so drafting him should be a fairly good call... assuming you can make those shots up somewhere else. Other than me, and by implication you, no one is going to believe in Ribiero this year so you might be able to steal a near point a game player LATE in the draft.
FACT: Ribiero remained hot in the playoffs, leading the Stars in points scored with 17 through 18 games.
Richards is probably the best hockey player on this team. I made kind of a habit of bashing the guy for the last couple of seasons (I didn't draft him in the 91 point year and then out of spite wished and predicted his poor years after same) but I think he's a spectacular hockey player that was stuck in a bad situation in Tampa. Its sad that he had to leave in order for the situation to improve but these are the realities of a salary cap driven world. Despite his Conn Smythe, Vinny was the face of that franchise... but Richards was the heart. Expect high 70's in points, WAY more shots then Ribiero(like 3 times as many), similar power play numbers, similar plus and similar lack of PIM. Essentially they will be the same player except Richards will probably put up slightly more points and a TON more shots. Draft him several rounds earlier.
FACT: Richards had 11 points in 12 games with Dallas last season and an additional 15 points in 18 playoff games. He seems to like his new surroundings.
Morrow is legitimate power forward. He will be a threat for between 70 and 80 points this year, he'll be a plus, and he will net you somewhere between 100 and 150 PIM while getting high 20's to low 30's production in powerplay points. Put into English, the guy does a LOT of everything for you. And he's a left wing! Think Shanahan in his 30's, minus about 50 shots, and you have a pretty good idea of what you're getting with Morrow.
FACT: Like all of Dallas' big guns, Morrow saw about 20 minutes of ice time per game. They are not afraid to play their superstars in Big D.
You Want to Keep an Eye on:
Sean Avery
Fabian Brunnstrom
Jere Lehtinen
Mike Modano
Avery is a threat to score 50 points and get 200 PIM. That makes him valuable, regardless of the fact that he gets no powerplay time and only takes about 150 or so shots. He is a very very rare commodity. How rare? Only two people ranked ahead of Avery in PIM had more points then he did last year, Phaneuf with 60 points and Hartnell with 43. Avery only had 33 points... but he only played in 57 games. If you need PIM and want production you don't get too many better options than the pest.
FACT: Avery's style of play does make him injury (and suspension) prone. Be warned.
There isn't much that I'm qualified to say about Brunnstrom, other then what has been mentioned above. He's probably a very good sleeper candidate. If he shows any promise he will end up with one of Dallas' three talented centers. See how he does and be prepared to pounce. He could be a good consolation prize if you miss out on the Stamkos sweepstakes.
FACT: Like the earlier video? Check out the greatest hits... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfRkAnRUgfI. I don't know if he's good or if the Swedish goalies are just really bad.
Lehtinen and Modano both managed to keep themselves relevant for at least one more season last year. Lehtinen in particular was on his way to a fantastic season with 37 points in 48 games before getting injured. Both players are still fantasy relevant, if for nothing else then for their scoring spurts. Keep an eye on them, but I don't know that you need to draft either.
FACT: Modano is one of those rare players that will play his entire career on the same franchise, starting with the Stars WAY back when they were the Minnesota North Stars and wore much much cooler jerseys.
The Defense
You Want to Draft:
Philippe Boucher
Sergei Zubov
At 35 and 38 Boucher and Zubov are the Danny Gloverss to the rest of the D's Mel Gibson, and incidentally the only members of Dallas's D corps old enough to get that reference. The age started to show last season as both missed significant time to injury. No clear successors emerged in their absence so both should still be drafted as the offensive powerhouses they are capable of being. Just remember, once the engine starts to break down it tends to keep doing so.
Boucher is one of my ideal d-men. He can get you between 40 and 50 points, 70 and 100 PIM, 150-200 shots and spend some time on the powerplay. I like my d-men to do a bit of everything, to make up for high point producing low specialty category producing forwards. Unfortunately his injury problems are not limited to last season... so buyer beware.
FACT: Boucher was always an offensive threat in his junior hockey career and was drafted in the first round by the Buffalo Sabers. He is great when healthy.
In contrast, Zubov has maintained a pretty consistent level of greatness throughout his career. Rarely injured, Zubov has been one of the cornerstones of the Dallas powerplay since 2007-2008. Ten years ladies and gentleman. That's a heck of a run. The dreaded "sports hernia" caught up with him last season however. I would expect Sergei to be ready to go this season, I'd just monitor his health. He should still be an offensive force to be reckoned with and should be drafted as such. He will get you everything except for PIM.
FACT: The new NHL has helped Zubov immensely. He scored 71 points in 05-06 and 54 in 06-07. Last season he had already notched 35 points in 46 games before going down to injury.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Matt Niskanen
Niskanen isn't really seeing powerplay time yet, but that could change with one injury. Last season he was a +22 and scored 26 points... at the age of 21. There is a lot of promise in Niskanen, drafted in the 1st round by Dallas in 2005. Keep an eye on him and don't hesitate to grab him if one of the two aging wonders go down.
FACT: Niskanen actually slowed significantly after the all star break, scoring only 7 of his 26 points in the last portion of the season. This could mean any number of things, but is likely attributable to the rigors of a full NHL season wearing on him and also to the Stars renewed commitment to defense as the playoff push heated up.
The Powerplay:
Mike Ribiero
Brendan Morrow
Brad Richards
Sergei Zubov
Philippe Boucher
Richards actually didn't see a whole lot of powerplay time after his arrival in Dallas, likely because at that point in the season Dallas' powerplay was clicking and had been playing well together for most of the year. His powerplay time increased in the postseason however. Ribiero made himself something of a powerplay specialist last year, particularly in the playoffs where he scored 11 of his 17 points on the man advantage.
The Goalie(s):
Turco gets his chance to shine. "The other Marty" put up great postseason numbers last year, keeping them in almost every game and finally shaking that monkey off his back. With Smith gone Turco's minutes will go up, and so will his win totals. Turco's numbers may never reach their pre-lockout greatness, but he is a dependable netminder on a strong defensive team.
The Verdict:
Dallas is a very well put together team. They are built to counterattack and to beat their teams into submission with strong physical and defensive play. In my opinion they are the best team in the West not named the Red Wings... at least this year. Dallas also presents you with many "well-rounded" fantasy options in Morrow, Boucher, and Richards. Draft Richards, Morrow, Boucher, Zubov, Turco, and Ribiero with confidence.
TEAM PREVIEWS: SAN JOSE SHARKS
With a fair amount of uncertainty swirling over a majority of the remaining Eastern Conference teams we turn our attention West for a bit, to talk about many of the perennial Stanley Cup Favorites. We start with the Titans of Teal, the San Jose Sharks.
Introduction:
What are 51, 54, 37? No... they're not the numbers from lost, they are Joe Thornton's powerplay stats for the last 3 years. You might notice the gigantic leap downward that they took last season. 41, 30, 15...Cheechoo's numbers on the powerplay for the last 3 years. 44, 37, 26... Marleau's. It was a team wide problem.
Now, its unfair to blame this spiral on the recently departed Matt Carle. To begin with he was just 23 last season. He couldn't possibly, by himself, have been responsible for the decline of San Jose's powerplay. However trading him to Tampa Bay was just one of the steps the organization took to correct this glaring problem. Gone is coach Ron Wilson, having been given the "Stanley or Bust" ultimatum prior to the playoffs. Recently arrived are Dan Boyle, one of the premier powerplay quarterbacks in today's game, and Rob Blake, one of the premier offensive defenseman for the last decade or so.
Though much of the lineup remains the same, expect San Jose to sport a vastly different look this season, both on the man advantage and at even strength.
Key Departures:
Matt Carle
Carle is a competent offensive defenseman. He may blossom into a good one given time and some tutelage. He wasn't going to get either on this team. It is best for both sides that he was given the old heave-ho. At least they sent him some place warm.
New Face(s):
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake
Now we are talking. The front office saw what happened after Campbell arrived last season and, realizing he was not resigning, went out and replaced him. Jeez did they ever replace him. The double threat of Blake and Boyle on the point is going to make for a DEADLY powerplay unit. The loss of Carle might hurt in the long run but these are moves made for RIGHT NOW. In the very very competitive Western Conference we'll see how they play out.
The Offense:
San Jose's offense is a mixed bag. There is a lot of talent on this team, but much depends on the line combinations. Cheechoo's value disappears almost entirely if he is not on Thornton's line. Michalek gets quiet without Joe as well. You will want to monitor who is playing where as the season progresses, particularly if new coach Todd McLellan shows the same penchant for shuffling lines as his predecessor.
You Want to Draft
Joe Thornton
Patrick Marleau
Milan Michalek
Thornton doesn't shoot enough. He doesn't get enough goals and he is no longer going to get north of 70 PIM in a season. However, he is usually a significant plus, usually scores a ridiculous number of points on the powerplay and will almost single-handedly take care of the assists category for you. Boyle is going to do wonders for him on the powerplay and vice versa. 100 + points for Jumbo Joe look like a safe bet.
FACT: 12 of Thornton's 29 goals came in the last 20 games of the season, after Brian Campbell arrived. Expect similar production with Boyle and Blake on board.
Marleau was AWFUL last season. I don't want to be the guy that says "He's too good for that and therefore that must change this year." I've always felt that was a cop-out. Last season, it oftentimes seemed like Marleau was on the outs with coach Ron Wilson. Marleau has seen significant dips in playing time for the last two seasons. After averaging nearly twenty minutes two seasons ago, Marleau's average ice time now circles around 18. Still good but vastly decreased. Furthermore Marleau was consistently rumored to be on the trading block. The coaching change should do Marleau some good. Expect him to rise back to around 70ish points this season. All that and possible left wing eligibility make Marleau an easy recommendation for me to make.
FACT: Marleau was drafted second overall in 1997. The first pick that year... was Joe Thornton.
Michalek's point totals took a dive last season but many of his secondary stats, including ice time, improved. Michalek will play on Joe's wing and will see a good amount of powerplay time as well. Expect his numbers to climb back into the mid 60's, good territory for a left wing.
FACT: Michalek's shots, one of his less spectacular categories, jumped along with his ice time last season to 233... perfectly respectable.
You Want to Watch
Jonathan Cheechoo
Ryane Clowe
Devin Setoguchi
The most important question with Cheechoo is has the bleeding stopped? Cheechoo came on pretty strong after the all star break, scoring 21 of his 37 points there. Do I think there is talent here? Yes. Do I think he'll likely start the season on a line with Michalek and Thornton? Yes. So how can I not recommend that you draft him? You really shouldn't draft him where you'll have to. Despite a massive decline a season ago, Cheechoo STILL went 22nd overall on average last year, even if that dips to like 44th... 50th... I think there are better options out there at RW then a guy who has seen ALL of his stats dip season after season.
The other reason I put Cheechoo here is that he is generally a very slow starter. You'll get a lot more value out of him by trading for him a month or two into the season. Trust me. My team was called "The Cheechoo Train" last year. This is tough for me too.
FACT: Cheechoo took 317 shots in 05-06 but only 220 in 07-08.
Clowe signed a one year deal with the Sharks in the off-season. Clowe is skilled, he had 34 points in 58 games with the Sharks in 06-07. He's got a lot to prove and is playing for a big contract. Expect big things.
FACT: After missing most of the season to injury and various personal issues, Clowe had 9 points in 13 games in the postseason last year. That was second only to Joe Thornton.
Setoguchi is a highly regarded offensive prospect. He was drafted 8th Overall in 2005 and spent 44 games up with the big club last year. He exploded out of the gate with 7 goals and an assist in his first 9 games before slowing down significantly thereafter. Setoguchi's time will come however. He is almost guarateed a spot on the team this year. What he will do with it is any one's guess.
FACT: The Sharks have confidence in Setoguchi. He played in every one of their playoff games last season.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake
You've seen both of their names all over this piece so this should come as no surprise.
Boyle is going to be very very good on this team. A return to the 63 point performance of a year ago without the pesky plus/minus issues that come with being a Tampa Bay player seems all but guaranteed. 40 points on the powerplay? 50? What is the ceiling? I would say high 40's. Make no mistake, Boyle's addition makes this a very high powered offense.
FACT: Don't worry about Boyle as an injury risk. All of the problems he faced last season were of the freak non-recurring variety. As long as San Jose has invested in some blade covers for Boyle's skates when they are hanging in the locker room everything should be fine.
Blake is no slouch. He too should now be free of the plus-minus issues he's suffered the last few seasons in LA. I expect a return to the mid-40's in points with a majority of that coming on the man advantage is about Blake's ceiling. Blake still has an absolute cannon of a shot and will be a great partner for Boyle on the powerplay.
FACT: Blake gets PIM too! Draft him as your second or third defenseman and enjoy.
The Powerplay:
Joe Thornton
Patrick Marleau
Milan Michalek/Jonathan Cheechoo
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake
I am, as you may have guessed from my rankings, right now betting that Michalek will get the principal first unit time. I imagine he and Cheechoo will trade off duties, but should Cheechoo somehow win the majority of the time... well that's why I said you should watch him. This is going to be a deadly efficient powerplay... expect everyone who is on the first unit to see increases in their numbers as a result.
The Goalie(s):
Evgeni Nabakov is going to be drafted very early in most leagues this year and with good reason. He has no competition for his job and was nominated for his first Vezina last season along with Henrik Lundqvist and Martin Brodeur. Moreover he finally broke his habit of posting one good season and then following it up with an absolute stinker. Nabakov doesn't give you the save percentage that some other goalies will get you, but he will more than make up for that with his GAA and wins.
The Verdict:
The Pacific Division may just be the most competitive division in hockey this year, hosting three solid cup contenders in Anaheim, San Jose and Dallas. San Jose and Dallas are the two best teams in this division. Its going to be a dog fight but you should expect San Jose to still be air born come playoff time.
Introduction:
What are 51, 54, 37? No... they're not the numbers from lost, they are Joe Thornton's powerplay stats for the last 3 years. You might notice the gigantic leap downward that they took last season. 41, 30, 15...Cheechoo's numbers on the powerplay for the last 3 years. 44, 37, 26... Marleau's. It was a team wide problem.
Now, its unfair to blame this spiral on the recently departed Matt Carle. To begin with he was just 23 last season. He couldn't possibly, by himself, have been responsible for the decline of San Jose's powerplay. However trading him to Tampa Bay was just one of the steps the organization took to correct this glaring problem. Gone is coach Ron Wilson, having been given the "Stanley or Bust" ultimatum prior to the playoffs. Recently arrived are Dan Boyle, one of the premier powerplay quarterbacks in today's game, and Rob Blake, one of the premier offensive defenseman for the last decade or so.
Though much of the lineup remains the same, expect San Jose to sport a vastly different look this season, both on the man advantage and at even strength.
Key Departures:
Matt Carle
Carle is a competent offensive defenseman. He may blossom into a good one given time and some tutelage. He wasn't going to get either on this team. It is best for both sides that he was given the old heave-ho. At least they sent him some place warm.
New Face(s):
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake
Now we are talking. The front office saw what happened after Campbell arrived last season and, realizing he was not resigning, went out and replaced him. Jeez did they ever replace him. The double threat of Blake and Boyle on the point is going to make for a DEADLY powerplay unit. The loss of Carle might hurt in the long run but these are moves made for RIGHT NOW. In the very very competitive Western Conference we'll see how they play out.
The Offense:
San Jose's offense is a mixed bag. There is a lot of talent on this team, but much depends on the line combinations. Cheechoo's value disappears almost entirely if he is not on Thornton's line. Michalek gets quiet without Joe as well. You will want to monitor who is playing where as the season progresses, particularly if new coach Todd McLellan shows the same penchant for shuffling lines as his predecessor.
You Want to Draft
Joe Thornton
Patrick Marleau
Milan Michalek
Thornton doesn't shoot enough. He doesn't get enough goals and he is no longer going to get north of 70 PIM in a season. However, he is usually a significant plus, usually scores a ridiculous number of points on the powerplay and will almost single-handedly take care of the assists category for you. Boyle is going to do wonders for him on the powerplay and vice versa. 100 + points for Jumbo Joe look like a safe bet.
FACT: 12 of Thornton's 29 goals came in the last 20 games of the season, after Brian Campbell arrived. Expect similar production with Boyle and Blake on board.
Marleau was AWFUL last season. I don't want to be the guy that says "He's too good for that and therefore that must change this year." I've always felt that was a cop-out. Last season, it oftentimes seemed like Marleau was on the outs with coach Ron Wilson. Marleau has seen significant dips in playing time for the last two seasons. After averaging nearly twenty minutes two seasons ago, Marleau's average ice time now circles around 18. Still good but vastly decreased. Furthermore Marleau was consistently rumored to be on the trading block. The coaching change should do Marleau some good. Expect him to rise back to around 70ish points this season. All that and possible left wing eligibility make Marleau an easy recommendation for me to make.
FACT: Marleau was drafted second overall in 1997. The first pick that year... was Joe Thornton.
Michalek's point totals took a dive last season but many of his secondary stats, including ice time, improved. Michalek will play on Joe's wing and will see a good amount of powerplay time as well. Expect his numbers to climb back into the mid 60's, good territory for a left wing.
FACT: Michalek's shots, one of his less spectacular categories, jumped along with his ice time last season to 233... perfectly respectable.
You Want to Watch
Jonathan Cheechoo
Ryane Clowe
Devin Setoguchi
The most important question with Cheechoo is has the bleeding stopped? Cheechoo came on pretty strong after the all star break, scoring 21 of his 37 points there. Do I think there is talent here? Yes. Do I think he'll likely start the season on a line with Michalek and Thornton? Yes. So how can I not recommend that you draft him? You really shouldn't draft him where you'll have to. Despite a massive decline a season ago, Cheechoo STILL went 22nd overall on average last year, even if that dips to like 44th... 50th... I think there are better options out there at RW then a guy who has seen ALL of his stats dip season after season.
The other reason I put Cheechoo here is that he is generally a very slow starter. You'll get a lot more value out of him by trading for him a month or two into the season. Trust me. My team was called "The Cheechoo Train" last year. This is tough for me too.
FACT: Cheechoo took 317 shots in 05-06 but only 220 in 07-08.
Clowe signed a one year deal with the Sharks in the off-season. Clowe is skilled, he had 34 points in 58 games with the Sharks in 06-07. He's got a lot to prove and is playing for a big contract. Expect big things.
FACT: After missing most of the season to injury and various personal issues, Clowe had 9 points in 13 games in the postseason last year. That was second only to Joe Thornton.
Setoguchi is a highly regarded offensive prospect. He was drafted 8th Overall in 2005 and spent 44 games up with the big club last year. He exploded out of the gate with 7 goals and an assist in his first 9 games before slowing down significantly thereafter. Setoguchi's time will come however. He is almost guarateed a spot on the team this year. What he will do with it is any one's guess.
FACT: The Sharks have confidence in Setoguchi. He played in every one of their playoff games last season.
The Defense:
You Want to Draft:
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake
You've seen both of their names all over this piece so this should come as no surprise.
Boyle is going to be very very good on this team. A return to the 63 point performance of a year ago without the pesky plus/minus issues that come with being a Tampa Bay player seems all but guaranteed. 40 points on the powerplay? 50? What is the ceiling? I would say high 40's. Make no mistake, Boyle's addition makes this a very high powered offense.
FACT: Don't worry about Boyle as an injury risk. All of the problems he faced last season were of the freak non-recurring variety. As long as San Jose has invested in some blade covers for Boyle's skates when they are hanging in the locker room everything should be fine.
Blake is no slouch. He too should now be free of the plus-minus issues he's suffered the last few seasons in LA. I expect a return to the mid-40's in points with a majority of that coming on the man advantage is about Blake's ceiling. Blake still has an absolute cannon of a shot and will be a great partner for Boyle on the powerplay.
FACT: Blake gets PIM too! Draft him as your second or third defenseman and enjoy.
The Powerplay:
Joe Thornton
Patrick Marleau
Milan Michalek/Jonathan Cheechoo
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake
I am, as you may have guessed from my rankings, right now betting that Michalek will get the principal first unit time. I imagine he and Cheechoo will trade off duties, but should Cheechoo somehow win the majority of the time... well that's why I said you should watch him. This is going to be a deadly efficient powerplay... expect everyone who is on the first unit to see increases in their numbers as a result.
The Goalie(s):
Evgeni Nabakov is going to be drafted very early in most leagues this year and with good reason. He has no competition for his job and was nominated for his first Vezina last season along with Henrik Lundqvist and Martin Brodeur. Moreover he finally broke his habit of posting one good season and then following it up with an absolute stinker. Nabakov doesn't give you the save percentage that some other goalies will get you, but he will more than make up for that with his GAA and wins.
The Verdict:
The Pacific Division may just be the most competitive division in hockey this year, hosting three solid cup contenders in Anaheim, San Jose and Dallas. San Jose and Dallas are the two best teams in this division. Its going to be a dog fight but you should expect San Jose to still be air born come playoff time.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
