Monday, August 18, 2008

Sundown for Sundin?

So let me start today by sending my best out to Timothy Rafferty and Jessica Troshane for becoming Timothy and Jessica Rafferty this weekend. I've known Tim for, about 12 years now and he's always struck me as the kind that should be allowed to marry and breed and raise children because... well Tim is pretty fantastic. Luckily Jess is equally fantastic if not moreso. I wish them the absolute best.

One thing has always amazed me about weddings, (Cue Clue sound bite: "One thing??") and that is the ability of two people to make a decision with such lasting consequences and which, if everything goes right, pushes their life in a completely different direction. Now its not that I'm afraid of marriage, I'm really not ask any of my ex's, its just that I haven't been able to decide what I'm having for breakfast this morning and its starting to get to the point where I might skip the meal entirely. Have you ever tried to decide what you're eating with someone else? Unless you both just instinctively agree on pizza its usually a long drawn out process right?

Now instead of the "to pie or not to pie" decision imagine coming home and saying "hey baby... wanna commit ourselves to each other for the rest of our lives to have and to hold... yada yada yada?" I mean wow. Thats a decision rivaling what you want to put ON your pizza you know? So congratulations to Tim and Jess for knowing what they want on their pizzas without ever asking and for always always getting the garlic knots.

Which brings me... to Mats Sundin. Ok... I know Joe Sakic hasn't decided what he's doing yet either but his decision only affects one team, which makes it much less interesting to write about. At last report there were reportedly six teams interested in the Savvy Swede's services this season: The New York Rangers, The Vancouver Canucks, The Montreal Canadiens, The Philadelphia Flyers, The Toronto Maple Leafs and a Mystery Opponent.

A few days into free agency word was leaked that Vancouver had offered Sundin a 2 year ten million dollar a year deal. Presumably so the Vancouver fans would know that the front office was trying to make them feel better about their jersey purchases.

Sundin quickly said that he had accepted no deal and that he was taking some time to decide what the next step was. Now I can't blame Sundin for taking his time, particularly considering that it would appear retirement IS on the table for Mats, but the indecision is killing all of us that follow the sport. It is particularly magnified from a fantasy perspective because, well, to put it mildly, Mats is good. So good in fact that wherever he goes he will continue to produce at at least a point a game pace and will likely elevate his wingers in a similar fashion. So you can see how if you're... say a fantasy hockey blogger... the proposition that Mats Sundin could either retire or go to one of six teams, one of whom you aren't even allowed to know could drive you kind of batty... particularly if said blogger is in the middle of Team Previews which he has delayed numerous times in order to see if Mr. Sundin would make a decision.

I am not paralyzed like Mats though. I have the ability to speculate, one of the most valued tools of sportswriters the world around. So today, I'm going to open the discussion of WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF... Mats Sundin decides to go to one of the 5 teams we KNOW have shown an interest and also discuss the likelihood of such a move. Ready? Here we go.

The Toronto Maple Leafs:
The hometown hero returns? Well that has to be what Maple Leafs fans are hoping for. There is certainly room under the cap for Toronto to bring back Mats and Sundin has to be comfortable with the city and the fans. But how likely is this move? Sundin's reticence to sign anywhere this summer has to be believed to be, in large part, due to the way he was treated by Toronto near the end of the season and the response he received when he refused to waive his no trade clause. As such, I would imagine a return to the Leafs to be a long shot. There's a lot of bad blood here.

Should Mats return to the Leafs the immediate beneficiaries would be Antropov and Blake, his likely linemates, as well as Kaberle and Kubina, who will likely split powerplay time if and when McCabe packs his suntan lotion and heads to South Florida.

The New York Rangers:
The Rangers absolutely cannot under any circumstances sign Mats Sundin. They don't have the cap space, unless Mats is going to take a Shanahan discount, and their top three centers are pretty much written in on the board in permanent marker for the next 5 years or so. But speculation is the name of the game so lets figure out how lines would break down with Mr. Sundin's arrival?

Sundin and Naslund have played together on the world stage in the Olympics, so Naslund is the most obvious candidate to play on Sundin's left. The RW almost doesn't matter at this point but fellow countryman Sjostrom and Russian Rocket Zherdev would likely both get tryouts there. Gomez is moved to second line duty and either Drury or Dubinsky converts to play on his wing.

Its an interesting scenario, and one which would also probably lead to significant deals having to be made by the Rangers to free up cap space, but not one which is likely to happen. When Sundin said it was going to take some time to make his decision the Rangers made their decision by committing their cap space to Redden and Naslund. I don't see any significant moves being made by the Rangers on Sundin's behalf.

The Philadelphia Flyers:
Why? A recent addition to the Sundin sweepstakes, the Flyers stand to gain the least by signing the talented Swede. In fact one could argue that unlike any of the teams on this list the Flyers would actually hurt themselves with this signing. Briere is a center. Period. Bringing in Sundin would only limit the playing time of Philadelphia's two young studs Mike Richards and Jeff Carter.

If Sundin does go to the black and orange however I would imagine his wingers would be... lets guess a gritty guy on his left like Hartnell and a skill guy on his right like Lupul or Upshall. Philly is lacking on wingers with experience and what remains would likely find their way to Briere's wing, leaving Carter and Richards, the future of this franchise, without anyone to play with. I think that the addition of Sundin would be a step backwards for this young upcoming franchise.

The Montreal Canadiens:
Now this move I like. The Canadiens have the space and presumably the funds to make this work. Sundin nicely fills the number 1 center role, allowing Koivu and Plekanec to center lines 2 and 3. The Canadiens have 4, can't miss left wingers in the Kostitsyn's (specifically Andrei) Higgins and Tanguay and at least 2 solid right wings to work with when it comes to line pairings. The addition of Sundin strengthens rather then weakens this team.

Too much to play with here to predict a line combination but could you imagine Sundin to Kovalev on the powerplay? Disgusting.

The Vancouver Canucks:
Is it that hard to get people to play in Vancouver? If someone offered me 2o million dollars to do something I hated for 2 years in their city I'd be all over it. Ah... but there's the matter of a Stanley Cup isn't there? Mats wants one before he leaves (which is another reason why I'd disqualify The Leafs from this discussion as well) and that makes things a bit more tricky.

The thing is... I think Sundin really is the missing piece for this franchise. Line 1 right now stands to be the Sedins and Bernier. Good line, maybe a great line. Sundin comes in and suddenly line 2 is he Demitra and Wellwood, with whom Sundin has had good chemistry. Line three is Kesler, Shannon, Pyatt and hey...suddenly you've got a pretty balanced scoring attack in front of decent D and one of the best goalies in the league. The trick of course is getting Sundin to see it that way... and judging by the fact that he has yet to take the money and skate I'm beginning to doubt that he will.

So...

Best Fit:
Vancouver

Most Likely:
Montreal

Least Likely:
New York

Guesses on the mystery sixth team... god I wish it was the Devils but I know it isn't. I'd say Los Angeles, Colorado and Phoenix have all shown interest. Beyond that I think it goes into a realm of speculation that I'm not prepared to enter. So ...thoughts?

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