TEAM PREVIEWS: THE NEW JERSEY DEVILS

Introduction:
Death... Taxes... Marty Brodeur winning 38 or more games. These are the things you can take to the bank. Unfortunately Brodeur is one of the few Devils that are definitely fantasy relevant this season.

The Devils are entering an interesting time in their development as a team. Slowly but surely the prospects that they have built up have disappeared into free agency or steadily lost relevance. Nowhere is this felt more strongly then at D where the Devils continue to struggle. Thankfully for the franchise they still have a world class goalie between the pipes. Barring any significant changes(I hear Mathieu Schneider is still available for trade) the Devils will have another low-scoring, high winning season that will lead to a challenging post season.

Key Departures:
Sergei Brylin

Not that his production will be missed, he had 16 points in 82 games last year, but Sarge has been a part of this team since 1994-95 (and he almost never played a full season until the last 4 years). One wonders what kind of a career the talented Russian might have had without being plagued by injury. We'll miss you Sarge.

New (old) Faces:
Brian Rolston
Bobby Holik

Rolston was a very good addition by this team. He sort of, in a backdoor kind of way, takes care of their biggest problem on defense, which was that they didn't have a defenseman who could play the point on the powerplay.

Holik... like I said in my earlier column don't draft him, but he'll be a fine fourth line center on this team. This team is set up to have two scoring lines, the Madden line and the Holik line this year. Offensively that's an entire scoring line better then what they usually have.

The Offense:

This truly is an interchangeable flock of forwards. Natural left wings play center. Natural centers play left wing. Rolston, a left handed shot, plays right wing. This team has always been built around adaptation, the ability to give their team a fresh look every night to throw off the expectations of the opposition. As such its somewhat tricky to say what the line combinations are going to be. Best guesses tells me Line 1 will be centered by Parise and feature Elias on his left and Rolston on his right. That's a very good line. Line 2 will likely have Zajac centering Gionta and Zubrus. Line 3 is your traditional Madden, Pandolfo and Langenbrunner lineup, followed by Holik, Rupp and Clarkson... and thats your team at the start of the season I would bet.

You want to draft:
Brian Rolston
Zach Parise
Patrik Elias

Rolston has been trending down some in the last year or so. Three years ago he scored 70 points. 2 years ago he scored 64 and last year he scored only 59. However his powerplay production for those same three years looked like this, 32, 34, 28. Rolston is still a speedy right winger at the age of 35 and should see plenty of powerplay time on this team as Paul Martin continues to struggle in his role of quarterback with the man advantage. Rolston's best may be behind him but considering that he not only contributes in powerplay points but also in shots (which have been south of 280 only once since 2000-2001) he is a valuable asset as a fantasy winger. Most "new" Devils tend to see their offensive numbers dip a bit, but Rolston is coming to NJ from Minnesota, a team that under former Devils coach Jacques Lemaire has been almost as offensively restricted as the Devils. Expect a 60 point season from Rolston with over 250 shots and at least 25 powperplay points.
FACT: Brian Rolston was drafted 11th by the New Jersey Devils in the 1991 entry draft and was part of the Devils first Stanley Cup.

Parise's 65 points last year were something of a disappointment. Bear in mind however that Parise scored 44 of those points in a 48 game span prior to the all star break before dramatically cooling after it. At 24 Parise is still adjusting to the big game, I expect him to be a far more complete player this year. Parise has got hands. He still needs to fill out some and put some more muscle on his 5'11" frame, but he's got the mind of a goal scorer. With another full season under his belt, and a legitimate threat playing with him on the powerplay in Rolston, expect Parise's numbers to go up again this season to about 74 points.
FACT: J.P. Parise, Zach's father, was also a successful player in the NHL, playing most of his career with Minnesota North Stars and New York Islanders.

Elias is something of a conundrum to me. He still has the legs and the moves but it would seem to me that his hands are gone. Elias consistently averaged double digits in shooting percentage until the last two seasons, when he hasn't been able to crack 8%. A lot of people are quick to blame this on his bout with Hepatitis A during the lockout season of 04-05. Its not that simple. If you look at his numbers from 05-06 after his return, they are phenomenal. Elias scored 45 points in 38 games and had a shooting percentage of 11.3. His SP then immediately dropped three whole percentage points the year after that. I don't think Elias' 55 points last year were an aberration, I do believe however that his powerplay points and overall point totals will improve as a result of Rolston's arrival. A 60 + point left winger with 260+ shots and 25 + points on the powerplay is what I think Elias will be this year Just keep his decline in mind and deal him early if he continues to fall.
FACT: Elias is notoriously inconsistent. Here's some numbers for you. 37, 50, 72, 96, 61, 57, 82. Those are Elias's point totals between 98-99 and 03-04. All of those are more or less full seasons. So... with that in mind... why don't you tell me what he's capable of because I'm stumped.

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Travis Zajac
Brian Gionta

I see this being a nice stabilizing year for Zajac. He was asked to do too much too soon on offense last year, but in almost his third full season in the NHL the Devils should learn whether Zajac is the force they think he is or just another role player.
FACT: Zajac played only two games in the Devils minor league system before coming to the big club. He is a highly regarded prospect and first round draft pick.

Brian Gionta... had a rough year without Scott Gomez. Only two seasons removed from a 48 goal 89 point season, Gionta finds himself in a bit of a career slump. Unable to even crack 30 goals in the two seasons since his breakout campaign one has to wonder if the diminutive winger has anything left in the tank or if the grind of the NHL has taken it out of him. I'm not saying he can't return to form this year, I hope he does, but I wouldn't count on it. Watch him early and then try to steal him in a trade, as I'm sure he will be drafted in most leagues. Don't be the one to make that mistake.
FACT: Gionta has never come within 20 goals or 30 points of his breakout season.

The Defense:

You Want to Draft:
Paul Martin

Martin isn't a great offensive defenseman, but he is the best and only one this team currently has. As such certain duties are going to fall upon him, most significantly playing on the other side of the point to Rolston on the powerplay. He is a fifth or bench defenseman, but still worth the draft pick. I think he matured a lot as the year went on last year and he should remain a plus, but I don't see his point totals going much north of 35.
FACT: Martin, if last year is any indicator, will justify your draft pick with his +20.
You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Johnny Oduya

Oduya had a breakout campaign last year, for a defenseman that was drafted in the 7th round by Washington in 2001. Oduya had 26 points and was a +27. The +27 is a bit of a surprise to me as Oduya is not the greatest defensive defenseman. In fact his forays into the neutral zone and beyond have often led to costly defensive mistakes. I would keep an eye on him as at 26 it is still entirely possible that there is another level in there somewhere. Don't expect a repeat of the +27 though.
FACT: Want a very good reason not to draft Oduya? He only took 63 shots on goal in 75 games last season.

The Powerplay:

The powerplay will look something like this.

Zach Parise
Patrik Elias
Brian Gionta
Brian Rolston
Paul Martin

The potency of this entire unit was affected by the departure of Gomez and Rafalski last season. Rolston's arrival should replace at least one of those losses. The powerplay should be significantly more effective this season as a result.

The Goalie(s):

Martin Brodeur. Draft him in the first round or not at all. If you haven't heard he's the most consistently spectacular goalie in the sport. There might be a few goalies worth taking before him, but none more dependable then number 30 Martin Brodeur.
FACT: In the past two seasons Brodeur has posted the two best win totals (48 and 44) and the second and third best save percentages (.920 and .922) of his career while posting very respectable GAA's at 2.18 and 2.17. At 36 Marty is actually trending up.

The Verdict:

The Devils will remain competitive this year due largely to the the near heroic play of Martin Brodeur and a slightly improved offense. Draft Brodeur, Parise and Rolston with confidence.