TEAM PREVIEWS: THE NEW YORK RANGERS

With the team previews, I'm going to try to start with the teams that, so far as I can figure, are the most "set" for the season and then work my way towards the more uncertain teams. If anything major should happen to a team I've already covered I'll post an updated Team Preview before the season begins. As they find themselves up against the salary cap wall and with a fairly complete roster I figured we'd start with the Broadway Blueshirts today.

Introduction:

The New York Rangers, perhaps more than any other team in the NHL, are a team in transition. After the lockout this was unquestionably Jaromir Jagr's team. He was surrounded by Jagr-friendly players like Michael Nylander, Martin Straka, Michal Rozsival and even Marek Malik. These players, whether they were the best options or not, played the powerplay with Jagr and worked with other players to get them used to the slow, deliberate cycling and circling style of hockey which Jagr preferred. Let's do a roll call:

Jagr took his puck and went home, choosing to take a huge payday in Russia to end his professional career before likely returning to the Czech Republic to work with his father.
Nylander... gone, starting his second season in Washington
Straka... gone to parts unknown
Malik... waiting to see if a team will sign him as a shootout specialist
;) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADbsezxRXYI

Rozsival is all that remains, because he has proven himself to be a valuable weapon on the powerplay when allowed to use his heavy shot from the point (read when he wasn't on Jagr's unit). When the Rangers signed Drury and Gomez last offseason the writing was on the wall that the days of this being "Jaromir Jagr and the Funky Bunch" were numbered, but I think no one, including the Rangers, expected that transition to happen so soon.

Jagr's departure accelerated the process, and I believe the Rangers have taken advantage of the space freed up under the cap by the departure of Jagr, Avery, Shanahan (most likely), and Straka to put together an altogether different team, and one that is much better suited for the current atmosphere in the NHL.

Key Departures:
Jaromir Jagr
Martin Straka
Brendan Shanahan
Marek Malik
Sean Avery

Of these perhaps the most interesting is Avery. Avery had become something of a celebrity amongst the Garden faithful. His antics, while derided by some, were nevertheless effective. The hope is that this particular incarnation of the Rangers has no room and no need for that kind of showmanship. Whether that is a good assumption or not remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure, They'll miss him in every game they play against their rivals on the other side of the Hudson.

New Faces:

Nikolai Zherdev
Markus Naslund
Wade Redden

There are a couple of others, like Kalinin, but fantasy wise these are your big three to focus on in the draft. To me Zherdev is the most interesting. Thats not to say I don't think Redden is going to have a good year, but you know what he is going to do. Redden is going to get somewhere between 50 and 60 points with a large chunk of them coming on the powerplay, and given the way this team plays he should be a significant plus.

Zherdev is a different story. Columbus appears to have traded Nikolai right as he was figuring it all out. 43 points in 51 games before the all star break tells me that Mr. Zherdev is about ready for prime time. At only 23 years old, Zherdev will get all the ice time in the world to prove that he is worthy of his 4th overall draft spot in the 2003 draft. The Rangers, who are pretty heavy at center and left wing, have a paucity of RW's of which Zherdev is the best. Naslund can play both left and right but is a natural left winger with a lefty shot. His only serious competition at RW then is Petr Prucha, who has settled into his role as net crasher on the third line nicely.

Zherdev and Naslund both are sure things to see some ice time with this teams top two centers, Gomez and Drury. I would conservatively pencil Zherdev in for an upgrade to a 70 point season with some significant powerplay time. Naslund should have a comparable season to his last few, ending up somewhere in the low 60's.

The Offense:

The Rangers offense is an interesting bunch. Its a collection of guys who haven't done it yet or who haven't done it recently centered by extremely talented guys like Gomez and Drury. As such there is a lot of room for sleeper speculation. Is this the year that Prucha scores 30 again? Will Zherdev have an 80 point season? Etc. Let's break down the fantasy names and the fantasy lames.

You Want to Draft:
Scott Gomez
Nikolai Zherdev
Markus Naslund

Gomez and Zherdev are the two most fantasy relevant players on this team at the start of the season. Gomez will be a 70 + point center, making him relevant. As long as you recognize that his 16 goals from last season was not aberationally low. He has played 8 seasons and in only two has he scored more goals then that. In short, Scotty owned an Adam Oates jersey as a kid. You can draft Gomez and comfortably assume 50 plus assists, a surpising number of shots for such a low goal total and around 30 powerplay points. He'll hurt you in goals and PIM but will contribute solidly across all other categories.
FACT: Scott Gomez has had 45 or more assists in 6 of his 8 seasons. We call that so money you can take it to the bank.

Zherdev is on this list for all the reasons listed above. Expect around 70 points, which would for comparisons sake make him about the 11th highest scoring right winger based on last years stats. Zherdev will be a SOLID second Right winger in ten team leagues and a borderline pick for your first right wing.
FACT: Nikolai Zherdev set career highs in assists, plus/minus (at minus 9... but it was Columbus after all) and shots last season.

At 60ish points Naslund should be a solid second left winger on any team. He'll get plenty of powerplay time, he still takes plenty of shots and should be a plus on this team. He even tosses in a solid 40-60 PIM for you. Naslund is an average player at a traditionally tough to fill position.
FACT: Naslund's point totals have declined every year since 2002-2003

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Chris Drury
Brandon Dubinsky
Nigel Dawes

Drury is an interesting pick here. Drury is a hockey god. Hell... he's a sports god. The kid has won at every level and at this level he's got a nose for the net and a penchant for scoring timely goals... and two stanley cups.

He had a slow year, but a lot of that can be attributed to the constantly shifting nature of the Rangers lines for much of the season. This year he should find himself centering some combination of Markus Naslund or the kids. Other than his overall point total there was a lot to like about Drury's year. He had 220 shots (his highest total since 2002-2003) 29 powerplay points (his second highest ever) and continued his knack for timely goals. I put him here because I think with the right linemates he could see his production reach the mid-60's again, and given his powerplay proficiency that makes him an attractive second center.
FACT: Chris Drury pitched his team to victory in the Little League World Series.

Dawes has 29 points in 61 games at left wing last season. His linemates were constantly shifting. He, Prucha, or Dubinsky stand to benefit the most from the departures this season as two of them will receive regular ice time on the top two lines. My favorite for that roll is Dawes. He's fast, he's got a good ice sense, and he's a sniper. I don't think you draft him but the second he starts piling up goals I'd grab him and never look back.
FACT: 18 of Dawes' 29 points came in the 31 games after the all start break. Nigel is trending UP.

There were times last season when Dubinsky was the best player on the ice... and he was on the ice with Jaromir Jagr at most of those times. Dubes has got skills... but given Jagr's departure he is likely to see both his ice time and the skill of his linemates decrease somewhat. However, in 11 playoff games last season Dubinsky chipped in 4 goals and 4 assists, showing that he can do it when it matters. Given his success last year, I think its possible we see the Rangers at least TRY Dubinsky at left wing on one of the top two lines, (perhaps Naslund/Gomez/Zherdev and Dubinsky/Drury/Prucha).
FACT: Dubinsky played in the 2008 NHL Young Stars game (the rookie all star game). He had two goals and an assist and was named the Young Stars MVP.

The Defense:

You want to draft:
Wade Redden
Michal Rozsival

These are your powerplay D-men. In that role last year Rosey was... ok. 38 points with 19 on the powerplay was ... good. What should be noted is that Rozsival's 13 goals were good enough to tie him for 7th amonst defenseman. 38 points is probably a fair expectation for Rosey, making him a solid third defenseman on your team.
FACT: Rozsival has been a PIM monster since joining the Rangers, racking up 90, 52, and 80 PIM in his three seasons as a Blueshirt. These were mostly of the lazy clutch and grab variety, but that doesn't really matter for fantasy now does it?

38 points was also Wade Redden's output last year. Unlike Rozsival this was NOT a good showing for the former all star. Redden has, in his career, been a powerplay specialist, scoring 30 points on the man advantage in in 2005-2006. No less will be expected of him in New York this year and for the next five. Redden's struggles can be explained by many things. He was suffering through the death of his mother last year, he had been asked repeatedly, by a team he had given his entire career to, to wave his no trade clause and finally, he like everyone else, suffered through Ottawa's general state of "Days of our lives"-itus. I expect big things from Redden on this team. He will be expected to be THE man here. A 50 point performance and return to powerplay glory should all be reachable on this "attack first" squad.
FACT: Redden and Michal Rozsival actually shared the NHL's plus-minus award in 2006.

You want to watch:
Marc Staal
Paul Mara

One of these years will be the year Marc Staal breaks out and becomes more then just a very, very solid defender. I don't think this is that year. With Redden and Rozsival locked into long term deals one wonders when that will be.
FACT: In 2005-2006 Marc Staal had 49 points in 57 games with the Sudbury Wolves of OHL and was named the OHL's most outstanding defenseman for the 06-07 season.

Mara's a bit more of an enigma. At this point one has to assume that his two 40+ point seasons in 03-04 and 05-06 were the exceptions and not the rule. Looking a little more deeply though those were the only two season in which Mara was given significant powerplay time, where his heavy, accurate point shot could really do damage. Again, given Rosey's and Redden's place on the depth chart above his, as well as Naslund's significant experience playing point on the powerplay, Mara's chances of getting time on the man advantage will be severely limited. He's worth monitoring though, as if his powerplay time should increase, due to an injury or a miracle, Mara also tends to pitch in some PIM as a bonus for your faith in him.
FACT: Mara has never been more then a +1 for an entire season in his whole career.

The Powerplay:

My best guess at the first unit is:
Scott Gomez
Chris Drury
Nikolai Zherdev
Wade Redden
Markus Naslund (or Rozsival)

Gomez and Drury were a potent pairing on the powerplay in the second half of last season and I expect the Rangers will continue to roll them out together in an, eggs in one basket, strategy.

A second unit could consist of:
Dubinksy
Dawes
Prucha
Rozsival
Staal (or Mara)

This is either frightening or exciting depending upon your confidence in baby Rangers. I like it as a good second unit, though I don't expect a lot of scoring to come from it.

The Goalie(s):

The Rangers are lucky in that unlike most teams in the NHL their net situation is pretty well secure. The King, Henrik Lundqvist, is back for another season between the pipes. Lundqvist delivered respectable numbers in both wins and GAA, coming in 4th and 6th respectively. His save percentage declined for the third straight year however to a .912. .912, while still respectable, is hardly in the elite class his other numbers are and its continued decline is a troubling trend. It should be noted that this may have more to do with the Rangers improvement defensively then with the quality of Hank's starts. Hank started two more games then the year before but faced over 100 fewer shots and allowed the exact same number of goals, 160, as the year before. Considering the Rangers improvement defensively, and Henrik's continued maturity in net he should be considered an elite option in all fantasy formats.
FACT: Lundqvist has played three seasons in the NHL and has been nominated for the Vezina Trophy in all three.

The Verdict:

The Rangers have a rare mix of stability at offense, defense and in net. They will struggle for secondary scoring throughout the year but will still finish with more then enough wins to qualify for the postseason. Jagr's abscence will be felt but will be more than made up for by what is sure to be an exciting, quick hockey team. Draft Lundqvist, Gomez, Zherdev, Naslund and Redden with confidence and keep an eye on Drury and many of the Rangers' youngsters to see who rises to the top. This is going to be a fun team to watch.