TEAM PREVIEWS: SAN JOSE SHARKS

With a fair amount of uncertainty swirling over a majority of the remaining Eastern Conference teams we turn our attention West for a bit, to talk about many of the perennial Stanley Cup Favorites. We start with the Titans of Teal, the San Jose Sharks.

Introduction:

What are 51, 54, 37? No... they're not the numbers from lost, they are Joe Thornton's powerplay stats for the last 3 years. You might notice the gigantic leap downward that they took last season. 41, 30, 15...Cheechoo's numbers on the powerplay for the last 3 years. 44, 37, 26... Marleau's. It was a team wide problem.

Now, its unfair to blame this spiral on the recently departed Matt Carle. To begin with he was just 23 last season. He couldn't possibly, by himself, have been responsible for the decline of San Jose's powerplay. However trading him to Tampa Bay was just one of the steps the organization took to correct this glaring problem. Gone is coach Ron Wilson, having been given the "Stanley or Bust" ultimatum prior to the playoffs. Recently arrived are Dan Boyle, one of the premier powerplay quarterbacks in today's game, and Rob Blake, one of the premier offensive defenseman for the last decade or so.

Though much of the lineup remains the same, expect San Jose to sport a vastly different look this season, both on the man advantage and at even strength.

Key Departures:
Matt Carle

Carle is a competent offensive defenseman. He may blossom into a good one given time and some tutelage. He wasn't going to get either on this team. It is best for both sides that he was given the old heave-ho. At least they sent him some place warm.

New Face(s):
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake

Now we are talking. The front office saw what happened after Campbell arrived last season and, realizing he was not resigning, went out and replaced him. Jeez did they ever replace him. The double threat of Blake and Boyle on the point is going to make for a DEADLY powerplay unit. The loss of Carle might hurt in the long run but these are moves made for RIGHT NOW. In the very very competitive Western Conference we'll see how they play out.

The Offense:

San Jose's offense is a mixed bag. There is a lot of talent on this team, but much depends on the line combinations. Cheechoo's value disappears almost entirely if he is not on Thornton's line. Michalek gets quiet without Joe as well. You will want to monitor who is playing where as the season progresses, particularly if new coach Todd McLellan shows the same penchant for shuffling lines as his predecessor.

You Want to Draft

Joe Thornton
Patrick Marleau
Milan Michalek

Thornton doesn't shoot enough. He doesn't get enough goals and he is no longer going to get north of 70 PIM in a season. However, he is usually a significant plus, usually scores a ridiculous number of points on the powerplay and will almost single-handedly take care of the assists category for you. Boyle is going to do wonders for him on the powerplay and vice versa. 100 + points for Jumbo Joe look like a safe bet.
FACT: 12 of Thornton's 29 goals came in the last 20 games of the season, after Brian Campbell arrived. Expect similar production with Boyle and Blake on board.

Marleau was AWFUL last season. I don't want to be the guy that says "He's too good for that and therefore that must change this year." I've always felt that was a cop-out. Last season, it oftentimes seemed like Marleau was on the outs with coach Ron Wilson. Marleau has seen significant dips in playing time for the last two seasons. After averaging nearly twenty minutes two seasons ago, Marleau's average ice time now circles around 18. Still good but vastly decreased. Furthermore Marleau was consistently rumored to be on the trading block. The coaching change should do Marleau some good. Expect him to rise back to around 70ish points this season. All that and possible left wing eligibility make Marleau an easy recommendation for me to make.
FACT: Marleau was drafted second overall in 1997. The first pick that year... was Joe Thornton.

Michalek's point totals took a dive last season but many of his secondary stats, including ice time, improved. Michalek will play on Joe's wing and will see a good amount of powerplay time as well. Expect his numbers to climb back into the mid 60's, good territory for a left wing.
FACT: Michalek's shots, one of his less spectacular categories, jumped along with his ice time last season to 233... perfectly respectable.

You Want to Watch
Jonathan Cheechoo
Ryane Clowe
Devin Setoguchi

The most important question with Cheechoo is has the bleeding stopped? Cheechoo came on pretty strong after the all star break, scoring 21 of his 37 points there. Do I think there is talent here? Yes. Do I think he'll likely start the season on a line with Michalek and Thornton? Yes. So how can I not recommend that you draft him? You really shouldn't draft him where you'll have to. Despite a massive decline a season ago, Cheechoo STILL went 22nd overall on average last year, even if that dips to like 44th... 50th... I think there are better options out there at RW then a guy who has seen ALL of his stats dip season after season.

The other reason I put Cheechoo here is that he is generally a very slow starter. You'll get a lot more value out of him by trading for him a month or two into the season. Trust me. My team was called "The Cheechoo Train" last year. This is tough for me too.
FACT: Cheechoo took 317 shots in 05-06 but only 220 in 07-08.

Clowe signed a one year deal with the Sharks in the off-season. Clowe is skilled, he had 34 points in 58 games with the Sharks in 06-07. He's got a lot to prove and is playing for a big contract. Expect big things.
FACT: After missing most of the season to injury and various personal issues, Clowe had 9 points in 13 games in the postseason last year. That was second only to Joe Thornton.

Setoguchi is a highly regarded offensive prospect. He was drafted 8th Overall in 2005 and spent 44 games up with the big club last year. He exploded out of the gate with 7 goals and an assist in his first 9 games before slowing down significantly thereafter. Setoguchi's time will come however. He is almost guarateed a spot on the team this year. What he will do with it is any one's guess.
FACT: The Sharks have confidence in Setoguchi. He played in every one of their playoff games last season.

The Defense:

You Want to Draft:
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake

You've seen both of their names all over this piece so this should come as no surprise.

Boyle is going to be very very good on this team. A return to the 63 point performance of a year ago without the pesky plus/minus issues that come with being a Tampa Bay player seems all but guaranteed. 40 points on the powerplay? 50? What is the ceiling? I would say high 40's. Make no mistake, Boyle's addition makes this a very high powered offense.
FACT: Don't worry about Boyle as an injury risk. All of the problems he faced last season were of the freak non-recurring variety. As long as San Jose has invested in some blade covers for Boyle's skates when they are hanging in the locker room everything should be fine.

Blake is no slouch. He too should now be free of the plus-minus issues he's suffered the last few seasons in LA. I expect a return to the mid-40's in points with a majority of that coming on the man advantage is about Blake's ceiling. Blake still has an absolute cannon of a shot and will be a great partner for Boyle on the powerplay.
FACT: Blake gets PIM too! Draft him as your second or third defenseman and enjoy.

The Powerplay:
Joe Thornton
Patrick Marleau
Milan Michalek/Jonathan Cheechoo
Dan Boyle
Rob Blake

I am, as you may have guessed from my rankings, right now betting that Michalek will get the principal first unit time. I imagine he and Cheechoo will trade off duties, but should Cheechoo somehow win the majority of the time... well that's why I said you should watch him. This is going to be a deadly efficient powerplay... expect everyone who is on the first unit to see increases in their numbers as a result.

The Goalie(s):

Evgeni Nabakov is going to be drafted very early in most leagues this year and with good reason. He has no competition for his job and was nominated for his first Vezina last season along with Henrik Lundqvist and Martin Brodeur. Moreover he finally broke his habit of posting one good season and then following it up with an absolute stinker. Nabakov doesn't give you the save percentage that some other goalies will get you, but he will more than make up for that with his GAA and wins.

The Verdict:

The Pacific Division may just be the most competitive division in hockey this year, hosting three solid cup contenders in Anaheim, San Jose and Dallas. San Jose and Dallas are the two best teams in this division. Its going to be a dog fight but you should expect San Jose to still be air born come playoff time.