TEAM PREVIEWS: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

Introduction:

The Penguins began their march to relevance at the beginning of last season with the continued emergence of Evgeni Malkin and the addition of a strong supporting cast in improving Ryan Malone and steady scorer Petr Sykora. Then it was Surf's Up as the Penguins acquired Marian Hossa at the trade deadline and rode the wave all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately their Happy Feet were cooled by a superior Detroit team and now these Penguins find themselves staring once again at a long and daunting march to the playoffs.

Key Departures:
Marian Hossa
Ryan Malone

Hossa has left for Redder pastures, choosing to join the team that knocked the Penguins off last spring. I don't think his departure will have much of an effect on individual Penguins regular season numbers as he only played thirteen games with them last season and most of those while Sid the Kid was injured.

Malone's departure will be felt on the powerplay. He was the grit and they haven't replaced him via free agency and no replacement exists from within.

New Faces:
Miroslav Satan

Satan was a good grab by the Penguins. He doesn't replace any of the things that they lost, but he will provide some good secondary scoring a la Petr Sykora. I wouldn't draft him per se but I would expect a good ten point bump from playing with Crosby and/or Malkin in some capacity. I'll give Satan an outside shot at 20 goals and 35 assists. Like Elias though his shooting percentage took a massive dive last season while taking fewer shots. Be wary. Satan is on the decline.
FACT: Satan had ONE, count it, one 40 goal season all the way back in 98-99 but its the one everyone remembers on draft day.

The Offense:

Here be our first two legitimate superstars in offensive categories. Sid the Kid and Evgeni the Hemi. The rest of the offense is really a mixed bag. The intriguing breakout candidate of Malone is gone, but several other solid options remain.

You Want to Draft:
Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Petr Sykora

Sid. The. Kid. Sidney Crosby only played 53 games last year and he still had 72 points, 173 shots, and 27 powerplay points. Sid is an absolute force. Sid will hit every mark I listed in the Philadelphia Team Preview required to be an elite 6 tool player and he'll absolutely dominate some of those (G, A, PP). Sid slowed down a little bit in some categories last year, and he is absolutely not a 110 PIM guy like he was in his first season anymore. However expect Sid, Ovechkin and Malkin to all be drafted 1, 2 and 3 in just about every league. If you don't have one of those first three picks you are playing catch up.
FACT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Egt-nwZ6Ym8 Gretzky was once asked if anyone stood a chance of breaking his records. He responded, "Yes, Sidney Crosby."

Evgeni Malkin is arguably a more valuable player then Crosby... hear me out. Malkin's goal total last year was higher then any Sid has put up. His overall point total is comparable as are his shots(a few more then Sid), PIM (a few more then Sid), +/- (about the same) and powerplay points (a few less then Sid). Ultimately you're giving up around 20 assists to get 10 goals and eligibility on the wing. Goals are tougher to come by (you'll be able to plug in assist guys LATE in the draft) as are high scoring wings. By this strategy you MIGHT consider taking Malkin or Ovechkin before Sidney, particularly when you consider that the extent of damage to Sid's ankle last season is still unknown. Like I said, in my mind Malkin, Sid, and Ovie go one, two three... its just a question of who is 1.
FACT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZkPn9kjRFE This is why I like these guys. Ovechkin and Malkin are complete players. They play the game hard, fast and physical, the way its meant to be played.

And then, like Bill Christ Jesus' younger brother, here comes the other Penguin I'm recommending. Sykora, like anyone really, pales in comparison to Crosby and Malkin. He is a useful winger though, and due to some of the departures this team has suffered Sykora should see even more time on the powerplay with Sid and Malkin. 65 or so points with a solid 30 coming off the man advantage seems about right for the aging sniper.
FACT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Db2bGQa6oZY Watch around 1:30 for my favorite goal of ALL time. Sykora's still got those hands and he was what made that line work back in the day.

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Jordan Staal
Pascal Dupuis

Staal is only 19. When he was 18 he scored 29 goals in 81 games... a little of that magic disappeared last season as he hit a bit of a sophomore slump (shooting percentage went from 22.1% to 6.6%... ouch) but there is absolutely no one who doesn't believe that he's got a tremendous amount of talent just bubbling beneath the surface. With most of their stars locked into long term deals Pittsburgh would be wise to give Jordan some time on Malkin or Crosby's wing and certainly use him more on the powerplay. Its early in his development but, like Mike Richards, one of these years Staal is just going to explode. Until I see what they are doing with him in training camp I'll be a little less bullish, but I expect a return to at least 20 goal form this year. If he starts picking it up, you should pick him up without hesitation.
FACT: Jordan Staal was the youngest player to EVER score a hat trick, just 153 days after his 18th birthday.

Dupuis? Yes. Dupuis. In 16 games with Pittsburgh last season Dupuis scored 2 goals and added 10 assists, giving him 12 points in only 16 games. That's almost a point a game. He should still be centered by either Crosby or Malkin. I don't see why a 60 point season is impossible for this talented 29 year old. I'm not saying he'll do it either... I'm just saying pay attention.
FACT: Pascal Dupuis has never done anything close to what I'm suggesting he'll do this year, which is why it will be all the more spectacular when he does and I'm right.

The Defense:

You Want to Draft:
Sergei Gonchar

Elite! 12 goals, 53 assists, 46 powerplay points. Other then a guy by the name of Lidstrom this is one of your absolute best choices as a number one defenseman. He plays point on one of the most potent units on the man advantage in the NHL. Grab him quickly.
FACT: Gonchar has had 8 seasons of 50 or more points. 3 of those have come in his three years with Pittsburgh.

DO NOT... UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES... DRAFT...
Ryan Whitney

What? He's good. I know he's good but he's really really hurt.
FACT: Ryan Whitney just underwent ankle surgery (as in last week). Such surgery is best case going to sideline him for 3 months and worst case for 5 months, meaning that it could be January before Whitney hits the ice.

Reader: Thank you Breaking the Trap. I would have made that mistake in my draft.
BTT: You're quite welcome dear reader. Now go forth and tell your friends of my awesomeness.

The Powerplay:

Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Petr Sykora
(mystery Ryan Whitney fill-in to be updated after training camp)
Sergei Gonchar

That will be your unit right there. The Pens have a lot of young d-men and forwards, all of whom should be monitored to see who is getting what opportunities at the beginning of the season. This unit so long as it includes Crosby, Malkin and Gonchar will be absolutely dominant.

The Goalie(s):

Marc Andre Fleury is the presumptive king of the crease in Pittsburgh particularly now that he has signed a 7 year extension. Fleury is at times unbeatable and at times underwhelming and still at other times injured. This team will win its fair share of games however, and the defense won't be as bad as some are speculating. Fleury is a very good option in net should he remain healthy.
FACT: Before the injury Fleury was on his way to having his first season as the goaltender drafted with the first overall pick in 2003. Through 33 starts Fleury had a 2.33 GAA and .921 sv %. The first number is ok, the second is pretty spectacular.

Because of Fleury's injury history it is useful to know who your backup would be. Here Dany Sabourin is will likely fill that role. I don't like Pittsburgh's prospects if he's forced to play regularly... but uh I would have said that about Ty Conklin as well and well.
FACT: Other then GAA Conklin's numbers were equal to Fleury's in about the same number of starts.

The Verdict:

Pittsburgh will be good. Crosby, Malkin et al are too good for them not to be. Draft Crosby and Malkin in the first round, Gonchar amongst the top tier of D-men and Fleury amongst the second tier of goalies. This is a team that is going to compete no matter what.