TEAM PREVIEWS: PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Introduction:
What a difference a year makes huh? Or should I say what a difference a Briere makes? I know he was a minus 22... but really is there any question as to what kind of an impact he had on this team? We've been hearing about Mike Richards and Jeff Carter for years with little to no progress and then Danny Briere shows up and all of a sudden they arrive. Coincidence? No way.

If you're not a flyers fan I know what you're thinking. You're thinking "Lord of the Trap... how can you say that this is a team that is on the fast track? They lost quite a bit in the offseason without really adding anything. Martin Biron is still their goaltender and they really haven't done anything to improve their situation."

First off, part of my excitement comes from the fact that Biron almost certainly nailed that job down with his play in the postseason. We'll talk about it below but the difference between his numbers and those of Niittymaki's were striking.

And what did the Flyers really lose? Well...

Key Departures:
Jason Smith
Vaclav Prospal
RJ Umberger

Smith is a loss as a solid defensive defenseman and leadership presence. His -9 is an interesting statistic for a guy valued most for his defensive ability however. His presence will be missed in the dressing room but as a fantasy player Smith has no real value.

Prospal is interesting. Long thought to be a creation of Vincent Lecavalier, Prospal was traded to Philly at the deadline and immediately clicked with Daniel Briere scoring 14 points in his 18 games and adding an additional 13 points in the Flyers 17 playoff games. His departure leaves a gaping hole on the wing, to be filled (Philly hopes) by a once again healthy (Philly really hopes) Simon Gagne.

Umberger was an absolute FORCE in the playoffs last year and was a large reason the Flyers advanced to the Eastern Conference finals against the Pittsburgh Penguins. His departure to Columbus will be felt but not as terribly as some. The Flyers are DEEP at center. Carter, Richards and Briere are perhaps the best 1,2,3 centers in hockey. None of them are going anywhere and Metropolit will be a fine fourth line center. His 50 regular season points will be missed but not to the extent that you might imagine.

New Faces:
None

The Flyers chose to stand pat and aquired no fantasy worthy players in the offseason. One can hardly blame them.

The Offense:

You Want to Draft:
Mike Richards
Daniel Briere
Joffrey Lupul
Mike Knuble
Jeff Carter

Your number 1 target is Mike Richards. He's very very good. How good you ask? This good. Richards is going to be a 6 tool player this year. A 6 tool player is a player that excels in all 6 categories. Could you define excel Rich? Gladly. Excelling in each category requires that you score 30 or more goals, have 40 or more assists, be a +15 or above, take 220 or more shots, and have 30 or more powerplay points. The numbers may seem kind of arbitrary, but if you look those are about the numbers you have to achieve historically to be in the top 50 in the NHL in each category. PIM is completely arbitrary, and I define that as 70 or more PIM because, well lets face it you don't tend to get guys who will get you 70 or more points that will get more PIM than that.

Anyway, how did Richards do last year? He hit three of the 6 marks, getting 47 assists, 76 PIM and 31 Powerplay points. The other three? He just missed all of them. He had 28 goals, 212 shots and was a +14. BUT, he also mised 9 games. I'm confident that if he had played the full season he would have hit every mark. Get Richards. Get him early. Expect 85 points and solid contribution in all of the secondary categories. Think Olli Jokinen but younger.
FACT: I don't even really like Mike Richards. He's that boring kind of talented, effortlessly good at what he does. That said, imagine how hard I'd be selling him if I did.

Your second target, not long after Richards should be Briere. Briere takes a hit in value because of his absolutely atrocious -22 last year. I'm not even sure how he got that number, perhaps playing against the other teams best line every night took its toll. Perhaps he was just defensively unaware... or maybe its that he scored 37 of his 72 points on the man advantage? Good number right? Expect more of the same. I would wager that his plus minus stabilizes a bit this year as well, as this team gets used to playing with eachother and Biron takes on more starts.
FACT: Briere scored his usual 30 goals last year but his assists took a dive from 65 to 41, largely because he had constantly shifting linemates for most of the year. Look for those numbers to improve if Lupul or Gagne can stay healthy long enough to be called consistent.

Lupul could be a nice under the radar pick in most of your drafts this year. Lupul, the 24 year old former 7th overall pick, had 46 points in 56 games. 21 of those points came on the powerplay. That puts Lupul on target for 70ish points with 30ish coming on the powerplay if he played a full slate of games. 70 points would rank him in the top 40 point getters overall in the NHL last season and firmly within the top 12 RW's. Of those 12 RW's only three achieved or broke 30 powerplay points, something Lupul was on pace to do. Lupul was also on pace to get about 200 shots. His +/- was fine at +2 and his PIM were barely there, 34. That said Lupul is a SOLID second right wing if he just maintains this pace. If he improves though he'll be a steal.
FACT: Joffrey Lupul is clutch. How clutch? In 2006 his team, the Anaheim Ducks, needed 4 goals to defeat the Colorado Avalanche in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Lupul scored a hat trick in regulation and then in overtime tallied the game winner. He is still the only player in NHL history to accomplish this feat.

Mike Knuble is old. At 36 Knuble is definitely reaching the twilight of his career and he SHOULD be drafted as such. I would just like to call your attention to the fact that Knuble is still the big guy that stands in front of the net for this flyers team. As such he had 30 points on the powerplay last season and drew 72 PIM. Thats all I'm saying. Draft him as a third RW or util player and/or let him hang out on your bench for some spot starts. If they stop using him in front of the net on the powerplay then he loses almost all value... but he's worth a late round flyer until that happens.
FACT: Knuble is predictable. He has scored between 50 and 65 points in every season since 02-03 except for one.

Carter is really good. I kind of wish he had been traded in the offseason because I don't like, for fantasy purposes, having someone this good as a third line center anywhere. But such is life. In that role last year Carter had 53 points. With quality linemates he's a 70-80 point guy, evidenced by his 29 goals but only 22 assists last year. He won't have that this season. Carter took 260 shots last season, a very nice number. Unfortunately, due to depth issues, his powerplay time has also suffered (Carter scored only 18 points on the powerplay last year). So why do I put him here? Well IF they stop using Knuble as the big guy in front of the net on the power play, Carter, at 6'3", would fill that role nicely. Plus I think he's just way too good to continue languishing as a third line center. I probably should have put him on the "Guys you want to keep an eye on" list but I would imagine he'll be drafted in most leagues, so if you want him you're going to have to get him.
FACT: In his rookie year, 3 years ago, Jeff Carter scored 23 goals.

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Simon Gagne
Scottie Upshall
Scott Hartnell

If you're a traditionalist flip Gagne up into "You want to Draft" and bring Carter or Knuble down here. I don't care if you question me, I only care that you politely listen to what I have to say before telling me how wrong I am (in the comments section below!!!!). Gagne is here not because I don't think he's talented but because uh... that Jay Bouwmeester can really hit huh? Gagne suffered a concussion at the beginning of last season. He tried to return twice throughout the year only to leave quickly each time. It is unclear at this point whether Gagne suffered two more concussions or just reaggravated the symptoms of the first one twice (doctor's think its the latter) but I've seen enough concussions to be concerned at this point. If he is, by some miracle, 100% come the start of the season, and doesn't get his bell rung, Gagne would find himself in the perfect position to have an 80 point season. High risk, high reward pick though. I'd try to look elsewhere if I could.
FACT: Concussions suck. Don't believe me? Ask Pat LaFontaine or Keith Primeau or Eric Lindros.

Upshall had 30 points in 61 games last year. Underwhelming. Upshall, like half of this team apparently, is a former first rounder, drafted 6th overall by Nashville in 2002. He's got flash and he's fast. He's shown bits of brilliance here and there and is guaranteed to be playing with a talented center this year. Don't be surprised if he breaks out, particularly if there is an injury to any of Philly's top 6.
FACT: Upshall had 13 points in 18 games with the Predators in 06-07 before being traded to the Flyers.

I mention Hartnell for one reason and one reason only, he had 159 PIM last season while managing to be a plus, score 43 points and even chip in 12 powerplay points. Is he the best player out there? No. But as PIM goons are concerned he's one of the only ones that might actually chip in some production for you too, and as a wing he's less of a waste of a roster spot then a center.
FACT: Hartnell is ALSO clutch. He had 6 game winning goals last season! That ties him with Mike Richards for the team lead.

The Defense:

You Want to Draft:
Braydon Coburn
Kimmo Timonen

The only concern with Coburn is that he wasn't getting the powerplay time last season. He's only 23 and for the moment that still seems to be Timonen's role. Coburn is, say it with me, a former first round draft pick, drafted 8th overall by Atlanta in 2003 and sent to Philly for a song. If he repeats last years production he's a good third or fourth defenseman getting you you 36 points and 76 PIM while being a plus and not killing you in shots. His 15 powerplay points are troubling but should improve. Want evidence?
FACT: In 41 games before January Coburn had only 3 points on the man advantage. His other 12 came in the second half of the season.

Timonen is solid. You know what you are getting with him. My only caution here is that if Coburn starts to eat up minutes, and the Flyers forwards stay healthy, Timonen could see a lot less time at the point on the powerplay. Last year he shared that role with Coburn in the second half where he scored 12 of his 29 powerplay points. You will want to monitor who is getting the powerplay assignments in the preseason (and if you don't want to don't worry, I'll do it for you). Good production worthy of a third or fourth D-spot. Clearly on the decline though. FACT: Timonen eats minutes, averaging 23:35 of ice time last year.

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Randy Jones

22 points before the all star break and then a massive cooling. Just be aware of him. He'll be the guy if there are any injury issues.

The Powerplay:

Gosh this one’s a head scratcher. The Flyers are seemingly overburdened with good to great powerplay performers. Powerplay lines should look something like:

Line 1
Daniel Briere
Mike Richards
Mike Knuble
Simon Gagne
Coburn/Timonen

When Gagne inevitably goes down with another concussion I think Lupul takes his place up front. Until then Line 2 will look something like this:

Line 2
Jeff Carter
Joffrey Lupul
Scott Hartnell (to stand in front of the net)
Timonen/Coburn
Randy Jones

As a second unit that’s pretty imposing. I think one of the most interesting stories out of training camp will be who gets top powerplay billing between Timonen and Coburn. I would expect Timonen to start with the job in October but for John Stevens to slowly give Coburn more and more looks with the top line. I could even see a move of Richards to the second line to really give the Flyers a balanced two line attack. This is a team that lives and dies on the man advantage.

The Goalie(s):

Martin Biron won the number 1 job in the playoffs last year… as much as any Flyers goalie can secure the number 1 job that is. He was borderline dominant against Montreal, shutting down a team that had scored more goals then anyone last season… yes including Ottawa… yes including Detroit. He’s GAA is kinda ugly at 2.59 but this is somewhat balanced by his stellar .918 save percentage and 30 wins in only 62 starts. I see Biron getting more starts this season, somewhere in the neighborhood of 68 to 72. This is a also a team that is learning to play better in front of him so the GAA should go down a little.
FACT: Biron is… sigh… a former first round draft pick, drafted sixteenth by Buffalo in 2003. Last year, however, was inexplicably his first as the undisputed starter for any team.

Antero Niittymaki (why not a couple more double letters Antero) is definitely the backup at this point. I think. Right? The Flyers are such pains when it comes to who their goalie is. That said Niittymaki’s numbers suggest that he has earned his secondary fiddle status. Nniittyymmaakkii won 12 of his 23 starts last season but did so with a 2.91 GAA and .908 save percentage… both numbers far inferior to Biron’s. Draft Biron as a full time starter, don’t listen to the naysayers that say you need Antero too if you want to cover your backside. He’ll be a wasted roster spot barring injury
FACT: While abysmal Antero’s 2.91 GAA and .908 save percentage were both career highs. Getting the picture?

The Verdict:

The Flyers are a very good team in an insanely difficult division which probably features the two best goalies in the Eastern Conference in Lundqvist and Brodeur. That’s ok though because they’ll be bringing an All-conference offense at them. This is a team designed to compete and win in the new NHL. Depth is not a problem at center but if the wings start dropping it gets a little trickier. Draft Biron, Briere, Richards, Coburn and Timonen with confidence. If you like your home run swings Lupul, Carter and Gagne (LaFontaine I say!) are all pretty good bets as well for great seasons.