TEAM PREVIEWS: COLORADO AVALANCHE

Introduction:

So with Joe Sakic back I took a look at Colorado's roster again. And at first I was wondering why everyone is so down on this team. They are two scoring lines deep. They picked up a more than adequate checker in Darcy Tucker. They held onto John Michael Liles after a subpar season expecting, I think rightly, that he'll rebound. Salei, Foote and Leopold are all fine defenders... and then I see it. Right. Raycroft and Budaj in net. Yeesh...that could be a problem.

I think the West is too good for Colorado to be a playoff team. I actually think that Edmonton may be a better team, but they will still be fun to watch.

Key Departures:
Jose Theodore
Peter Forsberg?

Theodore had something of a career resurgence last year splitting time with Budaj. The only thing he split this offseason was town. Theodore wasn't any kind of long term answer for this team but his departure does hurt their chances this season.

Forsberg, the Racer X of hockey at this point, was barely there to begin with last season, and may be gone again. There are rumors swirling around this week of another comeback attempt. Personally I'd like Foppa to hang up the skates. I love the man to death. Hell my last girlfriend was from Denver originally. For Christmas I got her, amongst other girlie things, a Blue Forsberg Nordiques jersey because she was getting into hockey and I thought the fleur de lis would appeal to her international sensibilities. But back to Peter. I think he's one of the better hockey players I have ever seen ... when he was healthy and in his prime. That time has long since passed for Forsberg, and I personally would like to see one of my hockey heroes enjoy the rest of his life with ankles that still work and without having to suffer on and off the ice.
FACT: I want to remember Peter like this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYsLM06hRuI The goal about 1:55 in, where he carries it around the entire zone before popping it top shelf is the stuff of legend. Do you see how many goalies (good ones like Kipper, Nabakov, Brodeur, Richter, Lundqvist, Osgood and Kolzig in their primes) he makes look stupid in that video? Do you see how he can't be knocked off the puck? That is pure and simple greatness.

New Faces:
Andrew Raycroft
Darcy Tucker

The reclamation project of the year has got to be Andrew Raycroft. Raycroft is the owner of one really good season of statistics, 1 mediocre season in which Mats Sundin won 37 games for him, and two really really god awful seasons. Raycroft will be, in theory, splitting time with Budaj behind what could be the best team he's played for since his Calder season in 03-04. It will be interesting to watch.

Tucker is an interesting addition. He's had a surprising number of offensively good seasons for a guy known more for his antics then his hands. He's not a bad option for PIM as he'll get you about 150 while still getting some points but don't be expecting 60... or even 40. Those seasons came when Toronto let him play the powerplay because they had no other options. Thats not the case on this team. Third line duty all the way for Darcy.

The Offense:

You want to Draft:
Paul Stastny
Joe Sakic
Milan Hejduk

This is Stastny's team. Sakic's return doesn't change that. Two excellent seasons in a row show that Stasny is no fluke (he was on his way to a 85ish point season last year before going down to injury). He'll have a split of about 30 goals and 50 assists this season, doing a lot of damage on the powerplay. The knock on Stastny at this point is that he doesn't shoot the puck so be aware that you will have to make up for that elsewhere if Stastny is your number one center.
FACT: Ok so you know that his father is Hall of Famer Peter Stastny who played for the Avalanche when they were still the Nordiques... but did you know that Paul is one of the only NHL players that still uses a wood stick? Bet you didn't.

JOE! I'm so happy he's coming back. How good is Joe Sakic? So good. No really. Sakic has 1629 points in 1363 career games. Last season he was on pace for a 70-75 point year before being sidelined by hernia surgery. His 40 points scored in 44 games was the first time Sakic finished a season at less then a point a game since 2001-2002 (when he finished with 79 points in 82 games). Sakic takes a fair amount of shots, and sees loads of time on the powerplay. Given this team's goaltending and Joe's waining speed he might be a minus and he won't get you many penalty minutes... but they still don't come much better then Burnaby Joe. Draft him expecting a little less then a point a game and you shouldn't be disappointed.
FACT: Sakic is 8th all time in total points, 14th in goals scored, 11th in assists, 15th in game winning goals.
FACT: One more reason to like Sakic... This is what he had to say about Lindros when he refused to sign with the Nordiques. "We only want players here who have the passion to play the game. I'm tired of hearing that name. He's not here and there are a lot of others in this locker room who really care about the game."
FACT: Joe Sakic has NEVER missed a Penalty Shot.
FACT: Joe Sakic and I both use an Easton Synergy SL composite stick.

Hedge-duck is consistently inconsistent. His numbers were hurt last season by the lack of a Joe Sakic to receive passes from. He will be better this year, scoring somewhere between 60 and 70 points taking around 230 shots and getting about 25 or so points on the powerplay. He is a good second option at RW.
FACT: Hejduk's 98 point year was an incredible anomaly. He scored 50 goals and his shooting percentage was 20.8%... 6 percentage points higher then his usual 14%.

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Ryan Smyth
Marek Svatos
Wojitek Wolski

Smyth is a darling of smart hockey fans, we'll call them Spuckheads, because he's a gritty player that tends to step it up when it matters most. Unfortunately for Smyth owners, there's no fantasy stat for that. One of these years Smitty will stay healthy and he'll score 40. He doesn't do much else, fantasy wise, besides score goals though and he's hurt way too often for my taste. You draft him though. Have fun. I'll be the guy over here looking for you younger, healthier left wingers.
FACT: Smyth has played for 13 years and has only compiled 4 complete seasons.

Svatos has been a full time NHL-er for three seasons and has yet to break the 70 game plateau as well. He's not much of a passer. If Svatos can stay healthy he also has the potential to be a 40 goal winger.
FACT: Svatos' ice time, at 13:30 minutes or so, is abnormally low for a guy with 40 goal potential. It signifies a lack of faith on behalf of the coaching staff.

Wolski had a terrible year last year. No other way to slice it. Still he has tons of potential that has yet to shine on the NHL level. With Brunette's departure Wolski should see more time on a scoring line this year and should be monitored as a result.
FACT: Wolski had 128 points in 59 games his last season in the OHL and holds 14 franchise records for his OHL team, the Brampton Battalion.

The Defense:

You Want to Draft:
John Michael Liles

Liles is capable of 40-50 points with half of them coming on the powerplay. Like the rest of the team his points took a dive with the loss, for significant periods of time, of stars Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny. He'll rebound this year. There is no one else to qb the powerplay here.
FACT: Liles was a finalist for the Hobey Baker award, the trophy awarded to the best player in college hockey, for his play with the Michigan State Spartans.

The Powerplay:

Joe Sakic
Paul Stastny
Milan Hejduk
Ryan Smyth
John Michael Liles

Its a good unit, one that, with all the injuries, never really got a chance to be tested last season. The second unit is going to be kinda scary looking though.

The Goalie(s):

How do you recover from the loss of a franchise player at the most crucial position in the entire sport? You don't. The Devils will face this question in a few years with Martin Brodeur. The Canadiens may have finally put that question to bed in the last few years, but we won't know until we see what Carey Price can do in an full season. New York took several seasons to rebound from the loss of Mike Richter. No one has suffered like the Avalanche though.

The Avalanche have never recovered from Patrick Roy's retirement. Since they lost the best (second best?) goaltender in the history of the game the Avalanche have had an identity problem in net. Its not so much that they couldn't find anyone to do what Patrick did (other then Marty no one can) its that they haven't even been able to get an adequate replacement.

Neither Budaj nor Raycroft are the answer here. Colorado knows this, which is why they have been taking the build from within approach to rebuilding. It will be a while before a goaltender emerges that can fill Roy's pads... but Colorado at this point would settle for one that can fill his blocker. Say the fans, "Not even the glove! Just give us one Roy-hand! A finger? An eyelash? Come on!"

Budaj will once again be serviceable as he splits time for the third straight year. Expect no heroics though. Either of these goalies could be fine for "third goalie spot start" duty but neither is a viable fantasy option.
FACT: Andrew Raycroft's save percentage rose above .880 only once in the last three seasons...when he posted a save percentage of .894! No good. Not even remotely acceptable.

The Verdict:

The Avalanche are a talented offensive team that will suffer defensive problems and stretches of complete mediocrity from their goaltending. Its going to be a long year in Colorado but Joe and Paul should at least make it pretty exciting.