Don't Toews Me Bro

This entry brought to you by M. Rohr's Coffee House... "Where Coffee is the luxury." Yea... it makes no sense but try telling them that. Furthermore you'll forget about it once you taste one of their amazing house blends (currently drinking Cinnamon Hazelnut Cream). If you ever find yourself on the Upper East Side in New York City, stop in and get yourself a coffee and a homemade pastry. Tell em The Trap sent ya... then when they just stare at you quizzically pay your bill and leave.

Sponsorships out of the way I've got a question that has to be nagging a lot of people: Just how good are Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews? I know... better saved for team previews but I think to properly analyze the offseason acquisitions of the Blackhawks this is something we have to answer.

Two promising young prospects, both high first round draft picks are brought up by a team in the same year. One plays all 82 games, has 26 goals and 41 assists, finishing with 67 points and the Calder trophy for Rookie of the Year. The other gets hurt, only plays 65 games but still finishes with 51 points points, 29 goals and 22 assists, on the season. Many people think that he would have won the Calder if he stayed healthy.

That's what happened in 2001-2002, and those two players were Dany Heatley (the 2nd Overall pick in the 2000 draft) and Ilya Kovalchuk (the first overall pick in 2001) respectively.

Toews (pronounced Taves) and Kane's story isn't so different. Patrick Kane, the first overall draft pick in 2007, and Jonathan Toews, the third overall pick in the 2006, started last season for Chicago as two highly touted prospects and finished it as the teams biggest stars. Kane played in all 82 games, had 72 points, 21 goals and 51 assists, and won the Calder trophy. Toews suffered an injury and played in only 64 games, scoring 24 goals and assisting on 30 to finish his abbreviated season with 54 points. That's right, Kane and Toews outpaced Kovalchuk and Heatley. Nice right?

In year 2 of their NHL careers Kovalchuk showed moderate improvement, putting up 38 goals and 29 assists (67 points) while Heatley lit up the world with 41 goals and 48 assists (89 points). Both would have many 80+ point seasons after that (and will continue to do so).

The same should be expected of Toews and Kane. Toews will break 30 goals this season, probably finishing around 75 points. Kane should touch 80 points; this taking into account that these boys now have a much better supporting cast then Kovalchuk and Heatley did any of the years that they played together in Atlanta.

So the question was how good are they? So good that a comparison to Kovalchuk and Heatley is warranted. Yea. That good. Offseason Previews!

The Chicago Blackhawks

By now you might have guessed that I'm a little bullish on this years Blackhawks team. I am. They are still in a crappy division (minus the absolute best team in hockey who we will talk about in short order) but that has very little to do with why I like them so much. I like this team because they are legitimately good and they are making moves that, perish the thought, address their actual weaknesses.

Despite losing virtually all of their major players to injury for some stretch of time last year and having something of a revolving door in net, Chicago only missed the playoffs by 3 points.

The knocks against Chicago were that they lacked veteran leadership amongst a VERY talented young set of defenseman and their goaltending situation was... er... volatile. Khabibulin, when he played, was actually pretty good. 23 wins in 50 starts with a 2.69 GAA and .909 Sv%. That's not great but its respectable for a team that played the Red Wings 8 times last season. But consistency in net is necessary, not just in fantasy hockey but in the real world (look at Ottawa).

That's why the Huet move is such a huge move for the Blackhawks. Huet has been one of the better goaltenders, statistically speaking, for the last few years. Cristobal won 32 of his 52 starts last year, finishing with a 2.32 GAA and a .920 SV%. I wouldn't expect those numbers, other than wins, to change too much on this team. Skeptical? Huet started 13 games for the Capitals last season, a team which was not short on defensive issues. He won 11 while putting up a 1.63 GAA and .932 Sv%. He won't keep those ridiculous numbers up for the entire year, but he should be more than capable of carrying this team for stretches.

Should the Blackhawks do what everyone expects them to do, and move Khabibulin for some help up front, then Huet's value skyrockets. A season of wins in the high 30's with his other numbers remaining fairly stable is not out of the question. This is a team that is trending up, both offensively and defensively. A big reason for that is their other acquisition, Brian Campbell.

Campbell provides the veteran leadership on defense that this team was dying for all of last season. Duncan Keith is 25 and had 32 points. Brent Seabrook is 23 and had 32 points. Wisniewski is 24 and had 26 points. Finally Cam Barker is only 22... he had 18 points in 45 games. All of these kids were high draft picks and, with the exception of Barker, all of them were significant +'s last season. Campbell will reign all of them in and give them someone to follow. I think this move helps the Hawks tremendously

That said, I think this move actually hurts Campbell's fantasy value. That is a CROWDED and extremely talented blue line attack. I think Campbell will play very well, and will certainly be worth drafting, but I don't think he even sniffs 62 points this season. I would draft Campbell as a player that will get you low-40's in production but be a decent plus and a force on the powerplay. Doing this will likely mean that you don't get to have him. Its ok. If you miss out on him and you really really want a Blackhawks d-man there are plenty to choose from.

Believe the hype.