Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Rockin In the Free (Agent) World

So... you meet a girl, or a boy (I don't discriminate) fall rapidly in love and spend a significant amount of time, energy and money on him/her/it over the course of your young relationship. Things are going well. You introduce her to your city, let her know everything about you and do everything you can to form a real bond with her. You don't know where its going but you assume that should anything come up you'll have a shot at talking it through, because you believe compromise and negotiation are key elements in any relationship.

One day you're sitting in a paddle boat with your lady love/knight in shining some such when he/she turns to you and says "Hey sugarplum... I'd like to meet your friends." You happen to be going to the bar that night to meet up with them and you invite her along, eager to show him/her off.

All your friends like her/him. They express how great they are for you. But one keeps asking you strange questions. "How old is he/she? Do you think they'd like it in Canada? How fast do they run a mile... on average?" You get suspicious but you just assume that your friend is drunk. At one point you excuse yourself from your betrothed to use the restroom. When you return your strange friend is forcing his tongue down he/she/its throat and you can't tell whether or not your intended is enjoying it or not.

That friend... that's Kevin Lowe(General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers for those of you not in the know (TYNITK from now on)). You are Brian Burke (General Manager of the Anaheim Ducks for TYNITK). And that until recently so special person who is now sucking face and dreaming of staging their own personal "Battle for Alberta" that's Dustin Penner. Does all of this back and forth between the two make a little more sense now?

Look I support ridiculous offer sheets for RFA's. I do. I spent a couple of hours back in March deciding which RFA defensemen the Devils should make offer sheets to once July rolled around (I was not optimistic about the playoffs). But I only support doing it in the right instances for proven commodities. Hell I'd even support "semi" proven commodities.

When Kevin Lowe went after Vanek he went after the hottest girlfriend in the room. You gotta respect that. The fact that Vanek went on to have a so so year was neither here nor there (lots of people let themselves go a bit once they feel they are set for life). But when you make a 5 year offer sheet at 4.25 per to a guy who wasn't drafted and has scored 52 points in 101 NHL games, effectively making him the highest paid forward on your team... well then even the guys with ugly girlfriends get nervous.

Lowe is right though in his overall philosophy. This NHL is a young man's game. The rest of the league knows this which is why the young guys are getting the big contracts and the old guys are going to Russia. Lowe's aggressive tactics, while they haven't yet paid off for him, have changed the way the league looks at its youngest and brightest stars. When preparing for your draft you should keep that in mind too. While a lot of this year UFA's (Unrestricted Free Agents for TYNITK) are going to look sexy and should be taken in the early rounds, once those big names are off the table maybe you should keep the younger guys in mind before reaching for an aging veteran on his last contract before heading way east.

Without further adieu, let's get to our free agency/off season wrap up. We'll start with... what else the Atlantic Division

The New York Islanders
Mark Streit is a bigger asset then you think he is. Don't laugh. I said don't laugh. Ok fine. He's 30 years old. He's only played two full seasons prior to last year and its impossible to know whether he'll be playing D or Wing or be the next head coach or GM of this team. Is he worth what they paid? No. Should you draft him as high as someone else will considering he got 62 points last year (tied with Brian Campbell for third amongst defenseman)? Probably not. But if he falls in your draft I would keep an eye out. He's going to be a minus on this team, but he's still probably good for 40 points or so. If you are looking for defensemen on this team I think Chris Campoli will be a much better option.

Weight for it... Weight for it... can't do it. Sorry. Don't pick Doug Weight. But you didn't need me to tell you that.

The New Jersey Devils
Rolston was a good signing... but not for 4 years. While the term concerns me as a fan it shouldn't concern you in your fantasy draft. He will play on the first line, probably with Elias and/or Parise. His shot from the point is exactly what the Devils were missing on their power play. I'd say he's a lock for 60+ points with about half of those coming on the man advantage. I would expect his +/- to be positive as well now that he's back in front of Marty. Did you know he rarely played with Gaborik out in Minnesota, yet he had three straight 30 goal seasons there? Fact.

Holik. He came cheap. He shouldn't even be on your list on draft day unless your league only drafts players from Jihlava, Czechoslovakia. Even then you might want to consider taking David Vyborny first.

Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers were relatively quiet. This is not necessarily a bad thing. I think most teams in the NHL at this point should envy their depth at center. A little light on the wings, but shouldn't hurt them too badly. This is a deceptively deep offensive team.

Pittsburgh Penguins
They lost an in his prime star in Hossa. Ouch.

But this Pittsburgh team will likely be fine. They were well within reach of the playoffs when they acquired Maid Marion in the first place. While they were unable to use free agency to acquire anything that will come close to replacing what Hossa's output would have been for an entire year... they didn't have to.

Miroslav Satan is a fine addition and should see a similar spike to that Sykora received last year by playing on Crosby or Malkin's wing. A mid 50's season in points would not be unheard of. He'll put up Malone numbers this year.

I wouldn't expect a similar spike from the other Islander the Pens acquired in Fedotenko. He's a career 30 point producer. If anything the departures open the door for increased ice time for Dupuis, who scored 12 points in 16 games after joining the Pens last year, and the still very very young and talented Jordan Staal.

The New York Rangers
One of the more active teams in free agency. The Rangers added Wade Redden and Dmitri Kalinin to their blue line, resigned Paul Mara and Michal Rozsival, and added by subtracting Christian Backman and Marek Malik.

Looking JUST at what they've done on defense for a moment I would say that the addition of Redden improves their power play immensely (as does... I'm serious... the subtraction of Jagr but more on that in a second). Redden gives them a puck moving defenseman and a power play quarterback the likes of which they haven't had for some time. Additionally, keeping Mara and Rosey means their powerplay is fairly deep and should be able to consistently put two good pressure units on the ice.

Kalinin is a good stay at home defenseman, and Redden's commitment to defense has rarely been questioned (he has one career minus season). All of this means the Rangers should be incredibly solid in their back end. This probably moves Marc Staal's fantasy relevance back at least a year though.

Moving now to the forwards, the Rangers added Nikolai Zherdev and Markus Naslund to their interchangeable flock (sorry couldn't resist). Its probably premature to speculate but I would imagine that both of these men would play with Drury or Gomez though likely not on the same line and some combination of Dubinsky, Dawes and Callahan would round out the top six forwards.

The subtraction of Jaromir Jagr signifies a transition to a more attack oriented team. Gomez will likely now have forwards who zoom through the neutral zone with him instead of circling back as soon as they reach the blue line. One thing is for sure; this is going to be a completely different brand of hockey when it hits the ice this fall.

Early speculation: Gomez sees a bump in value as does Zherdev (who will play on his wing). Naslund stays around the high 50's (he was playing with the Sedin's last year lets not forget) but remains relevant as a run and gun left wing. Drury should see his point totals comfortably return to the mid 60's. Redden improves on last years numbers seeing point totals in the high 40's low 50's. Rosey's numbers dip as he is no longer the go to guy but he remains fantasy relevant. Either Dubinsky or Dawes will be worth owning by years end in all but the shallowest of leagues.

OK thats all for now. We'll see you tomorrow for the rest of the Eastern Conference.

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