Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Player Rankings: Tier 1 & 2 D-men

I said I was going to do it. D-men get very um... common after the top 20 or so. Most leagues are going to make you play 4-5 depending upon size so unfortunately you need to really mine this particular position for every last speck of worth.

There are a couple of solid strategies for dealing with d-men. One strategy is to focus all of your attention on the top guys. Draft defensemen early and often and then fill in your forward slots with talented lower tier forwards. At Center three isn't a WHOLE lot of difference between the 15-25 guys as compared to the 25-35 guys. So, you can afford to wait a while to draft you second center. Once you get past the top 20 or so right wings, as you saw, it gets scary. Left wings are a bit deeper though the difference between the top ten and the rest of the pack is striking. However, there will always be forwards out there... quality forwards.

Another strategy is to use them to roster plug, essentially draft high quality forwards throughout the draft and try to use the defenseman to fill in categories you aren't getting like +/- and PIM. This is an all right strategy but will almost guarantee that you will place low in powerplay points. There are only so many d-men that quarterback the powerplay and once they are gone they're gone. Rarely will a D-man take that role over mid-season unless there is a catastrophic injury or they come from out of nowhere.

You will generally not be able to to get a 60 point d-man off of waivers. There is usually one exception to this rule per year. Last year it was Mike Green. this year... I don't know... maybe Kris Russel in Columbus or Brian Lee in Ottawa.

Every D-man is going to get you somewhere between 4 and 18 goalies. That's nothing. The real differences come in powerplay points, +/-, PIM, and Shots on goal. Essentially the defense slot becomes where you differentiate yourself in the secondary categories, particularly in the new NHL. This is why the second strategy above is so tempting... however it comes with risks.

So what are you looking for in a good d-man? Your absolute best option is a defenseman on a good team that runs the powerplay and isn't afraid to mix it up a little. There aren't very many of these. The 9 listed below are the absolute best at what they do. The rest will follow as soon as a decision is made on Schneider's future.

Breaking the Trap Presents:
Top Defensemen (By Tier) for the 2008-2009 FHL Season
Tier 1 (should be drafted between the 2nd and 4th round in a 10 team league):
1. Dion Phaneuf, Cgy
Projected Stats: 18 G, 41 A, +15, 143 PIM, 35 PP, 258 SOG
The phrase "took the league by storm" hardly seems adequate to describe what Phaneuf has done in the last three years. He scores (20 goals in his rookie campaign!!), He hits (182 PIM last season!!!) he makes plays (33 powerplay points last season!!!!) and he does all this without being a defensive liability (+27 over his three year career!!!!!). He is the most versatile option at this position.
2. Nicklas Lidstrom, Det
Projected Stats: 14 G, 58 A, +40, 42 PIM, 33 PP, 183 SOG
Second by a nose hair, Lidstrom is the premier d-man in the NHL. Drafting him almost assures that you are competitive in assists, powerplay points and +/-. He isn't the physical presence of some of the other top defensemen in the league but he more then makes up for that with every other aspect of his game.
3. Chris Pronger, Ana
Projected Stats: 13 G, 38 A, +24, 116 PIM, 34 PP, 182 SOG
Think of him as Phaneuf lite at this stage of his career. The return of Niedermayer for a full season should help. Pronger is a mean bastard with a goal scorers touch. After Lidstrom and Phaneuf he is the best of the rest.
Tier 2 (should be drafted between the 4th and 7th round in a ten team league)
4. Sergei Gonchar, Pitt
Projected Stats: 12 G, 54 A, +9, 72 PIM, 41 PP, 185 SOG
He almost makes tier 1 but misses slightly because of my concerns about his plus/minus and his PIM which have been decreasing steadily over the past few season. Gonchar is the only one qualified to run the powerplay in Pittsburgh, particularly with Ryan Whitney being out until January (hence his exclusion from this list). Pittsburgh powerplay should be ... heh... pretty good too. That's what I'm hearing anyway.
5. Dan Boyle, SJ
Projected Stats: 17 G, 41 A, +11, 68 PIM, 36 PP, 192 SOG
The general of what should be another wildly successful powerplay this season, Boyle instantly improves San Jose offense. The Sharks, in turn, instantly improve Boyle's plus/minus. A top tier offensive defenseman with concerns just had his edges smoothed out. Enjoy him.
6. Brian Rafalski, Det
Projected Stats: 12 G, 43 A, +27, 36 PIM, 34 PP, 172 SOG
Think of Rafalski as Lidstrom lite. What I made that joke already? Ah well. He does everything except get you PIM but he does what he does very very well.
7. Zdeno Chara, Bos
Projected Stats: 13 G, 34 A, +9, 108 PIM, 24 PP, 202 SOG
Someone finally remembered that Chara has a CANNON of a shot and let him open up on the powerplay. Chara had off-season shoulder surgery and may miss a few games at the start of the season. That and the fact that he still plays for Boston are the only reason he isn't higher on this list.
8. Mike Green, Wash
Projected Stats: 19 G, 38 A, +7, 58 PIM, 26 PP, 233 SOG
I think the above represents the absolute floor for most of Green's stats this year (except for goals which might be a tad optimistic). Green scored most of his points at even strength last year which is nice for plus minus but not so nice for powerplay points. Lets see what this year brings before we go crazy.
9. Scott Niedermayer, Ana
Projected Stats: 14 G, 38 A, +8, 64 PIM, 35 PP, 165 SOG
Oh yea... that guy. Niedermayer took most of the season to decide whether he was going to honor his contract last year after fulfilling his life-long goal of winning a Stanley Cup with his brother. That indecision, and Teemu's, is what led Anaheim to the funky cap problems necessitating the waiving of Mathieu Schneider this year and Ilya Bryzgalov last year. Questions of heart aside Anaheim had the best record in the NHL after Niedermayer's return. Their D is rivaled only by Detroit's. There may be more grey in Scott's playoff beard then there used to be but he is still a top ten pick at D.

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