Ok so I'd tell you how I did this but its kinda complicated and involved an entire wall of dry erase boards. Seriously. I'll post pictures later. These rankings take into account last years outputs (adjusted for injuries where I felt fitting) the outputs of the players the year before and their projected outputs by myself and several other independent sources.
A player is ranked based upon his performance in the following categories Goals, Assists, +/-, Powerplay Points, Penalty Minutes and shots on goal.
So without further adieu... let's do this:
Breaking the Trap presents
Top 40 (or so) FHL Centers for 2008-2009 Season
1. Sidney Crosby, Pitt
Projected Stats: 36 G, 78 A, +20, 50PP, 65 PIM, 290 SOG
Sid the Kid is the complete package. He absolutely dominated these rankings with his only real competition coming from the next guy on our list. His supporting cast has changed significantly but that shouldn't have much effect on his numbers.
2. Evgeni Malkin, Pitt
Projected Stats: 45 G, 60 A, +14, 40 PP, 80 PIM, 270 SOG
They are closer then you might think and if you have a feeling you are going to need goals then by all means take Malkin as he should net you about ten more then Sid. Sid beats Malkin in MOST of the intangibles though. I don't think anyone can fault you for taking either of these guys as your first center.
3. Joe Thornton, SJ
Projected Stats: 28 G, 87 A, +20, 50 PP, 59 PIM, 180 SOG
Joe... why can't you shoot the puck more Joe! Remember back in the early 2000's when you used to beat people up in addition to having a ridiculous number of assists, regularly topping 80 PIM? Those were good times Joe. Anyway San Jose got a LOT better offensively speaking in the offseason. Boyle will have a huge effect on Joe's numbers, particularly on the man advantage.
4. Pavel Datsyuk, Det
Projected Stats: 30 G, 66 A, +40, 42 PP, 20 PIM, 240 SOG
They are going to rename he Lady Byng trophy by the time this guy is done playing the game. Lady Datsyuk doesn't get you PIM and his SOG are a little low but that +40 is pretty much guaranteed, plus he is going to be playing on the most dangerous powerplay in the league next year. I think he and Jokinen are sort of interchangeable value wise, it depends on what you value more; Datsyuk is a more dependable powerplay and +/- option whereas Jokinen... well...
5. Olli Jokinen, Pho
Projected Stats: 40 G, 45 A, -3, 30 PP, 70 PIM, 360 SOG
Olli gets you SOG and PIM, in significantly larger number then Datsyuk but that minus is the issue. Dependable plus/minus is hard to come by and thats why I gave Datsyuk the edge here. Olli joins a new cast of talent line mates on Phoenix (we'll be talking about two of them later in this very article). He should pick up right where he left off in Florida, with a modest bump for the slightly improved setting and circumstances.
6. Vincent Lecavalier, TB
Projected Stats: 50 G, 50 A, -15, 32 PP, 60 PIM, 300 SOG
Where you pick Lecavalier depends upon your risk tolerance. If he manages to turn a season where he is a plus then he probably moves up a couple of slots. With Tampa's revolving door at D right now, and your choice of trash cans filled with gravel in net that doesn't look very likely. For now Lecavalier will be offensively spectacular on a defensively poor team. I docked him about 20 PIM because I think Melrose will coach him better then Tortorella did.
7. Ryan Getzlaf, Ana
Projected Stats: 25 G, 60 A, +30, 35 PP, 84 PIM, 200 SOG
If Getzlaf took a few more shots he'd be very good in all categories. As it is he'll have to settle for just five. Selanne may have no idea what he's doing yet, but Getzlaf is the leader of this team. His point totals will not be affected.
8. Jason Spezza, Ott
Projected Stats: 35 G, 60A, +15, 33 PP, 50 PIM, 180 SOG
He could have a better season then Getzlaf (though if you look closely Getzlaf nails the intangibles), but he could also get hurt and miss 20-30 games like he does most seasons. Be aware of the injury risk and general state of chaos in Ottawa before making this pick.
9. Eric Staal, Car
Projected Stats: 40 G, 48 A, 0, 35 PP, 54 PIM, 300 SOG
Staal is better then his last few years of production would indicate, and those years haven't been bad. He has, by all accounts, a healthy team. I wonder if Pitkanen and Corvo are the answer on the powerplay (Corvo certainly seemed to be) but Big E should still have a fantastic year regardless.
10. Mike Richards, Phi
Projected Stats: 30 G, 54 A, +10, 33 PP, 20 PIM, 255 SOG
The highest ranked of Philly's three devastating center, Richards is player that will only continue to improve. Expect big things and you won't be disappointed.
11. Marc Savard, Bos
Projected Stats: 20 G, 70 A, +2, 35 PP, 85 PIM, 200 SOG
Savard is consistently underrated. He's Diet Joe Thornton. If you already have Joe you probably don't want Marc, but he is a good substitute.
12. Joe Sakic, Col
Projected Stats: 26 G, 54 A, +2, 33 PP, 40 PIM, 240 SOG
The ageless wonder has decided to return for his 20th season with the Colorado Avalanche. His numbers last season are artificially deflated because of his hernia surgery. Joe is completely recovered and should be on track for another stellar season.
13. Brad Richards, Dal
Projected Stats: 24 G, 50 A, +13, 34 PP, 20 PIM, 270 SOG
A defensively responsible system should take care of the biggest knock against Richards the last few seasons, which was his horrendous +/-. Richards should see plenty of powerplay time and get the opportunity to be the man as Mike Modano slowly fades away.
14. Paul Stastny, Col
Projected Stats: 32 G, 54 A, +15, 30 PP, 26 PIM, 180 SOG
If he shot the puck more I'd love him. As it is I like him quite a bit. If he stays healthy this year expect some spectacular numbers from the spawn of Peter. He was ready to step up and take the franchise from Sakic.
15. Daniel Briere, Phi,
Projected Stats: 33, 50, -15, 40 PP, 65 PIM, 200 SOG
I'm playing a hunch on Briere and bumping him up a few slots from what the other rankings are giving him credit for. Briere had a terrible slump in the second half of last season, largely because his linemates kept dropping like flies. That doesn't account for the horrendous -22 but it at least explains it a little bit. Based upon his playoffs and his generally strong play I'd even suggest that he could go higher. If that plus minus clears up Briere is almost an elite option at center.
16. Jonathan Toews, Chi
Projected Stats: 34 G, 42 A, +12, 35 PP, 70 PIM, 190 SOG
Toews is entering a crucial season. The franchise is sort of banking on he and Kane delivering on the promise they showed last season. Chicago made moves to build around these two and shore up some of their weaknesses. This will be a big year in Chi-town, and a very early make or brake moment in Toews' career.
17. Derek Roy, Buff
Projected Stats: 28 G, 50, A, +8, 24 PP, 50 PIM, 186 SOG
Roy is the number one center on this team now. Connoly lost that job when he couldn't stay healthy long enough to play three games in a row last season. Playing with Pominville and Vanek Roy had a very good year last year. It will have to continue if Buffalo expects to be any type of competitive.
18. Saku Koivu, Mon
Projected Stats: 18 G, 42 A, +1, 28 PP, 90 PIM, 180 SOG
Saku had a bad year on a good team, thats usually a sign of a player on the decline. His PIM, which has been 70 or above for the last three seasons, give him a boost as does his potential for Powerplay Points.
19. Mats Sundin, ???
Projected Stats: ?????????????
Based on projections for Sundin ending up somewhere decent and starting the season there without having trained in the offseason and likely missing some of camp this is where I think you should draft the aging Swede. If he ends up somewhere and looks good in camp then I would move him up. If he doesn't sign anywhere by the time you draft I would move him down. Center is too deep a position to waste picks at.
20. Daymond Langkow, Cal
Projected Stats: 31 G, 40 A, +16, 28 PP, 32 PIM, 210 SOG
Langkow is still centering Iginla. Now he's centering Iginla and Cammalleiri. Thats great for Langkow... unless Cammalleiri takes over as center. Then that is bad fr Langkow.
21. Scott Gomez, NYR
Projected Stats: 18 G, 50 A, +8, 33 PP, 40 PIM, 250 SOG
Gomez isn't going to take the hit to his numbers many think he will without Jagr around. Gomez spent most of the year without Jagr and had his greatest success on the man advantage with Drury. He's got one of the best transitions games in the sport. At this stage of his career he makes other people better, not vice versa.
22. Anze Kopitar, LA
Projected Stats: 35 G, 45 A, -20, 35 PP, 20 PIM, 200 SOG
Anze takes a hit because of his terrible plus minus. I put him here to remind you that he's a threat to score 40 and had 75 points last year.
23. Jeff Carter, Phi
Projected Stats: 30 G, 30 A, +10, 20 PP, 60 PIM, 280 SOG
I like Carter, I just don't think he is going to get the kind of ice time he needs to be successful on this team. He is pretty clearly the third center and while Philly has scoring wingers three lines deep, they don't have three powerplay lines. If Carter starts seeing time on the powerplay this year that will move him up significantly in the rankings.
24. Jason Arnott, Nsh
Projected Stats: 26 G, 36 A, +10, 22 PP, 56 PIM, 200 SOG
Radulov's defection is going to hurt this team a lot. I think it effects Arnott more then most. Dumont took a massive step forward last year but will it be enough? Arnott's powerplay stats were very low for a team that has such great powerplay quarterback defensemen as well.
25. Mike Ribiero, Dal
Projected Stats: 23 G, 56 A, +18, 32 PP, 50 PIM, 110 SOG
Ribiero's shooting percentage was about 25% last year... raise your hand if you think he can do that again. I'm going to assume that because I can't see anyone's hands that you all agree with me.
26. Henrik Sedin, Van
Projected Stats: 16 G, 65 A, +10, 32 PP, 58 PIM, 136 SOG
The lesser Sedin in many people's mind fantasy wise, Henrik still has his value. He is a great third center to grab for one of your forward slots if you feel like you need help in assists of powerplay points. Avoid him if you're hurting in goals or shots though.
27. Steven Stamkos, TB
Projected Stats: 29 G, 33 A, -10, 20 PP, 60 PIM, 250 SOG
He is supposed to be NHL ready and he will likely step into second or third line duty, with talented wingers, right away. We're going to see what this kid has got pretty quickly.
28. Tomas Plekanec, Mon
Projected Stats: 25 G, 4o A, +10, 25 PP, 40 PIM, 170 SOG
So I'm confused to Kovalev just score all of the powerplay points by himself? Plekanec is the most talented young guy on a team of talented young guys. He could take another huge step forward this year.
29. Patrice Bergeron, Bos
Projected Stats: 28 G, 45 A, -10, 35 PP, 20 PIM, 220 SOG
Looks like a good stat line right? Why so low on the list? Uh... because center is a very deep position and Bergeron missed most of last year due to a concussion he suffered ff a BRUTAL hit. So why take that Patty Lafontaine risk if you don't have to. Bergeron is a great player, fun to watch. I hope he's better because he's got a lot left to show all of us.
30. Nicklas Backstrom, Wash
Projected Stats: 18 G, 60 A, +8, 30 PP, 20 PIM, 160 SOG
Backstrom is a good sleeper candidate, but if he doesn't improve on the above stat line then he's a dime a dozen at center.
31. Patrick Marleau, SJ
Projected Stats: 26 G, 40 A, 0, 34 PP, 30 PIM, 180 SOG
Marleau had a ROUGH go of it last year. I suspect that he, like most of the San Jose forwards, will see his fortunes turn some this year. There's no guarantee of that though. Center is deep, take him late but don't reach early.
32. Rod Brind'Amour, Car
Projected Stats: 26 G, 40 A, +5, 28 PP, 40 PIM, 180 SOG
How deep is center? Brind'Amour was a point a game 2 years ago and I can't justify putting him any higher on this list. Rod is apparently fully recovered from his knee surgery and will start the season with the club. My only concern is his age. At 38 once those wheels start popping off its tough to pop them back on.
33. Johan Franzen, Det
Projected Stats: 30 G, 30 A, +18, 18 PP, 45 PIM, 220 SOG
This is a very very crowded team. A lot of people are looking for a huge season out of Franzen after his post season explosion. If thats you feel free to move him up a couple of spots. Me my money is on the big 3 in Detroit doing what they do and the rest of the supporting cast doing what they do, getting between 40 and 60 points.
34. Chris Drury, NYR
Projected Stats: 30 G, 30 A, 0, 31 PP, 40 PIM, 210 SOG
I like Chris. I like him as a hockey player. I love that he was the first person to skate over to Avery while he was doing his ridiculous stick antics to Brodeur. I think he's a classy individual and a great example of what the game should be. I don't think he's a great fantasy option however. He's average and a solid third center.
35. Peter Mueller, Pho
Projected Stats: 28 G, 35 A, -8, 25 PP, 40 PIM, 220 SOG
The bad news for Mueller is that Jokinen's arrival knocks him back on the depth chart a bit. The good news is that he should see powerplay time with him. Mueller is a great breakout candidate and I'd watch him closely.
36. Mikko Koivu, Minn
Projected Stats: 20 G, 45 A, +10, 22 PP, 35 PIM, 170 SOG
Well... he's definitely Gaborik's center now. These numbers are pretyt much in line with what Koivu was moving towards last season before his injury. He's a good sleeper candidate.
37. Robert Lang, Chi
Projected Stats: 20 G, 33 A, +12, 20 PP, 55 PIM, 175 SOG
Lang is a boring pick here, because you know what he's going to do. If you are looking for the above stat line he's perfect for you. Don't expect any more then that though.
38. Shawn Horcoff, Edm
Projected Stats: 25 G, 38 A, -10, 25 PP, 45 PIM, 200
Its crowded up there in Edmonton. Sam Gagner just missed this list (though I'd recommend taking him as a flyer in a late round). I think Edmonton is better then most people think, and I think the possibility exists that Horcoff could have a huge season. I also think he could tank. So, take him late.
39. Patrick O'Sullivan, LA
Projected Stats: 26 G, 35 A, -15, 25 PP, 30 PIM, 230 SOG
Los Angeles is a team that is a bout to be decent. They aren't there yet but they have a lot of young talent up front and a fair amount on D as well. If they could get one of their goalie prospects to work, and stop trading talented young forwards for D prospects then they might make something. O'Sullivan is a key piece to that rebuilding process.
40a. RJ Umberger, Cls
Projected Stats: 25 G, 40 A, -6, 25 PP, 30 PIM, 220 SOG
I will readily admit that a lot of that is conjecture, but Umberger won the free agent lottery. He will start the season centering Rick Nash. Many have failed in this role but if Umberger's playoff success means anything then he just might be the guy that finally does something fantasy relevant with the spot.
40b. Jochen Hecht, Buff
Projected Stats: 23 G, 35 A, +5, 15 PP, 40 PIM, 220 SOG
Here's your safe pick. Hecht is good but not great. He managed to carve out a decent season in Buffalo last year despite all the upheaval. You might want to give him a shot, but be aware that these are pretty much the numbers you will get.
40c. Kyle Turris, Pho
Projected Stats: ?
If you are really adventurous then this is my pick for you. Turris is a highly touted prospect who likely won't see anything above third line duty in Phoenix... but he's really good. Here's his life story http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyle_Turris. I'm not saying you have to draft the kid... just give him a look is all.
So there you go. What? Where's Nylander? I think its his time. Gagner? I told you he just missed. Elias and Parise? The LW list, thats how they are listed on most sites. Stephen Weiss? He also just missed but I like him a lot. I think you'll be able to grab him on the waiver wire.
All right... next up... er... left wingers... or right wingers... not sure...
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