So here's how I made this list. I took every goalie that I thought had a legitimate shot at playing thirty games or more this year without an injury to the presumptive starter. This came out to about 40 goalies of which I am going to give you the top 35, based upon a similar ranking system to the one I used with the forwards.
There are backups that COULD become fantasy relevant that are not on this list (Pavelec in Atlanta, Norrena and Mason in Columbus, etc) but I'm reserving them for a separate list. These are goalies who as things stand right now should see significant ice time.
Goalie is a deceptively shallow position that's the bad news. In a ten team league you have 20 starting goalies, and I think 17 is really my cutoff for using the phrase "very good" to describe any of them. You SHOULD have three goalies so that you can rotate. If you don't someone else will and they will dominate wins. Keep that in mind.
Goalie is, however, one position that you can dominate with good drafting. There are three, four in leagues that count shutouts, categories that two to three players will account for. You don't have to get everything from every goaltender. You can almost always make up wins, but GAA and SV% are much tougher to come by.
Breaking the Trap presents...
Top 35 FHL Goalies for 2008-2009 season
1. Martin Brodeur, NJ
Projected Stats: 43 W, 2.18 GAA, .920 SV%, 5 Shutouts
The class of the league. Marty's wins have always been solid, but in the years since the lockout and the break down of the Devil's defense his SV% has improved dramatically as he has faced a significantly stronger barrage of shots in the absence of any help behind his blue line. Draft him in the first round with one of the top 5 picks. He won't be there much longer then that.
2. J.S. Giguere, Ana
Projected Stats: 36 W, 2.14 GAA, .920 SV%, 5 Shutouts
The unfortunately nicknamed Giggy has been pretty consistently stellar for the last several years. He tends to have a bit of an injury bug but if he stays healthy he is every bit the elite option in net that Brodeur is. Seriously though... how do they give you the Conn Smythe when your team lost. How is that not Marty's trophy... its like the one major... (rants for several hours)
3. Roberto Luongo, Van
Projected Stats: 37 W, 2.32 GAA, .921 SV%, 4 Shutouts
At this stage of the game Luongo may actually have the best "skills" of any goalie in the league... he's just trapped on a team that is going to lose 1-0 a lot of nights this year.
4. Evgeni Nabakov, SJ
Projected Stats: 42 W, 2.21 GAA, .910 SV%, 6 Shutouts
Nabakov is either great or terrible.... in fact he usually has one great year and then one terrible year. Well, last year broke that trend. We were due for bad Nabakov and instead what we got was a Vezina finalist. His SV% will never be among the elite but he delivers in all the other categories.
5. Niklas Backstrom, Minn
Projected Stats: 32 W, 2.18 GAA, .921 SV%, 4 Shutouts
Backstrom has very quietly had two great years in Minnesota. His GAA went up last year but Minnesota again bolstered their defense in the offseason so I expect that to start making its way back down. If there was no Josh Harding in Minnesota I think a case could be made to take Backstrom even higher. If you do take Backstrom I recommend handcuffing him with Josh Harding later in the draft, as you'll see.
6. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR
Projected Stats: 37 W, 2.24 GAA, .916 SV%, 7 Shutouts
Did you know Hank had 10 shutouts last year? That's crazy right? The defense got better in the offseason with the addition of Redden and good two way forwards. Consistency gets Hank the nod here. You know what you're going to get from him.
7. Chris Osgood, Det
Projected Stats: 32 W, 2.14 GAA, .913 SV%, 4 Shutouts
Ozzie shined last year, forcing the retirement of the Dominator and leading Detroit to the Cup. I think a very good case could have been made for Osgood for Conn Smythe but maybe I'm just underestimating how good that D is. Just because he's an injury risk you should handcuff Osgood with Conklin a little later on. Detroit's goaltending isn't a bad place to be though.
8. Pascal Leclaire, Clb
Projected Stats: 26 W, 2.20 GAA, .918 SV%, 6 Shutouts
Last year was not a fluke. Leclaire is really that good. Unfortunately the team itself isn't yet and their division is getting increasingly tough. If you take Leclaire, which you should, you will pretty much doom yourself to rolling with three starters or two starters and two good backups, but its worth it for the stats he will bring you. I've got you covered though.
9. Marty Turco, Dal
Projected Stats: 38 W, 2.25 GAA, .912 SV%, 4 Shutouts
Turco has no one pushing him this year. That could be for the best as he has generally excelled when he isn't fighting for his job and that will guarantee more wins for you. This is a very good Dallas team.
10. Ilya Bryzgalov, Pho
Projected Stats: 33 W, 2.39 GAA, .917 SV%, 5 Shutouts
Breezy single-handedly (glovedly? blockeredly?) lifted Phoenix up by their skate laces with his arrival last season. I see no reason that his excellence shouldn't continue on this improved Phoenix team. I'm a little concerned at the loss of Ballard on defense but Breezy's stats are SO much better then any goalie has played for Phoenix for the last few years that I'm inclined to believe that thats mostly his own doing.
11. Mikka Kipprusoff, Cgy
Projected Stats: 40 W, 2.42 GAA, .915 SV%, 5 Shutouts
Kipper was abysmal last season. Whether he's been overworked or the holes in his game have just started to come to light he has been steadily declining for the last several years. I don't believe it will continue. He isn't, at the moment, a top ten option but he's a really really good second goalie because he has world's of upside.
12. Marc Andre Fleury, Pitt
Projected Stats: 36 W, 2.45 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 Shutouts
I unapologetically do not believe in MAF. He has yet to impress me in the regular season. I have seen him steal maybe two games but I've also seen him, by himself, lose about 10. I'm also of the opinion that this team lost a lot in the offseason. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he steps up and becomes an elite option, but I'll wait until he does to put him in the top ten.
13. Cristobal Huet, Chi
Projected Stats: 28 W 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, 4 Shutouts
I want to put him higher, because I believe that he is a starter and not a member of a platoon. However, all of the rhetoric coming out of the windy city... well I guess not all of it but all of the hockey related rhetoric... suggests otherwise. I expect that Khabibulin will be moved at some point this year, but until he is Huet will be at least splitting some time with the Bulin Sieve.
14. Martin Biron, Phi
Projected Stats: 34 W, 2.42 GAA, .916 SV%, 5 Shutouts
Biron won the job in the playoffs last year. Anyone who thinks otherwise didn't watch the first two rounds. Philly is only going to get better as their young talent (spread across three lines) gets more experience.
15. Carey Price, Mon
Projected Stats: 33 W, 2.52 GAA, .915 SV%, 3 Shutouts
Ok so he got thrown into the spotlight last year with mixed results. Its not that I don't like Price, I do. I had him on my team last year too. I just don't like his situation, and his GAA. The Huet trade doesn't indicate as much confidence as the media is speculating. Montreal found itself with three goalies so they traded the one they couldn't see themselves being able to sign in the offseason. That still leaves you with two goalies. Halak has played very well when called upon. Expect a tandem for at least one more year (Montreal signed Halak to a three year deal in the offseason) unless Price really establishes himself early.
16. Tomas Vokoun, Fla
Projected Stats: 31 W, 2.62 GAA, .919 SV%, 3 Shutouts
A good goalie with a great defense in front of him. Vokoun isn't going to win you many games, because the offense is somewhat less impressive in the sunshine state, but he is still a solid option.
17. Dan Ellis, Nash
Projected Stats: 31 W, 2.38 GAA, .916 SV%, 5 Shutouts
I'm fairly convinced that Ellis is going to have a very good year as Nashville's starter. Unless he stumbles he shouldn't face too much competition from Pekka Rinne, and he was pretty incredible last year (6 shutouts in only 37 starts!). Why so low then? Can you guys say Chris Mason? Mason had a great season backing up Vokoun and then was ABYSMAL last year which is the reason we're even talking about Ellis. If you draft him do your homework and check those Nashville box scores nightly. He could be a steal or he could be an absolutely "Batman & Robin" level disaster.
18. Jose Theodore, Wash
Projected Stats: 32 W, 2.40 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 Shutouts
Did someone say disaster? No discussion of disasters would be complete without Jose Theodore. Theodore is the obvious starter in Washington. He has that going for him. He's also playing in a much weaker division then the one he had his re-birth in last season. Thats another plus. Here are the negatives. Before last season the last time he had a sub-3.00 GAA was 2003-2004. Ditto for an over 9.00 SV%. He was stunning at times last season... unfortunately those times did not include the second round match up with Detroit. Be careful with Theodore... draft casual if you will.
19. Ryan Miller, Buff
Projected Stats: 34 W, 2.58 GAA, .909 SV%, 3 Shutouts
I spoke to soon, we're not done with disasters. I think Miller is very good if a little absent-minded. I don't think we've seen the best he has to offer yet, unfortunately I don't think we will for some time if this Buffalo team keeps up its seemingly all encompassing goal of attaining basement dweller status. Not satisfied with last seasons mediocrity they traded Brian Campbell and sought no legitimate replacement for him on the blue line. Miller will be OK, but not much beyond that.
20. Mathieu Garon, Edm
Projected Stats: 30 W, 2.56 GAA, .914 SV%, 4 Shutouts
The GAA is troubling but the rest of his stats are good. I have trouble saying this but I have a feeling Edmonton is going to be very good this year. Garon had a good season last year and should continue that in his first year as Edmonton's full time starter.
21. Ty Conklin, Det
Projected Stats: 15 W, 2.35 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 Shutouts
He's going to start at least 30 games this year you figure, with Ozzie's history, and he put in a sterling performance in a similar role in Pittsburgh last year. Now he has the league's best Defense in front of him. Don't be the guy that drafts Osgood and doesn't get himself Osgood insurance as well.
22. Manny Legace, St. Lou.
Projected Stats: 26 W, 2.50 GAA, .910 SV%, 4 Shutouts
Manny is going to get hurt. Manny is now backed by Chris Mason. Manny will see less ice time but still put up very good numbers in the other categories. Draft the much-maligned Manny as a solid third goalie, he won't let you down.
23. Cam Ward, Car
Projected Stats: 35 W, 2.72, GAA, .906 SV%, 4 Shutouts
Ward will give you the most wins that you can possibly get this late in the draft, but they come at a price. Cam has never impressed in the regular season, but everyone remembers that one playoff run. He's only 24, so there is plenty of time for him to improve and maybe this is the year, but keep this troubling stat in mind... those projected numbers, with the exception of wins, would all represent career highs.
24. Tim Thomas, Bos
Projected Stats: 22 W, 2.46 GAA, .913 SV%, 2 Shutouts
Yea Thomas had an, at times, great year but this year he will ACTUALLY split time with someone, either Tuuka Rask (painfully, hysterically close to Took a Risk) or Manny Fernandez so his numbers should decline some. I don't want to talk about any of that right now. I want to tell you about the time Tim Thomas ruined my life. I was vacationing in Vegas with my brothers and father 2 years ago for March Madness. I don't know a damn thing about basketball and so I was trying to make up some of my mornings losses by betting hockey. Ottawa was playing Boston and I believe Ottawa was in the middle of a massive winning streak. So I bet a massive parlay bet... three in fact... and Ottawa over Boston is my lock on all three bets with a lot of less sure things mixed in.
I would have won two of three cards (for about a 900 dollar return on 30 dollars worth of betting) if Tim Thomas hadn't shut out the Sens. When he won he celebrated like it was the freaking Stanley Cup Finals and he had shut them out in Game 7. He punched the sky with his stick and it felt like he was the weird shaman guy in Temple of Doom punching my heart. For some odd reason, even though this was a totally meaningless game in the middle of March Madness, this highlight was playing on ESPN wherever we went for the rest of the weekend. I can still see it without even closing my eyes. I hate you Tim Thomas.
25. Kari Lehtonen, Atl
Projected Stats: 23 W, 2.76 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 Shutouts
Upside puts Lehtonen above our next ranked player. Atlanta is a terrible team. Lehtonen is a good goalie with a wonky groin. If he stays healthy he'll win some games by himself and give you a solid save percentage. If he doesn't... well you wasted a late round pick on a third goalie that you can replace on waivers. Shoot me.
26. Mike Smith, TB
Projected Stats: 20 W, 2.42 GAA, .905 SV%, 3 Shutouts
Smith will at least START the season as Tampa's starter but like so many of their other positions this one is murky and crowded. He gets the nod here because I believe he is, at this point, the best option and the most likely to see a significant level of starts but Olaf Kolzig and Karri Rammo should be kept an eye on as I believe anyone who distinguishes themself will get a shot on this team this year. There's too much money riding on it not too.
27. Rick Dipietro, NYI
Projected Stats: 28 W, 2.76 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 Shutouts
I've seen some bad teams in my day, but not too many worse then this Islander team. Remember Rick had his hip and knee operated on in the offseason... important parts for a goalie. Don't fret Islander fans. Its not like he has 13 years left on his contract or anything.
28. Nikolai Khabibulin, Chi
Projected Stats: 13 W, 2.53 GAA, .908 SV%, 2 Shutouts
Those are Khabibulin's stats if he stays on Chicago. Khabi is going to start the season as the most expensive backup in history. A trade can't be far off, to Ottawa perhaps?
29. Martin Gerber, Ott
Projected Stats: 19 W, 2.74 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 Shutouts
If you draft Gerber you have to draft Auld. I wouldn't recommend drafting either as neither has ever really impressed and this team, outside of its first line, kind of imploded in the offseason. Look for Ottawa to remedy their goaltending problem pretty quickly or for heads to roll in the front office.
30. Jaroslav Halak, Mon
Projected Stats, 10 W, 2.43 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 Shutout
Price's handcuff. Halak could end up playing a significant amount this season, or he could play about 15 games. That uncertainty is the only thing putting him this low on the list. A solid stat boosting option.
31. Josh Harding, Minn
Projected Stats: 11 W, 2.62 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 Shutout
Backstrom's handcuff. Harding is a good goalie in his own right, and I would expect Minnesota to trade one of Harding or Backstrom, if they find themselves in contention, for some scoring help later on in the season.
32. Vesa Toskala, Tor
Projected Stats: 28 W, 2.75 GAA, .902 SV%, 2 Shutouts
Do you get the feeling that Joseph took the job as the backup in Toronto just to watch someone else go through the media scrutiny he did? What other reason could he have for returning to the site of his completely unwarranted villification? Toskala, like most of Toronto, is in for a rough year. CuJo's in for some good laughs.
33. Peter Budaj, Col
Projected Stats: 19 W, 2.68 GAA, .904 SV%, 1 Shutout
How bad is Budaj? There is actually a question about whether he or Raycroft will start. I rest my case. See all of those other options above you? Pick 3 of them and let this be someone else's mistake.
34. Jason LaBarbera, LA
Projected Stats: 17 W, 2.90 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 Shutout
One of these years the Kings are going to be good. All of their young talent will emerge, their defense will for once not be a series of personalities and will actually play like the collection of high draft picks that it always is and either LaBarbera or Bernier will have an amazing season. And then Hannibal from the A-Team will step out onto the ice as the Kings raise the Stanley Cup and say "I love it when a plan comes together" and Mr. T will throw the Stanley Cup into next year...yea... one of these years.
35. Alex Auld, Ott
Projected Stats: 12 W, 2.71 GAA, .907 SV%, 2 Shutout
I could have picked a lot of goalies for Mr. Insignificant: Chris Mason in St. Louis (who I like to be all right btw), Jonathan Bernier in LA (who is at least another year off from being significant enough to be this insignificant), Manny Fernandez in Boston (who you should remember was traded from Minnesota even though his coach was his father in law) or your Mom (who is shockingly a better option in net then Andrew Raycroft) but instead I chose Alex. I feel like he has the best combination of talent and situation. You can win the starters job away from Gerber as long as you have a pair of pads and a pulse (so tell your Mom to go buy some pads!). Ottawa is going to be a battleground in net this year. Keep your eye on it and don't be surprised if the starter at the end of the year isn't anyone currently on the team.
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