TEAM PREVIEWS: THE BUFFALO SABRES

Introduction:

So as I'm typing this sentence we are a half hour away from the deadline to announce your opening day rosters for NHL clubs. This is significant in the NEW NHL because of the salary cap. This is significant for the Sabres because they need to find some defense... fast... and there are a couple of interesting individuals available on waivers as we speak (check back later for my plea in relation to Kyle McLaren).

The Sabres, like the Bruins, will benefit this season from being in a division that only has one clear playoff team, the Montreal Canadiens, and what is bound to be the worst team in hockey, I respectfully submit the Toronto Maple Leafs, but how far will it take them? If they want that 8 seed bad enough its theirs.

Key Departures:
Steve Bernier
Dmitri Kalinin
Brian Campbell

Bernier... they hardly knew ye.

Kalinin was and is a solid defensive defenseman, exactly the Sabres were already short on before they lost him.

Campbell was traded away at the trade deadline, so its not exactly fair to mention him here but I thought it would be instructive for the next section. Campbell was traded to San Jose to run the powerplay.

New Faces:
Craig Rivet

Craig Rivet was signed from San Jose in the offseason... to replace... the... production that Brian...

Wait a minute. Does this seem stupid to anyone else? San Jose was having trouble getting the powerplay to click with Rivet quarterbacking it. So they traded Bernier to Buffalo and brought in Campbell. So Buffalo, seeing that San Jose's powerplay didn't work with Rivet as the quarterback signed Rivet in the offseason to...quarterback... their... powerplay.

This just seems like bad business to me folks. If you've got a good working dishwasher do you sell it to your friend with the broken dishwasher and then steal his broken dishwasher off the street once your dishes start piling up? No.

The Offense:
Buffalo is kind of a puzzle on this front. They are loaded with young, fast forwards, only about two of whom are above 6 foot. And while they all have talent it seems that only two of them are allowed to actually exercise that talent and/or be healthy at any one time. Maybe another year without Drury and Briere has helped them coalesce into a team. Maybe it will be another year without the playoffs.

You Want to Draft:
Derek Roy
Jason Pominville
Thomas Vanek

The definition of the new NHL, Roy is a speedy undersized player with heart and energy. He has steadily picked up his game over the last two seasons to the point that he is now THE franchise center for this team. Draft him with confidence and hope that his powerplay numbers can improve slightly this season.
FACT: Roy won nearly every major trophy the OHL had to offer including OHL rookie of the year and OHL Memorial Cup MVP.

Pominville took the biggest leap forward last season of any player on the Sabres. while his goal total fell of a bit, Pominville discovered his transition and passing game. I would expect Pominville's goal total to stabilize a bit this season, around 30 or so, and for his defensive game to improve even more. He is a quality option at RW in any league.
FACT: Jason Pominville has dual citizenship in both the USA and Canada. He has thusfar chosen to represent the USA in international competition. Take that Canada.

Vanek. You will want to draft him. I won't, but you will, and you should. I love the guy. I think he has all the talent in the world and at 24 has yet to show us what he is really capable of. That said while other forwards stepped up in Drury and Briere's absence Vanek suffered. He dropped 20 points in his overall point total from the season before, likely because he was now THE primary focus of the other teams' top defenders. Draft him expecting 70 points and you won't be disappointed. Expect anything more and it is almost guaranteed that you will.
FACT: As a member of the Minnesota Golden Gophers Thomas Vanek led the nation in scoring in the 2002-2003 season as a freshman. He also led the Gophers to a national championship and was awarded the MVP of the frozen four and the WCHA rookie of the year trophies.

You Want to Keep an Eye On:
Maxim Afinogenov
Tim Connolly
Just about any other forward not named Patrick Kaleta

Afinogenov was probably hurt the most by the departure of Buffalo's co-captains last year. After two largely successful years Afinogenov only managed 28 points in 56 games last season. The speculation is that he is on his way out this summer when his contract expires. A new start is a powerful motivator. Expect Afinogenov to try to change some team's minds about him this season.
FACT: Afinogenov has never once played all 82 games.

Connolly is a healthy season away from being a point a game center. That's it. Health. That is the only reason I'm not putting him above. He spent 4 years injury free, then hit his prime and lost his edge. Watch for hot streaks, otherwise known as the times between his stints in the ER, and beware the dreaded concussion.
FACT: Connolly, when healthy, is a playmaker in the mold of Adam Oates. 171 of his 241 career points came in the form of assists.

The Defense:
The D is going to be stretched thin this year. Rivet is an GOOD hockey player but he in no way makes up for the losses of both Kalinin and Campbell. The Sabres lost many players to big contracts at the same time. No team has been hurt more by the realities of the salary cap than this squad but at some point they need to make the bleeding stop.

You Want to Draft:
Craig Rivet
Jaroslav Spacek

Rivet will give you PIM but I wouldn't expect a repeat of the 35 points from last season. Draft him with caution, this team is not as gifted on the powerplay as San Jose. Remember that.
FACT: Rivet is the new captain of the Buffalo Sabres... as of today.

Spacek is often injured, but is capable of putting together a 40 point season if he can stay healthy. His other numbers have been erratic throughout his career. If he can stay healthy he will still be the pointman on the first powerplay unit, but that is a big IF.
FACT: Spacek is a bit of a journeyman, having played games for 7 different NHL teams during his career.

The Powerplay:
Roy
Vanek
Pominville
Connolly
Spacek

Magically, when the season starts, all of these forwards will be healthy. This unit had some trouble catching on last year, but it is too talented not to catch fire, at least for stretches of the year.

The Goalie(s):

Ryan Miller at first received more credit then he deserved and is now shouldering more of the blame then he deserves. Miller is a very good young goalie and he will remain among the elite throughout his career. His GAA and SV. % will improve as the team's defense improves... which is to say not this year. I would say he is an adequate second goalie if you can balance him with a good statistical goalie like Leclaire or Backstrom. He'll get you wins but not a whole lot else.
FACT: Miller is one of the few goalies other then Evgeni Nabakov and Martin Brodeur to play a hybrid style of goaltending as opposed to the butterfly system, championed by Patrick Roy.

The Verdict:

The Sabres are a tough team to peg this year. If guys like Afinogenov can step up, guys like Connolly can stay healthy, and Craig Rivet can provide a stabilizing influence on the D then maybe they can be competitors. The safer bet is that Buffalo is still a year or two and few pieces away from achieving the heights of the 06-07 season.